Tag Archive | "sgx"

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singapore stock market

Posted on 03 October 2008 by Alex

ALLGREEN PROPERTIES, citi maintain BUY with target price $0.8($1.16)

CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST, nom maintain STRONG BUY with target price $2.33

CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST, jpm maintain OVERWEIGHT with target price
$1.55
($1.52)

CAPITALAND, citi maintain SELL with target price $3.11($3.90)
CAPITALAND, cl maintain BUY with target price $4.82(from $5.45)
CAPITALAND, jpm maintian OVERWEIGHT with target price $7

CREATIVE, mac maintain UNDERPERFORM with target price $4.20($5)

FIRST RESOURCES, citi maintain BUY with target price $1.09($1.42)

INDOFOOD AGRI, csfb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $1.50($2.40)

NOL, db maintain BUY with target price $3.08
NOL, gs maintain SELL with target price $2

PAN HONG, cimb downgrade to NEUTRAL with target price $0.21($0.51)

PARKWAY, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $1.46

SGX, dbs downgrade to SELL with target price $4.80($7)

SINGTEL, daiwa maintain HOLD with target price $3.84
SINGTEL, mac maintain NEUTRAL with target price $3.5

SPH, jpm maintain OVERWEIGHT
SPH, nom maintain NEUTRAL with target price $4.34

STARHUB, daiwa maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.94

ST ENGINEERING, citi maintain BUY with target price $3.20

TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION, uob maintain BUY with target price BT 55.43

WILLAS-ARRAY, ocbc downgrade to SELL with target price $0.09($0.18)

WILMAR, csfb upgrade to OUTPERFORM with target price $3.88($4.80)

WINGTAI, citi maintain BUY with target price $1.20($2)
WINGTAI, uob maintain BUY with target price $1.35($1.90)

YANLORD LAND, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $1.32($3.07)

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 03 October 2008 by Alex

ALLCO COMMERCIAL REIT, csfb maintain NEUTRAL with target price
$0.6($0.88)

ALLGREEN, csfb maintain NEUTRAL with target price $0.68($1.01)

CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target
price
$1.26($2.79)

CAPITALAND, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target price
$2.78($5.16)
CAPITALAND, ocbc resuming coverage with HOLD with target price $3.71

CAPITAMALL TRUST, csfb downgrade to NEUTRAL with target price
$2.58($3.50)

CHINA HONGXING, cimb upgrade to OUTPERFORM with target price $0.53

CHINA XLX, ms maintain EQUAL WEIGHT with target price $0.46

CITY DEV, csfb maintain UNDERPERFORM with target price $7.26($9.54)

COMFORT DELGRO, ml initial coverage BUY with target price $1.70

KEPPEL LAND, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target price
$2.48($5.04)

KS ENERGY, gs maintain NEUTRAL

MACQUARIE PRIME REIT, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target price
$0.76($1.31)

SMRT, ml initail coverage NEUTRAL with target price $2

SUNTEC REIT, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target price
$0.98($1.76)

WING TAI, csfb maintain UNDERPERFORM with target price $0.93($1.23)

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What’s ACTUALLY Happening in the Free Market

Posted on 30 September 2008 by Alex

What’s ACTUALLY Happening in the Free Market

Unfortunately, self-proclaimed free enterprisers - President George W. Bush is one among many - are either ignoring or are unable to accept the fact that some people must suffer as the purging process runs its course.

Often their vision is blurred by their quest for a tighter grip on the private sector. They call it “compassion,” but I call it “zeal for power.” Worse yet, they use other people’s money — namely, yours!

In its infinite wisdom and undying compassion for the public, our government does all it can to hamper the market’s cleansing tools — recessions and deflation.

Instead of one swift painful smack in the head by the invisible hand, their very visible hand “helps” to ensure the economy will grow much less efficiently AND remain much more vulnerable to future shocks to the system.

That’s not compassion…it’s nonsense!

Really, on a historical basis, many parts of the U.S. economy are in awfully good shape. We’re told to believe otherwise because doom and gloom dominates what the mainstream media consistently reports.

One of the biggest fear indicators they use: Employment numbers. After all, Americans don’t want to lose their jobs.

But look at the current employment situation on a historical basis: While U.S. job losses are on the upswing, they are fairly modest … and should be expected in a self-cleansing market.

Civilian Unemployment Rate Chart

As my chart shows, taking into account only the last 40 years, today’s unemployment rate sits relatively low compared to 1975, 1983, and 1993.

If we play our cards right we could see the current rise in unemployment top out around the same levels as it did roughly five years ago. That would be nothing to panic over.

We May Just Be the “Least Ugly” Right Now By Comparison

Let’s look at inflation — another economic boogeyman…

Current CPI in the U.S. sits just north of 5%. That’s easily less than the roughly 6% to 7% back in 1991. And in 1980, for example, inflation reached almost 15%.

Countries, particularly emerging markets, would kill to have inflation as LOW as 5%!

