Tag Archive | "platinum prices"

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Platinum prices

Posted on 15 January 2010 by Alex

Platinum has the makings of being the commodity story of 2010. Right now, the stars are aligned for this super rare metal, and this year I expect it will even outperform gold and silver.

Over the last three months Platinum prices have already risen 15.8%. And that’s set to continue.

So why are investors worldwide getting so excited about platinum? Let me tell you.

First of all, the supply of platinum is really tight.

When the world asks for more of the stuff, the industry is stuck in first gear and just can’t increase the supply. For instance, it’s taken the industry thirty years to just double production.

This is partly because it’s so rare. For every trillion particles in the earth’s crust, just three parts of them are platinum. Last year the entire industry managed to squeeze out just six million ounces, which would fit in a box measuring two metres on each side!

Second, demand is rising fast.

The four main groups of users take everything the industry can provide already. With demand rising, a global platinum deficit is on the way.

Autocatalyst manufacturers are the most notorious users of platinum, but last year they used just over a quarter of the supply. Between them and other industrial users, such as computer hard disk manufacturers, they bought about half of global platinum supply last year.

If the global economy continues to recover, these two groups will need more platinum.

Funnily enough, the biggest users of platinum were jewellery manufacturers. They took up 42% of supply last year.

They mopped up what other industries didn’t need that year.

And now the world has got an increasing taste for platinum jewellery. The Chinese platinum market is in its early days but is taking off fast. This has the scope to be a huge destination for the world’s platinum.

But the most exciting source of platinum demand by a mile is the new kid on the block - the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Between 2006 and 2009 they have gone from zero, to ten per cent of the market. They buy the metal and hold it on behalf of investors. The Investors can then buy a portion of the platinum, like they were buying a share in a company. It’s an easy way to invest directly in the metal.

For example, Gold ETFs do this and have been a massive winner. The one on the New York Stock Exchange has now got the sixth largest gold holdings in the world.

And platinum ETFs are also growing rapidly. A new platinum ETF (ETFS Physical Platinum shares) listed on the New York Stock Exchange earlier this month.

Investors buy in for one reason - they expect future price rises. This new ETF has been given a whopping seven percent allocation of the world’s platinum supply.

This is game-changing news for two reasons.

Firstly there isn’t a spare seven percent to go around. It’s just not there.

Secondly the ETF puts a massive investor base in front of the platinum market which is basically miniscule. It’s just a tenth of the size of the gold market which in the big picture is also tiny.

So ETFs will mop up at least 17% of the market this year. If the new ETF is a success, it will grow and others may follow its footsteps.

Make no mistake; demand for platinum is on the rise.

So we have the makings of a perfect storm:

  • Super-tight supply.
  • Rising demand from multiple users.

This is exactly what I’m always searching and hoping to uncover for Diggers and Drillers readers: A commodity right in the centre of a perfect storm.

In mid-December, platinum was ticking all the boxes and then some. So, I tipped a stock that was well placed to reap the benefits. Already, Diggers & Drillers readers that acted on the tip are already enjoying fifty percent gains on their investment within a month.

From where I’m sitting, platinum looks like it is going to have a great ride well beyond the end of this year as well. Even before the new ETF burst onto the scene, there was already a forecast platinum shortage for the next few years. The ETF will only multiply this shortage.

And where there’s a shortage there’s a price rise.

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Xstrata launches $11bn bid for Lonmin

Posted on 07 August 2008 by Alex

ACQUISITIVE miner Xstrata unveiled a $US10 billion ($11 billion) takeover bid for the world’s third-biggest platinum producer Lonmin, aiming to diversify its business from industrial metals such as copper.

South Africa-focused Lonmin swiftly rejected the bid yesterday as its shares soared 51 per cent to a high of £35 ($75), slightly over Xstrata’s planned offer of £33 a share, implying investors see scope for a sweetened bid.

Lonmin shares, which had shed 36 per cent since May 19, closed up 47.7 per cent at 34.26 pounds.

Anglo-Swiss Xstrata’s swoop is part of a wave of consolidation in the metals sector amid booming demand from China that has sent prices soaring over the past few years.

Five months ago, Xstrata escaped being bought when a takeover attempt by Brazil’s Vale failed.

Xstrata bought an 8 per cent stake from several major shareholders after the close on Tuesday and purchased more shares yesterday, bringing its stake to 10.7 per cent.

Lonmin rejected the bid as undervaluing the firm. “This is an opportunistic and entirely unwelcome attempt to acquire Lonmin at a price which undervalues its unique assets,” the company said.

BlackRock fund manager Graham Birch, a major Lonmin shareholder, said: “It’s a bit opportunistic because all the mining shares have been so battered in the last six weeks or so.”

“Obviously Xstrata has taken advantage of market weakness. Mining shares have got so ridiculously cheap. I suppose it’s not impossible there will be bids for others.”

Xstrata would fund the bulk of its $US10 billion offer through bank debt and chief executive Mick Davis said he expected little problem in sealing the financing considering the number of messages from bankers he had received yesterday  morning.

Sector shares

Xstrata’s move spurred gains in other mining shares as investors bet that other companies would take advantage of more reasonable valuations after mining shares lost around a third over the past three months on worries about a global slowdown.

The UK mining index gained 3.3 per cent and Anglo American, around which takeover speculation has swirled, added 3.2 per cent.

Shares gained 2.4 per cent in sector number one BHP Billiton in the midst of a $US150 billion takeover bid for number two Rio Tinto, which rose 2.4 per cent.

Platinum prices also got a boost from Xstrata’s move, jumping more than 3 per cent, since it showed confidence in the metal’s future, traders said. Over the past few months platinum prices had fallen by a third from a record $US2290 in March.

Xstrata said it had the expertise to turn around the South African mines owned by Lonmin, which has repeatedly cut its production targets due to operational problems, smelter difficulties and power shortages.

Lonmin cut its 2008 sales target for the third time yesterday , slicing off another 6.5 per cent when it released quarterly output data.

Analysts largely supported the bid since Xstrata has a track record of improving performance of companies it has bought, such as Canada’s Falconbridge and Australia’s MIM.

“We find it difficult to see any other bidders coming out of the woodwork for Lonmin, so unless shareholders reject the deal, we believe it is likely to go ahead,” said Investec analyst Rebecca O’Dwyer.

She said the bid was at a price earnings ratio of 14, below Lonmin’s average multiple of 17 over the year to June before the latest slide in mining shares.

Xstrata’s most important commodities are copper, coal and nickel, but the firm entered platinum last year with a $US1 billion purchase of South Africa’s Eland Platinum.

Xstrata has grown from a small Swiss producer of steel alloys in the late 1990s to the fifth-biggest mining group by market value through a string of acquisitions.

Lonmin has been turning robust profits, posting a 63 per cent jump in first-half profit in May on strong platinum prices.

Xstrata also posted a 2 per cent rise in first-half attributable net profit of $US2.83 billion, higher than an average forecast of analysts polled by the firm of $US2.65 billion.

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