Australia Stock Market

australia stock market

Posted on 04 July 2009

australia stock market ,australia stock market news,asx news

Bank on the Bank of Queensland?

Would it be the time to confidently come back on the financial stocks? The technical analysis gives us a few arguments for a positive answer. First example with Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ).

— The weekly chart shows that, despite the rebound started in last March, the price action has only retraced a small part of the huge decline triggered at the beginning of the financial crisis, in October 2007.

— In details, we can see that between the historical high posted in October 2007 ($19.54, point A on the chart) and the low posted in last March ($6.30, point B), the price declined by 68%. The bounce has already driven twice the price towards the first Fibonacci retracement (the ratio of 23.6%) in last April. This level (at $9.5) acted as a first resistance for the rebound: once reached, the price action immediately corrected and fell back to $7.50 in May.

— It eventually bounced back quickly and is now around $9. The weekly indicators have been remaining oriented upward since March. The MACD, for instance, is bullish as it has been rising well above its moving average for more than 3 months now. There are no signs that it may peak soon. This of course does not mean that short-term corrections are not possible, but it clearly indicates that on medium-term outlook is on the upside.

— It is likely that another attempt to break above the level of $9.50 will occur in the coming weeks. While numerous stocks and indices peaked during the first fortnight of June, BOQ has been strongly backed. The 10-day moving average (MA) has crossed above both the 40-day and the 100-day moving averages. This shows that the short-term has been bullish. As long as the current moving averages configuration remains identical (10-day MA above 40-day MA and 40-day MA above 100-day MA), the bullish picture is still valid.

— The first target in this scenario is $9.50. But as the medium-term outlook is positive, a further rise is probable. The next resistance level identified is the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, around $11.5. Eventually, the main target would be the 50% retracement level, at $13.

— The idea would be then to BUY the stock BOQ at the current level, around $9. Place your take-profit at $11.35, just below the 38.2% ratio level. The stop-loss should just below $8, say at $7.95.

Suncorp-Metway Under The Sun?

— This is another example. Another bank, Queensland based. The overall configuration is quite similar to BOQ. One axiom of technical analysis is that same causes product same consequences.

— The global picture is almost identical: huge decline of the stock price in 2007 and 2008, a low point posted recently in last March and small rebound so far, rising medium-term indicators, therefore some real potential upside in the following months. Let’s see that in details.

— The decline: started in February 2007 (point A on the weekly chart), when the price was above $21). A succession of bearish waves more or less intense led the price to the low of $4.36, posted in early March this year (point B). This is a plunge of 80% in 2 years.

— Of course there had been a few rebounds during this long-term bearish trend. Those were technical counter-trends generated when the price was obviously oversold or when support levels were reached. Today the price is moving around $6.50. The rebound so far is only a slight retracement of the 2-years decline. We can’t assert yet that this long-term bearish trend is over.

— However we expect the current bullish move to rise further before a potential completion. The weekly MACD has a bullish shape: oriented upward and well above its moving average.

— On the daily chart, the stock has been traded in a tight range for the last 3 months. The price action has failed several times to overcome a gap created in early February this year. This is an immediate resistance that did not trigger any large correction. A move above $7 is probable (above the gap) and it would trigger new “long” positions. The Relative Momentum Index shows that some buying pressure exists and that there is no overbought configuration.

— Actually the real target for the rebound initiated in March is likely to be the very first retracement level of the 2-years decline. First because it is usually the first significative objective after a long-term trend, and second because it also corresponds to the low of 2003 (when the stock bounced as well as the global stock markets). Previous lows become new highs. That’s why the objective here is around $8.5.

— With a medium-term perspective, the trade idea is therefore: BUY the stock SUN on the current levels (around $6.50). Place your stop-loss below the low of May, say at $5.50. Place your take-profit at $8.5.

Comments (0)

US Stock Market

GM bankruptcy exit hearing closes

Posted on 03 July 2009

NEW YORK (AFP) - - The fate of General Motors was placed in the hands of a New York judge Thursday who must decide whether the largest US automaker can execute a swift exit from bankruptcy protection by selling its best assets to a new company.

“We’re adjourned,” Judge Robert Gerber said around 4:00 pm (2000 GMT) after three days of hearings in which a host of creditors mounted objections to the plan which will create a leaner GM unburdened by old debts and supported by billions in government loans.