More to the point, Americans can afford necessary food items as easily as ever. Here’s a snippet from an article put together by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas last month:

Based on the average U.S. pay rate, it takes less than two hours of work to pay for 12 basic food items — tomatoes, eggs, sugar, bacon, milk, ground beef, oranges, coffee, lettuce, beans, bread, and onions.

That figure is nearly as low as it’s ever been.

Consumption may finally be taking a breather, as it should, but discretionary items like computers, DVD players, cell phones, digital cameras and color TVs have become far more affordable. And that even includes those families considered “poor.”

Moreover, despite my view that the U.S. government is dipping its hand way too deeply into the markets, making them increasingly less free, it’s all a relative game.

Many other countries around the world are either officially in, or about to slip into, recession.

And on a relative basis, because their governments are much more entrenched in the market than Uncle Sam is in ours, their ability to recover is hampered even more.

Why is this an important part of the dollar equation? Because it means that, despite all our warts, it’s quite possible the U.S. might still win the global economic beauty contest by getting judged the least ugly.

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What Could Have Been a $700 Billion Slap in the Face

Posted on 30 September 2008 by Alex

I’d be hard-pressed to say that a single American doesn’t yet know about Paulson’s proposed bailout of the financial system. It’s been dominating the airwaves lately and even the presidential debate devoted half of their time to the crisis at hand.

Despite the meandering dialogue of panels on CNBC and other business news sources, I want to be abundantly clear about one thing. This bailout constitutes the single greatest case of ignoring the free market in modern history.

As we went to press, it seems as if the bailout plan isn’t going to make it past Congress…but just the fact that they would propose it at all is a major affront to the free market system.

In fact, Henry Paulson repeated over and over again exactly how agitated, disgusted, annoyed, infuriated, angered, embarrassed, and irritated he felt about asking for this amount of money, or any money at all. Sounds sincere if you stop it right there.

But apparently those feelings weren’t enough to reinvigorate his free-market spirit, abolish potential bailout plans, do away with unnecessary regulation and let those who deserve to suffer, suffer.

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 29 September 2008 by Alex

 
As dramatic and potentially damaging the US financial problems are, it’s the impact on the US economy that remains the main game.

US economic growth isn’t as strong as previously estimated and is weakening. This week we will probably get the first 100,000 monthly job loss in the US since the 2001 recession, plus more news on weak house prices and more financial pain.

The $US700 bailout has been agreed on, subject to any last minute grandstanding.

Warren Buffett turned out to be a major positive last week when he swooped on Goldman Sachs and took a major equity stake. 

 

He also spoke to leading members of Congress to urge them to approve the bailout. 

But even he couldn’t stave off the depressing impact of a bank freeze on lending and a growing belief of a possibly terrible disaster if the $US700 billion bailout fails.But here are a couple of quotes from the new book on Warren Buffett called Snowball, by Alice Schroeder that show that as early as March of this year, when Bear Stearns was rescued by JPMorgan, with a $US29 billion loan from the Fed, he could see worse to come, especially for the US economy.

It’s of interest that while he could see through the mists of confusion at the time, many others in the US, from Government and regulator to participant and investor, couldn’t or wouldn’t.

What squares the circle is that last Friday, our time, JP Morgan rescued Washington Mutual, America’s largest Savings and Loan after a 10 day, $US16.7 billion run sank it.

The first is from the second except on the Financial Times website

“Seventeen years later, in the weeks after the US investment bank Bear Stearns had to be rescued, Buffett reflected on his own close encounter with a meltdown on Wall Street: “The speed with which fear can spread – nobody has to have an account at Bear Stearns, nobody has to lend them money. It’s a version of what I went through at Salomon, where you were just inches away all the time from, in effect, and an electronic run on the bank. Banks can’t stand runs.

“The Federal Reserve hasn’t bailed out investment banks before, and that was what I was sort of pleading back there in 1991 with Salomon. If Salomon went, who knows what kind of dominoes would set off. I don’t have good answers to what the Fed should do. Some parts of the market are pretty close to paralysed. They don’t want contagion to spread to what they would regard as otherwise sound institutions: if Bear fails and two minutes later, people worry that Lehman fails, and two minutes after that they worry that Merrill will fail, and it spreads from there.”

And this other quote from the book, taken from a review published in the Weekend edition of the FT: It’s Buffett speaking after the rescue of Bear Stearns:

“It could all end on a dime if they flooded the system with enough liquidity”, he tells Schroeder, “but there are consequences to doing that. If dramatic enough, the consequences would be the immediate expectation of huge inflation. A lot of things would happen that you might not like. The economy is definitely tanking. It’s not my game, but if I had to bet one way or another – everyone else says a recession will be short and shallow, but I would say long and deep.”

And that is what is gathering pace in the US right now: a “long and deep” recession; a forecast made six months ago!

The rescue bailout package is now being sliced and diced by politicians more interested on the part of the Republicans in avoiding blame for the disaster and rediscovering some ideological objection to government involvement in the economy; this from a bunch of gainsayers who have presided over the greatest debasement of the US dollar since the Bush tax cuts started in 2001-02. 

