Singapore ups growth view but may stand pat on policy,singapore stock market news,singapore stock market ,singapore stockmarket news
Govt ups 2010 GDP growth forecast to 4.5-6.5 pct vs 3-5 pct
* Economy shrank annualised 2.8 pct q/q s/adj in Q4
* Economists expect c.bank to stand pat on policy in Apr
* Inflation outlook lowered slightly due to rebasing of CPI
By Saeed Azhar and Fabian Ng
SINGAPORE, Feb 19 - Singapore raised its economic growth forecast for this year after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter data, citing a pickup in trade and industrial production and stable financial markets.
The government now expects gross domestic product to grow by 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent in 2010, up from a forecast of 3 percent to 5 percent made only a month ago, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Friday.
The economy shrank 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, much better than the initial government estimate of a 6.8 percent contraction made last month.
Economists said the central bank will likely keep its monetary policy unchanged at its next scheduled review in April, citing officials’ concerns about the global economy in the second half of 2010 and benign inflation.
“I don’t think there is an immediate push for them to do anything with monetary policy, given they are still concerned about the second-half outlook,” said Selena Ling, head of treasury research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp in Singapore.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore sets policy by managing the value of the Singapore dollar <SGD=> against a secret basket of currencies. The current policy calls for a stable currency.
“We expect the MAS to maintain its neutral FX policy in April and to tighten only in October,” said Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew.
UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK
The government said its upgrade from the earlier 3.0 percent to 5.0 percent GDP growth forecast reflected “increased strength in the near-term growth momentum”. It brings the official forecast in line with private sector estimates.
“The outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain. Private final demand in the G3 may remain weak, as there are still few indications that non-policy induced private demand is gaining strength,” it said.
Ravi Menon, a permanent secretary at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, told reporters that he was more concerned about private consumption in the United States than sovereign risks in European countries such as Greece and Spain.
Economists expect Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam to announce a number of growth-supporting policies in his 2010/11 budget on Monday.
“Even as the government steps away from the ‘emergency’ mode that the 2009 budget was formulated in, they are likely to retain a ‘better safe than sorry’ stance,” noted Robert Prior-Wandesforde at HSBC in Singapore.
The government raised its 2010 trade growth outlook to a range of 9 percent to 11 percent from an earlier forecast of 7 percent to 9 percent. It expects non-oil domestic exports to rise by 10 percent to 12 percent this year.
It lowered its 2010 inflation forecast to 2 percent to 3 percent from the previous 2.5 percent 3.5 percent due to a rebasing of the consumer price index.
For the whole of 2009, Singapore’s gross domestic product shrank by 2 percent following a revised 1.4 percent rise in 2008.