GM’s lawyers and chief executive officer argued that the asset sale is the only way to save the struggling automaker from a devastating liquidation through the more lengthy Chapter 11 bankruptcy process.

Gerber did not indicate when he would publish his decision and told the various parties to send their final requests to him by e-mail.

Sources close to the case said the decision could come as early as this weekend as several lawyers said they could file their final motions on Friday and Saturday.

In the precedent-setting case of rival Chrysler’s bankruptcy, the judge published his approval of the asset sale on the weekend on the court’s website.

Under the proposed plan, the US government will own 60.8 percent of the capital in exchange for some 50 billion dollars in emergency loans.

Canada, which also provided billions in loans, will have 11.7 percent and a United Auto Workers retiree health care trust fund will hold 17.5 percent.

Creditors holding GM bonds will swap 27.1 billion dollars in debt for a 10-percent stake and warrants allowing them to buy an additional 15-percent stake.

Comments (0)

World News

ECB keeps interest rate steady

Posted on 03 July 2009

LUXEMBOURG (AFP) - - The European Central Bank kept its main interest rate steady at a record low of 1.0 percent Thursday as ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet downplayed a threat of deflation gutting the eurozone.

The ECB expects “the current episode of extremely low or negative inflation rates to be short-lived,” Trichet told a press conference two days after an EU estimate said eurozone consumer prices had fallen for the first time in June.

Economists are concerned the 16-nation bloc’s economy will struggle to recover from recession if consumer prices fall broadly over a sustained period.

That encourages households to postpone purchases in expectation of still lower prices, undermines production and threatens job numbers that are now starting to contract sharply in countries like Ireland and Spain.

Trichet repeated an ECB estimate that the eurozone should begin to see a gradual recovery of economic growth by mid-2010, while leaving the door open to another interest rate cut.

He said the governing council’s decision to leave rates unchanged, which was unanimous, did not mean “this was the lowest level we would ever attain under any circumstances.”

ING economist Carsten Brzeski commented that after a rate cut in May, the presentation of unconventional measures in June and a massive loan operation last week, “the ECB has now released the accelerator and switched to cruise control.”

In Sweden, which is not a eurozone member, central bank officials cut their key interest rate to a record low of 0.25 percent Thursday to boost that country’s flagging economy.

But in Iceland, the central bank held its key rate at 12 percent following four cuts in the last three months.

The ECB wants to see what will emerge from its unorthodox plan to buy low-risk corporate bonds and record loans to commercial banks last week that were meant to boost credit to the economy as a whole.

With the economy floundering, the ECB launched an enormous life raft, lending banks 442 billion euros (626 billion dollars) for a year at 1.0 percent.

It was the central bank’s first 12-month refinancing operation and drew an all-time high of more than 1,100 commercial banks.

Trichet told reporters: “We were happy with the result of this liquidity supply.

“The amplitude of this operation is in our eyes the proof of the pertinence of this channel for our enchanced credit supply,” he added in reference to an ECB focus on keeping banks at the center of its monetary policies.

But the ECB chief stressed the exceptional measures must “be accompanied” by an appropriate “joint effort” from commercial banks.

Trichet said he and the ECB governors “have not envisaged any new measures or operations” to spur economic activity.

With economic data and surveys suggesting the eurozone’s economic freefall has slowed in recent months, “the ECB clearly believes that it can afford to stand back in the near term at least and monitor what impact its various policy moves are having,” IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said.

Brzeski added that “despite the parallels with Japan in the 1990s, the ECB still appears not concerned with deflation at all.

“The D-word is being avoided.”

Finally, the ECB said it would ensure that its extraordinary measures “are quickly unwound and that the liquidity provided is absorbed” as soon as the economic climate improved.

It urged eurozone governments to do likewise, saying they “should prepare and communicate ambitious and realistic fiscal exit and consolidation strategies” after approving massive stimulus packages to combat the worst global recession in six decades.