The US deficit has ballooned, and before the bailout, was heading past $US500 billion in the 2009 year.

The Democrats aren’t any better. They took time out this week to negotiate a massive spending bill with the same people now opposing the bailout.

That bill will fund the Pentagon and defence, allow oil drilling in US offshore waters in the Lower 48 states and will allocate tens of billions of dollars for pet spending projects for all members of the Congress, from the lower house and the Senate collectively.

 

It will keep the money going for the US Government over the next six months while the Administration changes, but it won’t do a thing to tackle the biggest and most immediate problem: the imploding US financial system.

After the financial system, it’s the economy that needs attention: very soon, as early as this Friday, the rising cost of the slump and the impact of the failing financial system, will be seen in a sharp rise in US unemployment last month.

Estimates from a Reuter’s survey suggest that the number of jobless could have risen 100,000 or more last month, which would take the losses so far to over 700,000 and accelerating.

Revisions to previous months could boost that figure. The unemployment rate is tipped to remain at 6.1%, but economists missed that sharp rise in July to that level, so it could very well happen again.

Friday saw a sharp cut in the annual rate of growth in the US economy in the second quarter.

The third estimate put the annual rate at 2.8%, down from the surprisingly high 3.3% in the second estimate, but still above the initial stab in the dark of 1.9%.

While better than the contraction in the last quarter of 2007 and the rise of 0.9% in the first quarter, the latest estimate was reduced for worrying reasons.

US Commerce Department estimates revealed the reasons for the downgrade were lower than expected consumer spending and US exports, both of which didn’t grow as much during the three months to June than previously estimated.

The figures show consumer spending rose, thanks to that huge tax rebate, by an annual 1.2% rate, down from the 1.7% growth rate estimated previously.

Exports jumped by a still strong 12.3% yearly rate in the quarter, lower than the second estimate of 13.2%, but up from the 5.1% rate in the first quarter.

Since the end of the quarter home sales and building have fallen (home building shrank by over 13% in the quarter, better than in the previous two quarters, but still a big negative), retail sales have turned down, industrial production and durable goods orders have fallen and business inventories have risen.

And the global economy has slowed noticeably, especially in Europe and Asia where US exports have been strong.

Finally here’s something for all investors to chew on.

Reuters now forecasts a very sharp fall in third quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, which is due to start in the next week or so.

“At this time, the estimated growth rate for the third quarter of 2008 stands at -1.7%. On April 1st, the estimated growth rate for the third quarter was 17.3%.

“The decline in the third quarter growth rate during the past week (to -1.7% from -0.3%) can be attributed in part to downward estimate revisions in the Energy and Financials sectors.

“The growth rate for the Energy sector dropped to 57% from 59% during the past week. Companies in the sector that recorded downward estimate revisions over this timeframe include Chevron, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil.

“The growth rate for the Financials sector dropped to -59% from -55% during the past week. Companies in the sector that recorded downward estimate revisions over this timeframe include American International Group (AIG), Merrill Lynch and XL Capital.

“Since the start of the quarter, most of the decrease in the third quarter growth rate (to -1.7% from 12.6%) can be attributed to downward estimate revisions in the Financials sector.

“At the industry level, the aggregated net income for companies in the Diversified Financials (-$3.8 billion), Investment Bank & Brokerage (-$7.3 billion) and Multi-line Insurance (-$4.7 billion) industries has decreased by $15.8 billion.”

Realism is spreading.

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 26 September 2008 by Alex

ALLGREEN PROPERTIES, uob maintain BUY with target price $1.56

AVI-TECH, ocbc initial coverage HOLD with target price $0.16

CHARTERED SEMICONDUCTOR, citi maintain SELL with target price
$0.46($0.7)

COSCO, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.89
COSCO, csfb maintain UNDERPEFORM with target price $1.20
COSCO, ml maintain NEUTRAL with target price $1.75

FIRST SHIP LEASE TRUST, uob maintain BUY with target price $1.80

OLAM, mac maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.90

RAFFLES EDUCATION, ml maintain BUY with target price $2

RICKMERS MARITIME, ocbc maintain BUY with target price $1.22

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES, db maintain BUY with target price $5.50

ST ENGINEERING, uob maintain HOLD with target price $2.83

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 26 September 2008 by Alex

CHINA FISHERY, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.90

MMP PRIME REIT, ubs upgrade to BUY with target price $0.95

MOBILE ONE, dbs upgrade to BUY with target price $2.20

SIA ENGINEERING, uob upgrade to BUY with target price $3

SINGTEL, csfb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $4($4.15)

SINO-ENVIRONMENT, ocbc maintain BUY with target price $1.68

STARHUB, dbs maintain FULLY VALUED with target price $2.50($2.60)

WILMAR, db initial coverage BUY with target price $4

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singapore stock market

Posted on 26 September 2008 by Alex

CHINA FISHERY, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.90
- Strong fundamentals. We believe that CFG¡¯s fundamentals remain
strong as
rising demand for fishery products coupled with limited supply of
CFG¡¯s key
catch species due to fishing quota systems should help to support fish
prices and ensure profitability. We do not expect fishmeal prices to
hit
previous lows of US$800/tonne despite softer soymeal prices as fishmeal
is
preferred to substitutes due to its higher protein content.
- Debt level remains manageable. Concerns regarding the company¡¯s debt
levels are overplayed as a chunk of the US$218m debt is in the form of
a
long-term bond, not due till 2013. We forecast a gearing of 0.8x with
comfortable interest coverage of 5.5x for FY08.
- Maintain FY08-10 EPS estimates. Our higher trawling ASP assumptions
are
offset by lower Chilean Jack Mackerel contribution forecasts,
conservative
fishmeal ASP assumptions from FY09 due to softer commodity prices, and
higher vessel operating cost expectations.
- Maintain Outperform and target price of S$2.90. Despite its strong
fundamentals, China Fishery trades at a historically low forward
valuation
of 4.3x, a steep discount to its peers, while prospective dividend
yield is
6.8%. Our target price remains S$2.90, still based on 14x CY09 P/E.
Maintain Outperform.

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Markets Weak/Australia Strong?

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

 

Markets in the US fell, Asia was lower, and Europe was weak as doubts continued over the US treasury’s $US700 billion bailout plan.

The Dow was down 161.52 points, or 1.47%, at 10,854.17. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was off 18.87 points, or 1.56%, at 1188.22 while Nasdaq was down 25.64 points, or 1.18%, at 2153.34.

Worries about the economy saw the US dollar rise again most currencies, especially the euro and the Aussie which traded around 83.10 US cents, down around a cent in a day.

Gold fell $US11 an ounce to around $US897; oil dropped more than $US2.50 to just over $US106.70 a barrel and copper lost 11 US cents to end at $US3.14 a pound in New York.

Our market was off more than 1%, according to the overnight futures market and the ASX/200 could start around 70 points down this morning.

In new York BHP Billion and Rio Tinto shares were weak as analysts saidf iron ore exporters would get smaller than expected price rises next year.

Rio’s American depositary receipts fell the most since at least 1990, losing 13% to $US289.14 and BHP’s ADRs slipped 5.2% to $US61.77.

General Electric was the biggest drag on the S&P 500, falling more than 4%, after Goldman Sachs cut the company’s profit outlook. GE’s fall also hit the Dow. GE had itself added to the uS anti-shorting list.

Downgrades also hurt Bank of America shares, off 2.5%, while energy company shares fell as the price of oil retreated.

More details were made public with US Congressional hearings starting overnight in Washington, but Wall Street didn’t like the debate and delays..

Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, President Bush and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke all urged Congress to swiftly approve the plan.

Chairman Bernanke warned that the US economy would contract if the plan was not adopted and adopted quickly.

But there are concerns the Democrats might try to ram through one off pork barrel deals or attempts to control banking salaries, while some Republicans have expressed doubts about the whole idea.

Comments from the head of the Senate banking Committee, Senator Dodd didn’t help sentiment.

He said this morning government economic rescue plan was “not acceptable” in its current state.

“A lot of reservations have been expressed this morning by Democrats and Republicans on this matter,” said Dodd, a Democrat, speaking after Paulson and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke testified in Congress.

“What they have sent to us this is not acceptable,” said Dodd. “This is not going to work.”

Wall Street tumbled more than 160 points after hearing that, going from being slightly up, to well down on the day.

European stock-index futures dropped with Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index futures off 1.9%

National indexes decreased in all 18 western European markets. London’s FTSE 100 lost 1.9%.

Asian markets ended the sharp two day rally on those doubts about the Paulson plan.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (excluding Japan) fell 1.9% with financial shares the big fallers.

Stocks fell around the region, except in South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. Markets in Japan are shut for a holiday.

China’s CSI 300 index dropped 3.8%. Hong Kong was off 3.9%.

The Australian share market lost 1.9%, ending the two-session rebound, as doubts grew about whether the $US700 billion ($A840 billion) US financial bailout package would work.

The ASX 200 index ended down 97 points, or 1.9% at 4923.5, after rising 4.5% on Monday.

Australian shares traded lower as regulators announced exemptions to the ban on short selling and detailed proposed legislation to better control it.

At the close the All Ordinaries was down 92.4 points, or 1.8%, to 4957.7.

BHP Billiton fell $1.80, or 4.5%, to $37.90, Rio Tinto dropped $2.76, or 2.5%, to $108.24 and Fortescue Metals shed 64 cents, or 9%, to $6.51.

Banking led the way down with the ANZ losing $1.11 to $18.04, the Commonwealth Bank 38 cents to $44.22, the National Australia Bank 44 cents to $23.86 and Westpac 20 cents to $24.50.

Retailers were mixed, with Harvey Norman adding one cent to $3.51, Woolworths dropping 52 cents to $27.01, Wesfarmers retreating 57 cents to $31.18 and David Jones falling one cent to $4.39 ahead of the release of its full year results later today.