Comments (0)

Singapore Stock Market, Stock Market, World News

RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks slip, drop limited after US data

Posted on 03 July 2009

MSCI Asia ex-Japan falls 0.6%, holds up vs US market slide

Oil and copper extend fall, but higher-yielding FX edge up

* JGB 10-yr yield hits 3-mth low, Japan investors buy Treasuries

By Eric Burroughs

HONG KONG, July 3 - Asian stocks retreated on Friday and the dollar edged up after a disappointingly big drop in U.S. employment prompted investors to pull back from commodities, resource-linked shares and higher-yielding currencies.

But the equity market decline across Asia was limited as the report showing that U.S. companies slashed nearly half a million jobs in June did not shake hopes that a slow recovery is under way. [ID:nN02549309]

The Australian dollar, whose 12 percent surge against the U.S. dollar this year has been closely tied to the four-month rally in stocks, edged up as the U.S. payrolls report had limited fallout.

Analysts at Rabobank said the U.S. jobs report was a “reality check” for investors who had become overly optimistic about how quickly the global economy could recover from its deepest recession in decades.

Oil and copper extended their slide. U.S. crude struck a one-month low and was down 27 cents a barrel at $66.46 <CLc1>. Government bonds jumped, with the benchmark Japanese 10-year yield touching a three-month low.

“Share losses were limited as investors here did not necessarily take it as a sign of a further slowdown of global economies. Belief that economic fundamentals are near their bottom is still firm here,” said Won Jong-hyuck, a market analyst at SK Securities in Seoul.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> dipped 0.6 percent and was down about 1 percent during the first three trading days of the third quarter.

In the April-June quarter, the MSCI benchmark for Asian shares surged 32 percent — its biggest quarterly gain since 1993 — on investor hopes that Asia’s emerging economies would help lead the global economy out of the doldrums.

Japan’s Nikkei average <.N225> shed 1 percent, dragged down by a 6.3 percent slide in Seven & I Holdings <3382.T> when the operator of department stores and supermarkets reported an unexpected drop in quarterly profit. Shares of oil distributor Nippon Oil <5001.T> lost 2.6 percent.

Asian stocks held up relatively well after the U.S. S&P 500 <.SPX> slid 2.9 percent on the jobs data. U.S. markets are closed later in the day in observance of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

In currencies, the dollar edged up as investors favoured the greenback as a safe haven while positions in riskier currencies and assets were cut.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, edged up slightly to 80.324 <=USD>.

The euro slipped slightly to $1.3990 <EUR=> from near $1.4003 in late New York trade, down from a one-month peak near $1.42 hit earlier in the week and hit by hedge fund selling before the long U.S. weekend. The dollar was little changed at 95.96 yen <JPY=>.

The worries about the recovery outlook added fuel to gains in government bonds.

The 10-year JGB yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> was down 2.5 basis points at 1.330 percent, with some buying spurred after an auction of the maturity found solid demand the previous day despite a bigger monthly amount to help pay for stimulus spending.

But Japan’s low yields have prompted domestic investors to go abroad in search of higher returns.

Data from the Ministry of Finance on Thursday showed domestic investors snapped up 1.53 trillion yen of foreign bonds in the weekend ending June 27, the biggest such weekly purchases in four years. Analysts said those purchases were mainly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries.

Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields are about 2.2 percentage points above JGB yields, holding near the widest such level in eight months and making them attractive to Japanese investors.

Comments (9)

China Stock Market, Mining

China Stocks Fluctuate; Energy Companies Gain, Metals Decline

Posted on 03 July 2009

July 3 (Bloomberg) — China’s stocks fluctuated as energy producers gained on speculation power demand is recovering, while metals producers fell.

Datang International Power Generation Co. jumped 4 percent after the China Securities Journal said the nation’s electricity output gained in June, its first monthly advance since October. Jiangxi Copper Co. retreated 2.9 percent as a report showing U.S. employers cut more jobs than forecast in June dragged down commodities prices.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.61, or 0.1 percent, to 3,056.64 as of 10:07 a.m., after changing direction at least four times. It’s up 4.4 percent this week as a government survey showed manufacturing expanded for a fourth month in June. The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, declined 0.3 percent to 3,274.21.

“The U.S. jobs report raises the question about whether China’s recovery can be sustained, given that hope of bolstering growth through external demand in the second half looks slim,” said Li Jun, a strategist at Central China Securities Holdings Co. in Shanghai.