Media was mixed, with Consolidated Media Holdings adding three cents to $2.75, Fairfax falling 13 cents to $2.85, News Corp shedding 71 cents to $15.78 and its non-voting shares losing 70 cents to $15.51.

Telecommunications provider SP Telemedia lost one cent to 14 cents after reporting a full year loss of $18.93 million following debt write-offs, and cut its earnings guidance for the new year. 

It’s part of the Washington Soul Patts group whose 61% owned subsidiary New Hope Corp losing six cents to $4.40 despite forecasting significant earnings growth this year and delivering a rise in annual profit to $90.68 million

Santos added 17 cents to $18.70; Woodside dropped a cent to $56.99 and Oil Search lost nine cents to $5.53.

The spot price of gold was higher was trading at $US891.30 an ounce by late yesterday, up $US20.15 on yesterday’s local close of $US871.15 an ounce.

Gold miners were stronger, with Newcrest adding $1.34 to $26.84, Lihir 12 cents to $2.77 and Newmont 16 cents to $5.15.

Telstra was the most traded stock on the market, with 42.05 million shares changing hands, collectively worth $172 million. Its shares rose 16 cents to $3.98.

 


And in a report issued this morning, the International Monetary Fund says Australia is well placed to withstand the credit crunch.

In particular, the report notes that IMF “Directors welcomed the support that prudent fiscal policy is providing for monetary policy.”

The IMF Executive Board considered that Australia’s banking system remains resilient, with stable profits, high capitalisation and few non-performing loans. 

This was evident in stress tests undertaken by the IMF and presented in their report, which showed that Australian banks are able to absorb ‘extreme’ shocks.

The IMF considers that the outlook for the economy is more uncertain than usual due to large countervailing forces impacting on the economy, with the commodity boom providing a substantial stimulus and the global downturn exerting a contractionary effect. 

IMF staff forecast that real GDP growth will moderate as required to bring underlying inflation back within the RBA’s target range.

On an annual basis the IMF consults with the Australian authorities, private sector economists and academia to provide an independent and comprehensive assessment of Australia’s economic performance. 

This forms part of its program of economic consultations with all IMF member countries.

 

 

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The China Factor and Commodities in 2008

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

The global economy is now slowing with several countries in Europe and Asia either in recession or at the brink of a contraction in output. But China, the world’s main driver of commodities consumption this decade, continues to grow, suggesting the severe declines witnessed for raw materials since July are way overdone.

Since hitting a peak on July 3, the benchmark Reuters/CRB Index has plunged 25%. All commodities representing this index have declined sharply, including crude oil (32%), gold (22%), copper (22%) and the grains (28%). The chart below, dating back to June, clearly shows an oversold condition based on the MACD that has progressively worsened over the last 60 days.

Crb

The “China Factor” applied to commodities demand remains one of the more formidable equations supporting raw materials. As commodities have crashed recently, the Chinese are once again hoarding industrial metals like copper, tin and steel scrap. This demand won’t disappear because of credit problems in the United States – not with USD inflation-adjusted interest rates in negative territory. The U.S. Fed Funds currently stand at 2% versus 5.6% inflation through July.

The Chinese have started to expand credit again after tightening the money-supply since 2006 in small increments. China can’t afford a recession; a major contraction in output would devastate the economy and result in tens of millions of people becoming unemployed. The People’s Bank of China also has the capacity to spend heavily to finance a continued expansion. 

As Eric put it in a recent blog post…

“If you think the Federal Reserve has muscle, think again. China is home to more than $1.7 trillion dollars in foreign-exchange reserves. They can literally bail-out the entire American banking system with one check! They’ll do everything they can to keep this expansion going strong.”

In short, commodities, which were heavily overbought heading into 2008, are now heavily oversold.

In Eric’s view, the U.S. government played a big role “talking down” commodities by attacking oil trading speculation. In an election year, it’s really no surprise the Feds are targeting oil prices. They wanted lower oil prices and they got it. But their talk won’t be able to hold down prices forever.

Yes, the global economy is slowing this fall. Europe is several months behind the United States in this credit squeeze and Japan is basically in recession again. But the emerging markets should get a dose of good news as oil and food prices have plunged by about 25% since July.

These countries, including China, will continue to expand even at the expense of weaker exports. China, India and many other emerging markets are piling billions into domestic infrastructure projects. Eric expects these and other domestic projects to keep those markets humming until the West can stabilize credit markets.

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

Business Times - 23 Sep 2008

SGX deters naked shorts with disclosure measures

Dealers laud move, saying it will provide more clarity to the investing
public

By LYNETTE KHOO

(SINGAPORE) To improve transparency and deter abusive naked
short-selling,
the Singapore Exchange (SGX) will start disclosing information on naked
shorts with immediate effect.

From today, SGX will publish the list of buying-in securities and the
volume of shares sought at 11am daily. The information will be
published on
SGXNET and on the SGX website.

SGX will publish the list of securities it bought-in, and the volume
and
dollar value, at 8.30am the following business day.

These measures are meant to ‘enhance existing transparency in the
market
and deter failed deliveries’, SGX said in a statement.

The Central Depository currently has a buying-in process that ensures
short
positions are covered by the end of the third trading day from the
short-sale date, at a price at least two bids higher than the last-
traded
price. Buying-in takes place from 11.30am every day.

SGX warned market participants against short-selling in the buying-in
market or simply put - cumulative short-selling that has the effect of
forcing down prices further before SGX buys-in.

‘Cumulative short-selling of individual share securities without the
discipline of borrowing to cover delivery obligations may threaten the
orderliness of our market, with implications for the integrity of the
clearing system,’ it said.

There will be a penalty of 5 per cent of the value of the failed trade
subject to a minimum of $1,000, on top of the current processing fee of
$30
per contract for buying-in.

From Sept 25, SGX will punish any failure to deliver shares in the
buying-in market with a $50,000 fine and/or disbarment from
participating
in the buying-in market.

SGX said it will review these measures after a month, and fees will be
reviewed from time to time.

The latest move by the exchange comes on the heels of short-selling
curbs
imposed by regulators in Taiwan, Australia, Ireland and Europe
following a
ban by the US Securities and Exchange Commission last week. Such bans
have
since drawn criticism that many hedge funds could be squeezed out of
business.

But a draconian curb on short-selling is unlikely, as SGX assured
yesterday
that trading of stocks has been orderly and settlement has been timely
despite current market turbulence and global financial uncertainty.

Dealers yesterday lauded the move by SGX, saying it will provide more
clarity to the investing public and deter abusive short-selling from
bringing down companies.

‘If you ask me ‘Should it have been earlier?’ my answer is definitely
yes,’
said DMG & Partners Securities senior dealing director Gabriel Yap.

‘The situation we have seen in the US in the past week shows very
clearly
that naked shorts with the intention of bringing down a company are a
very
serious thing. The least we can do is to publicise or have greater and
more
in-depth information pertaining to naked shorts.’

A dealer with a local brokerage said he believes the new measures are
aimed
at increasing market awareness, akin to those already in effect on the
Australian and Hong Kong stock exchanges.

The Australian Stock Exchange discloses both naked and covered
short-selling positions, while the Hong Kong bourse collates data on
borrowed scrip and releases a summary report twice a day.

‘This will give investors some sense of direction on where the market
is
heading,’ the dealer said.

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The Smart Money Finds Gold

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

As smart money will sooner or later flight back into resources-related stocks, there are on the ASX many opportunities to take advantage of this expected flight-to-quality. Sino Gold Limited (ASX:SGX) is an Australian company involved in the exploration, development and production of gold exclusively in China. The company is primarily focused on the development of the Jinfeng Project.

As many other commodities-related stocks, SGX has suffered from the broad decline of the tangible assets those past two months. But it had also declined between March and May, while the equity markets were sharply rebounding. The fact is that Gold prices was effectively retracing from the peak posted above $1,000 an ounce. As a result, there is a strong positive correlation between gold prices and the SGX price development. The chart shows the SGX price action (black bars) and the Gold price action (red line).


Click to Enlarge

Many indicators argue for a strong rebound of the Bullion, in the current context of financial crisis and uncertain business climate. Actually Gold price has soared this week, it posted the biggest gain ever posted in one day on Wednesday, as the credit market turmoil convinces investors to pull their money out from equities and to put it back in safe-haven assets. What is safer than Gold?

An ounce is now trading around $850. It means that Gold has rebounded by 15% in 10 days after it posted a low at $740 on September 11. Regarding SGX, a few positive signals have been triggered and argue also for a further rebound. This may be good vehicle to take advantage of the Golden come-back.

The stock actually lost 66% of its value between the historical high posted in last March, at $8.81, and the recent low posted last week (at $2.95). The stock had been obviously oversold and a retracement has already started.

The MACD just triggered a bullish signal this week, as it crossed above its signal line. So did the Money Flow Index, which is an oscillator that accounts for volume action. It shows that smart money flies back into the stock. When price and volume both move on the upside, it’s a good sign that a bullish momentum is building up, and that a positive trend may be possible.

The stock closed at $4.40 this Friday. A significant retracement of the recent decline (between point A and B on the chart) has already driven above $4.3 (23.6% Fibonacci ratio) as the first objective. However a trend is likely developing: $5.2 then $5.9 would become the main immediate targets (38.2% and 50% retracement ratios).

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singapore stock market news

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

ASCOTT RESIDENCE, daiwa maintain BUY with target price $1.13

CAPITAMALL TRUST, dbs downgrade to HOLD with target price $2.85($2.96)
CAPITAMALL TRUST, uob maintain HOLD with target price $3.16

CITY SPRING, ocbc initial coverage HOLD with target price $0.8

COMFORTDELGRO, csfb maintain UNDERPERFORM with target price
$1.45($1.55)

FERROCHINA, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $2.44

KS ENERGY, gs maintain NEUTRAL

MACQUARIE INTERNATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUND by jpm

NOBLE GROUP, ocbc maintain BUY with target price $2.53($2.99)

NOL, gs maintain SELL with target price $1.95

NOVO GROUP, uob initial coverage BUY with target price $0.23

SIA, cl maintain BUY with target price $16.7

SPH, csfb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $4.88($5.11)

SYNEAR, jpm maintain UNDERWEIGHT with target price $0.25

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singapore investors

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

Turmoil in the markets is a great time to invest or trade in one of the largest trading markets in the world.