The Shanghai index has rebounded 68 percent in 2009, the world’s second-best performer, on evidence a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan and record lending is reviving the economy. The gauge lost 65 percent last year as the global recession curbed demand for the country’s exports. China is the world’s second-largest exporter.

Shares on the gauge trade at 29.6 times earnings, the most expensive since March 2008, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Power Demand

Datang International gained 4.1 percent to 8.61 yuan. China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s largest coal producer, climbed 2.8 percent to 32.70 yuan. Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., the listed unit of China’s fifth-largest producer, gained 2.7 percent to 31.06 yuan.

China’s electricity output gained 3.6 percent in June, the China Securities Journal reported today, citing China State Grid Corp. Power output at the end of June rose 7 percent from a year earlier as warm weather increased demand for electricity, it said. Liu Xinfang, a State Grid press official, didn’t immediately answer calls to his office today seeking comment.

The news follows a report by the state-run Xinhua News Agency that power demand in the nation’s manufacturing hub of Guangdong rose in June.

Jiangxi Copper slid 1.7 percent to 32.89 yuan. Western Mining Co., China’s fourth-largest maker of zinc concentrate, dropped 1.6 percent to 15.24 yuan.

Comments (7)

US Stock Market

Weak US jobs data dashes quick recovery hopes

Posted on 03 July 2009

WASHINGTON (AFP) - - US job losses surged to 467,000 in June, pushing the unemployment rate to a new 26-year high of 9.5 percent, according to data Thursday that dampened hopes for an early recovery from recession.

The Labor Department report, seen as one of the best indicators of economic momentum, reversed the improvement seen last month when job losses fell to a revised 322,000.

Analysts had expected a smaller June number of 365,000 job losses, but a higher unemployment rate of 9.6 percent. The jobless rate in May was 9.4 percent.

“The disappointing report highlights the severity of the downturn and suggests a bottom for employment is not near,” said Sophia Koropeckyj at Moody’s Economy.com.

“The labor market’s struggles continue, and there is little indication that conditions are improving.”

Meny Grauman, economist at CIBC World Markets, said some analysts have gotten ahead of themselves in anticipating an economic recovery.

“This shows the recession lives on in the United States,” he added.

“It’s a question of the pace of decline and not recovery. The economy continues to contract at a slower pace than at the beginning of this year, but it’s still a steep ride.”

Since the recession began in December 2007, the world’s biggest economy has lost 6.5 million jobs and the jobless rate has risen 4.6 percentage points.

“The disappointment was not just the size of the job losses but the fact that they were so widespread,” noted Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets.

“The outlook is still uncertain so companies are reluctant to hire even if demand is picking up.”

Guatieri said the economy’s troubles suggest a risk of a self-reinforcing downward spiral fed by weak demand that leads to job cuts and lower incomes, cutting consumer spending that is the lifeblood of the economy.

“This is just one month’s report but if it is followed by another disappointing report in July we might have to revise our figures downward for the third quarter” for the US economy.

The report showed employment in manufacturing fell by 136,000 over the past month, boosting the total for the recession to 1.9 million job losses.

The key services sector lost 244,000 jobs including 21,000 in retail last month, the report showed.

All sectors showed job losses except education and health care, which gained 34,000 in June.

Another disappointment was that average hours worked in the private sector — sometimes seen as a proxy for economic activity — fell 0.8 percent in June, while overall incomes were flat.

“Wages will soon be falling outright, a classic deflation signal,” said Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics.

In a separate report on weekly jobless claims which provides one of the freshest indicators of economic sentiment, the Labor Department said the number of new claims fell by 16,000 to 614,000 in the week ending June 27.

The four-week moving average for new claims was 615,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised figure.

The update showed a decrease in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits by 53,000 to 6,702,000 in the week to June 20.

The US economy shrank at a 5.5 percent pace in the first quarter, based on the lastest official estimate, following a 6.3 percent slide in the fourth quarter of 2008 — representing the worst slump in decades, resulting from the collapse of a housing bubble and global credit squeeze.

President Barack Obama warned last month ago that “it’s pretty clear now that unemployment will end up going over 10 percent” and said it would take time for an economic recovery to translate into job growth.