That’s commodities, like gold, silver, oil, gas, coffee, sugar, wheat, soy beans, cotton, corn, cocoa, cattle and even orange juice.

All day every day; all over the world, commodities are being traded; going up and down based on supply and demand, offering tremendous opportunities to profit on both upward and downward movements.

Commodities are a classic counter-cycle investment to shares. Consider balancing your share investments through trading and investing in commodity warrants.

Increases in commodities tend to drive up inflation. This has become very evident over the past three years with sky-high fuel and food costs crippling the average family or man-on-the-street. At the same time these inflationary pressures tend to drive share markets down. We have seen massive corrections in the Russian, Indian, Chinese, US and Australian markets over the past year. Global instability and natural disasters also tend to drive share markets down whilst driving commodities up. Understanding and investing in commodities can help you to have a diversified investment portfolio.

But isn’t commodity trading only for experts?

No. You do need to have good advice and learn about the key factors. But these are markets in pure items – not items that have the complexities of management, production, factories, balance sheets, loads of debt etc. And global commodities markets are large enough to prevent small groups or fund managers dictating price movement.

Commodities are traded on the global stage and their price transparency is broadcast through radio, TV and media 24/7. Click here to learn more.

How can I make money if the price of a commodity only moves 2 or 3%?

That’s where leverage comes in. By using commodity warrants you can achieve 10, 20 even 50 times leverage on your money meaning that relatively small movements of 2- 3% can equal significant gains. Often in a matter of days! Click here to learn more.

But can it go the wrong way?

Absolutely. You should only trade with what you can afford to lose. And your initial outlay is all you can possibly lose with our warrants because your exposure is always limited to that outlay.

Commodity warrants are unlike CFDs or Futures contracts which can have unlimited downside.

Whilst warrants offer significant leverage, there is no gearing which means no debt associated with your investment and therefore no margin calls. You have limited downside with virtually unlimited upside potential. Click here to learn more.

So how much can I make?

Your upside is virtually unlimited. CWA warrants have achieved results of up to 700% in less than six months!

Our average warrant term is around 80 days; and in the 3 years since inception more than 65% of all CWA warrants have achieved a positive return during the life of the warrant. Of these the average maximum return has been more than 32%; achieved in an average of just over 14 days.

Remember your downside is always limited to your initial outlay. And if a market does turn against you can sell your warrant at any time further limiting your downside. Click here to learn more.

So how can you help me?

The team at Commodity Warrants Australia has years of experience. We offer warrants on 18 global commodity and stock index markets and we review each of these markets every day. We tap into the key indicators: has frost destroyed the orange juice market in Florida; has one of key holders in gold started to sell; how will a change in exchange rates likely impact prices?

Everyday we issue general advice on these markets by way of a House View Summary. We put in hours of work everyday and tie it to years of experience to rate bullish and bearish factors on each market from a fundamental and a technical perspective. Click here to learn more.

How much do I need to start?

It costs nothing to open an account and start learning about the markets. You can even ghost trade if you want and see how it works. If you don’t like it – we understand. If you do think it’s for you then you can start trading from as little as $2000-5000, depending upon the commodities you wish to trade. Click here to learn more.

How much time do I need to spend?

That’s completely up to you. We provide you with a lot of information that you can choose to study, or alternatively your dedicated broker is always available on the phone to help guide you through and provide general advice. Many of our clients trade very effectively using just 2-5 hours a week of their time. Click here to learn more.

Why buy a warrant; why not just buy the commodity?

Good question. Our warrants allow you leverage of typically 10-20:1, even up to 50:1. And they are extremely flexible. You can buy a commodity “each way”, or to go up or down. You can vary your strike or trigger price and vary your warrant term.

Of course buying a commodity outright is possible but you only get 1:1 leverage. Gold at $800 to $830 means $30 on $800 invested. A gold warrant with leverage of 10, 20 or even 50 times means significantly greater upside potential.

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Short Selling Banned

Posted on 22 September 2008 by Alex

So, what does the banning of short-selling mean to the market?

It’s a good question. In our view, short-selling is no more to “blame” for markets falling than long buying is to blame for markets rising. In other words, it does have an impact on the downside but only as far as it adds to the number of sellers. It is not the sole reason for a share price falling.

We keep hearing commentators and analysts tell us that the likes of ABC Learning and Babcock & Brown are fundamentally strong companies. We are told that they hold great assets and that the market is failing to recognize it.

a couple of months ago that it was a misleading argument. Sure, these companies may have good assets, but that is only one side of the balance sheet. Don’t forget about the debt on the other side. If we only concerned ourselves with the assets then share prices would never go down.

Cause and Effect
It is easy to confuse cause and effect. Short sellers aren’t the cause of a share price falling. The cause is due to something that the company has or hasn’t done. The effect of the company doing (or not doing something) leads to investors selling those shares. In some cases this will involve investors short selling.

In reality, the ban on short-selling is likely to have almost zero impact. There may be short term price action to the upside as those who currently have short positions buy back the stock to close out. Secondly, those investors that use short selling to hedge a long position may choose to close out their long positions, which could put pressure to the downside.

But for those professional investors wanting to trade ’short’ they need look no further than the Options market. Options traders will be able to implement reasonably simple strategies that will give them almost exactly the same exposure as if they had used the share market to short sell.

In financial terms they call it a “synthetic short.” By simply buying an ‘at the money’ Put Option and writing an ‘at the money’ Call Option the trader can replicate a short trade. It is not exactly the same, but if an investor really wants to short particular stocks it is an easy way to do it.

The bigger question is what will happen to the markets next. We all have an interest in share prices rising, but are we really interested market manipulation?

ASIC and the ASX have rules against investors falsely manipulating the market. Yet its actions to restrict short-selling are doing exactly this in the short term. The banking stocks again look likely to be the main beneficiaries of this policy when they eventually start trading this morning.

What Happens When the Party is Over
The party on the stock market will doubtless continue today after Friday’s celebrations. But as is usually the case with a big party, there are plenty of hangovers.

Governments and regulators have thrown everything at the markets over the past week to try and ‘fix’ things. It may work. But if it doesn’t they haven’t left themselves with many other options.

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Secret Weapon #1: VIX Gives Me the Upper Hand

Posted on 21 September 2008 by Alex

So as traders all around the globe watch their bottom lines bottom out and their hedge funds blow-up, I’m flat-out loving this market.

Why? I have a secret weapon that lets me profit when markets are sinking, while my stock trading buddies can barely stay afloat with their stocks.

What’s that secret weapon? The Japanese yen. You see, when volatility increases in the markets and stock traders lose their shirts, their loss is my gain. The Japanese yen experiences an uptrend when almost every other asset class (even commodities) is headed downhill.

At times like these, I can pair the yen with almost any currency in the foreign-exchange market and I’ll win. I know the yen thrives off of volatility, so one of my buddies’ strongest tools works even better for me during bear markets.

Stock traders all over the country look to the VIX (Volatility Index) to gauge when the stock market may bottom. They wait until the VIX rises to an extreme level and then they go in and buy. However, I watch the VIX heading higher and I know it’s giving my yen trades another boost.

Then when the VIX appears to peak, and these stock traders are just beginning to make some headway in their trades; all I have to do is reverse my yen trade and I’m still making a killing the whole time. If they only knew it was so easy…

Take a look at the VIX in the chart below, and the Japanese yen price right above it. When the VIX hits extreme levels (above 30 but especially around 35 or higher), the yen starts to peak. At that time, I just reverse my trade and start shorting the yen.

The VIX and the Yen…Traveling Buddies!

$VIX Chart

As a currency trader, you can buy or short the yen based on what you see using the VIX, their so-called “stock tool.” If you’re a stock trader and you understand the VIX, then you also understand the yen whether you know it or not.

As you can see above, the yen’s run may be almost over because the VIX is showing an extreme reading (i.e. it’s soaring higher). So it may be time to reverse your Japanese yen trades.

Secret Weapon #2: Collect Daily “Dividends” from the Currency Market

But there’s one secret that would REALLY push my stock buddies over the edge if they knew about it. It’s one I use in “up” markets, when stocks are also doing well

Most traders know the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere for a number of years. However, once you take into account these companies’ dividends, then you could have an overall gain even while stocks stay flat.
However, these stocks only pay out dividends on a quarterly basis, while currencies pay out interest on a daily basis. Yes, you read that right…

It’s like getting a dividend daily.

So I have 365 opportunities a year to profit, while my stock buddies get four. If they only knew…

Secret Weapon #3: No Commissions, So There’s Less Fees in Currencies

The third advantage I have over stock traders is my stock buddies have to pay a spread AND a commission for each stock trade, while I ONLY have to pay the spread.

And I pay a smaller spread than they do because I control more currency with less money down and because the currency market has more volume which leads to tighter spreads.

So while my stock buddies are trading in this bear market, losing money on their positions AND paying commissions along the way, I’m earning profits now and paying less in fees.

Let’s say my stock trading buddies and I place the same number of trades each year. My stock buddies pay a measly US$7 per trade (even though many firms charge more). If we both made only 10 trades each month, we’d both have 120 trades over the course of a year.

Now remember that stock traders are charged twice on each trade (when they buy and when they sell). So over the course of the year, my buddies must pay 240 different commissions, costing US$7 each. That’s US$1,680 in commissions. That doesn’t even count how much they also pay in spreads.

What do I pay in commissions for completing those same 120 trades? Nothing! I only pay my much smaller spread all year long.

My stock buddies have to earn that much more in profits before they even break even. So obviously, the deck is stacked in my favor. If they only knew…

You now know my three secret weapons that give me an edge in the currency markets.

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