Comments (0)

World News

world stock market news

Posted on 03 July 2009

NEW YORK - A dour report on job losses in the United States in June sent stocks sharply lower.
The Labor Department reported that US employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, pushing the unemployment rate to a fresh 26-year high of 9.5 per cent.
Analysts had expected a smaller number of 365,000 job losses, but a higher unemployment rate of 9.6 per cent. The jobless rate in May was 9.4 per cent.
Ahead of a long weekend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 223.32 points, or 2.63 per cent, to settle at 8,280.74.
The Nasdaq fell 49.2 points, or 2.67 per cent, to 1,796.52 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 broad-market index fell 26.91 points, or 2.91 per cent, to settle at 896.42.

LONDON - European stock markets suffered sharp sell-offs on news of greater-than-expected job losses in the US.
The London FTSE 100 index fell 106.44 points, or 2.45 per cent, to close at 4,234.27 points.

FRANKFURT - The Dax dropped 186.95 points, or 3.81 per cent, to 4,718.49.

PARIS - The CAC 40 lost 100.59 points, or 3.13 per cent, to 3,116.41 points.

TOKYO - Asian markets were mixed as investors sought firm signals ahead of the US jobs data.
The benchmark Nikkei-225 index lost 63.78 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 9,876.15 points.

HONG KONG - The Hang Seng Index lost 200.68 points, or 1.09 per cent, to 18,178.05.

WELLINGTON - The New Zealand share market drifted lower amid directionless trade.
The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed down 12.184 points, or 0.438 per cent, at 2,768.185 after opening higher.

SYDNEY - The Australian sharemarket is expected to open significantly lower after heavy falls on Wall Street and European markets.
Oil and base metal prices also plummeted, likely to spark falls in local resources stocks.
At 0715 AEST on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September share price index contract was 82 points lower at 3,779.
In economic news on Friday, the Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) for June is due.
In equities news, White Energy Company Ltd, First Opportunity Fund, JV Global Ltd, Red Sky Energy Ltd and Vital Metals Ltd hold general meetings.
The inaugural Delta Airlines Sydney to Los Angeles service will depart.
On Thursday, the Australian share market closed flat after earlier gains were whittled back despite advances in resources stocks and a positive lead from Wall Street.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 3.3 points, or 0.09 per cent, at 3,877.3 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index advanced 2.9 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 3875.2 points.

NYMEX

Oil prices sank under $US67 a barrel after weak jobs data quashed hopes of a speedy economic recovery in the United States, the world’s top energy consumer.
New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, fell $US2.58 from Wednesday’s closing price to $US66.73 per barrel, after earlier touching $US66.54.
London Brent North Sea crude for delivery in August dropped $US2.14 to $US66.65 a barrel.
Prices slumped after a US government report said the unemployment rate rose to a new 26-year high of 9.5 per cent in June.
The figures dampen hopes for an early recovery from recession, and will temper demand, analysts said.
The labor data also caused the US dollar to rise against the euro and yen as traders returned to the safe-haven currency.
A stronger US dollar makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for buyers armed with weaker currencies. In turn, this tends to dampen demand and pull the crude market lower.

COMEX

Looking to safeguard their money amid the weak economic data in the US, traders shied away from commodities in search of more conservative investments.
The dollar moved higher against most other currencies.
Even gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, traded as if it was a risky currency, analysts said.
Gold for August delivery fell $US10.30 to settle at $US931 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
July silver lost 34.7 cents to $US13.393 an ounce, while July copper was down 2.5 cents to $US2.29 a pound.

Comments (0)

Forex Markets

forex trading

Posted on 02 July 2009

Research Note: July 2nd ECB and NFP Outlook

Trading Strategy
(July 1, 2009) The press conference from the European Central Bank and the US Employment Situation report are both scheduled for July 2nd, at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. With the expectation that the ECB meeting will be a non-event and that the US nonfarm payroll number will print weaker than expected, the risks seem to be more heavily weighted towards a weaker EUR/USD here. Should the ECB indeed decide to expand its covered bond program (essentially more quantitative easing) the market will view this as dilutive to EUR in the medium term. Moreover, a worse than anticipated NFP number would likely weigh heavily on risk trades and send the USD higher. Remember that the greenback has seen a near 90% inverse correlation with equities in 2009 thus far, so a sharp leg down in stocks should be decidedly dollar-positive. Based on this view, we would be sellers of EUR/USD going into the 830am ET events. Should EUR/USD still be trading well above the 1.41 zone, we would expect a dip back through there would see losses accelerate, with potential for a revisit to the 1.40 recent lows. Given the potential for thin trading as the US Independence Day holiday approaches, we would advise traders to keep stop-losses tight.

ECB focus to remain on enhanced liquidity provision
Eurozone inflation has turned negative; June CPI registered a decline of -0.1% y/y well below the ECB’s 2.0% target. No policy change is expected from the ECB at its July 2 policy meeting. However, in view of speculation that inflation could remain negative for months, the focus of ECB policy can be expected to remain on enhanced liquidity provision.

In total, the ECB last week lent EUR442 bln in its first one year tender. It may seem inevitable that the sheer size of the liquidity injection should enhance credit availability within the broader economy but previous efforts made by the ECB to promote liquidity have not had the desired impact. The ECB this week reported that Eurozone M3 data rose by 4.5% in May (three-month average) below the 5.2% increase registered in April and well below the 8.2% average rise registered during the past six years. ECB data also show that the annual growth of credit extended to the private sector declined to 3.1% in May from 3.7% in April.

The ECB also announced in May that it plans to buy EUR60 bln covered bonds (due to commence in July). More detail on these purchases may be made available on July 2. However, the size of the plan is small and is unlikely to have any significant EUR impact. The ECB is likely to recognize that economic conditions are stabilizing, though its tone will likely remain cautious. The lack of credit availability remains a prime concern and it feeds the risk that growth will not reappear in the Eurozone until 2010. Consequently, there is little danger of the ECB reigning in its preparedness to inject further liquidity. In tune with the ECB’s anti-inflation credentials, the ECB may make another reference to exit policies though this will likely be along the lines of comments made by the ECB’s Stark last week suggesting that the measures adopted will be unwound swiftly and the liquidity absorbed when macroeconomic conditions improve. The ECB may also make the point that it considers the current position of interest rates ‘appropriate’. This would be taken by the market as a signal that there will be no change in rates at the ECB’s August 6 policy meeting.

Payrolls poised to disappoint
We are looking for a below consensus -410K decline in US nonfarm payrolls for the month of June after a -345K print the prior month. The market estimate is currently -365K and so we are looking for a considerable downside surprise here. For one, we believe the speed of improvement in the latest report, when payrolls dropped -345K after shedding -504K the prior month, was exaggerated and thus we are due for a bit of a bump lower here. Other indicators such as jobless claims and the employment sub-components of industry surveys have improved just modestly, suggesting a decline in employment closer to the -400K level. Private payrolls fell -473K according to ADP and if we take into account that this metric has over-predicted the decline in total NFP by about -50K over the last six months, this points to an NFP of around -425K. The wildcard in the report will be government hiring with regards to the census. Market participants expect the decline to be roughly -50K from this anomaly but anything beyond that could make for an even uglier headline print. We are a touch more aggressive on the unemployment rate call as well, looking for a jump to 9.7% from 9.4%, while the market has settled on an increase to 9.6%.

Comments (1)

Mining

Commodity

Posted on 02 July 2009

Don’t Jump Into This Commodity Just Yet

As many other commodities, wheat prices have peaked in June. A bit earlier actually: at 677 US cents a bushel on June 1st, while stock indices and the CRB index posted a high on June11 or 12.

Over the long term, we can identify several technical patterns on the weekly chart. The current one is an uncertainty triangle built by the green ascending support line and by the red descending resistance line. Those two lines are the lower and upper limits of the trading range since last October. This trading range has been narrowing for the last 9 months. The price action found some support around 475 cents in last December (point A), but some new support higher, around 500 cents, a few months later (point B).

The recent resistance level has been around 675 cents (point C). It is set on a line that comes from August 2007. This line was actually the neckline of a “head-and-shoulders” pattern built by points D (head), E and F (right and left shoulders).

Once cleared, this neckline which was a support level has become a new resistance level. On a weekly basis, the current price action looks bearish. The Commodity Channel Index has just crossed its zero line, showing that there is no medium-term momentum. The 20-week Williams %R is also oriented downward: this oscillator had detected an overbought configuration in early June.

On a daily chart, the Relative Strength Index confirmed this overbought configuration and the following bearish signal. The Money Flow Index indicates that the peak posted at 677 cents triggered some profit-taking as money has gone out of the Wheat futures during the whole month of June.

Because those indicators reach low values, a bottom on the price action may be possible. That’s why we expect a further correction of the price action towards the support line (the lower band of the triangle). The current target could be then the area around 530 cents. Then it would become an opportunity for a new bounce.

Comments (0)

World News

world stock market

Posted on 02 July 2009

NEW YORK - Wall Street shares opened a new month and quarter on an upbeat note, as an encouraging report on the US manufacturing sector helped offset weak news on the labor market.
The market appeared to focus on a report showing signs of improvement in the US manufacturing sector in June even though it failed to grow for a 17th straight month.
That news helped to offset a survey from a payrolls firm showing the US private sector shed 473,000 jobs in June.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 57.06 points, or 0.68 per cent, to settle at 8,504.06.
The Nasdaq climbed 10.68 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 1,845.72 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 broad-market index increased 4.01 points, or 0.44 per cent, to settle at 923.33.

LONDON - European stock exchanges surged ahead in line with a robust opening on Wall Street and in response to the positive US manufacturing data despite worse-than-expected unemployment figures.
The London FTSE 100 index added 91.5 points, or 2.15 per cent, to close at 4,340.71 points.

FRANKFURT - The Dax gained 96.8 points, or 2.01 per cent, to end the session at 4,905.44.

PARIS - The CAC 40 rose 76.56 points, or 2.44 per cent, to 3,217 points.

TOKYO - Japanese shares dropped despite the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showing that business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers had improved for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
Many investors were disappointed because they had hoped for a better reading, dealers said.
The benchmark Nikkei-225 index lost 18.51 points, or 0.19 per cent, at 9,939.93 points.

HONG KONG - Closed for a public holiday.

WELLINGTON - The New Zealand sharemarket closed lower, reflecting weakness in offshore markets.
The benchmark NZSX-50 ended down 15.737 points, or 0.563 per cent, at 2,780.369.

SYDNEY - The Australian sharemarket is expected to open higher after Wall Street rose on positive economic data and commodity prices strengthened.
At 0710 AEST on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September share price index contract was 16 points higher at 3,877.
In economic news on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases international trade in goods and services data and manufacturing production data, both for May.
The Australian Office of Financial Management conducts a tender of $900 million in Treasury notes in two tranches maturing on October 23, 2009, and January 22, 2010.
In equities news, information technology firm ConnXion Ltd holds an extraordinary general meeting.
Tiger Airways Australia will launch its Sydney-Melbourne route.
On Wednesday, the Australian share market started the new financial year on a downbeat note, with major resources and financial stocks losing ground after profit-takers moved in.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index lost 80.9 points, or 2.05 per cent, to 3,874 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index fell 75.5 points, or 1.91 per cent, to 3,872.3 points.

NYMEX

Oil prices fell after bouncing above $US71 as markets reacted to a mixed report on US petroleum inventories.
The US Department of Energy said in its weekly report that American crude oil reserves tumbled 3.7 million barrels in the week ending June 26, the fourth weekly drop in a row.
The market had expected a lighter decline of 2.1 million barrels.
But the department also reported growing domestic inventories of key refined products gasoline and distillates.
New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for August delivery fell 58 cents from Tuesday’s closing price to $US69.31 a barrel.
Brent North Sea crude for August delivery lost 51 cents to $US68.79 per barrel.

COMEX

Prices for gold and other metals rebounded as the US dollar lost ground against other major currencies.
The US dollar declined as stocks moved higher after reports showing stabilisation in the manufacturing sector both in the US and abroad stoked some risk taking among investors.
Precious metals benefit from a weak dollar as investors often use gold as a hedge against inflation.
Metals reversed big losses from the day before that had been sparked by a weak report on consumer sentiment.
Gold for August delivery rose $US13.90 to settle at $US941.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
July silver gained 16.6 cents to $US13.74 an ounce, while July copper was up 5.7 cents to $US2.315 a pound.

Comments (2)

SEE MORE ARTICLES IN THE ARCHIVE

Advertise Here
Advertise Here