NEW YORK - Wall Street shares vaulted higher, with investors optimistic that the US congress was on the verge of a deal on a massive rescue plan for the financial sector.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 196.89 points, or 1.82 per cent, to 11,022.06.
The Nasdaq composite added 30.89 points, or 1.43 per cent, to 2,186.57, and the Standard & Poor’s broad-market index increased 23.31 points, or 1.97 per cent, to 1,209.18.

LONDON - The London FTSE index rose 101.4 points, or 1.99 per cent, to close at 5,197.02 points.

FRANKFURT - The DAX added 120.16 points, or 1.99 per cent, to close at 6,173.03 points.

PARIS - The CAC 40 gained 112.27 points, or 2.73 per cent, to 4,226.81 points.

TOKYO - The Nikkei lost 108.5 points, or 0.9 per cent, to close at 12,006.53 points.

HONG KONG - The benchmark Hang Seng Index closed down 27.56 points, or 0.15 per cent, at 18,934.43.

WELLINGTON - The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed down 21.964 points, or 0.67 per cent, at 3237.715 points.

SYDNEY - The Australian stock market is expected to open stronger today after US political leaders struck an agreement in principle on a $US700 billion plan to revive the crippled financial system.
It is hoped both houses of US congress will vote on the plan within days.
Wall street and European markets have reacted positively to the news, with major indices recording gains of around two per cent.
At 0735 AEST, the Sydney Futures Exchange’s December Share Price Index contract was up 63 points at 5,057.
In news today, Greater Bendigo Gold Mines holds a general meeting.
Heritage Gold NZ, a company listed in both Australia and New Zealand, holds its annual general meeting in Auckland.
The Emissions Measurement and Information Systems conference continues in Sydney.
Yesterday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 closed down 54.5 points, or 1.09 per cent, at 4927.4, while the broader All Ordinaries lost 47.4 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 4960.8.

NYMEX
Crude oil rebounded on hopes that the $US700 billion bank bailout plan would stabilise the teetering US economy and boost domestic energy demand.
New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, rose $US2.29 to settle at $US108.02 a barrel.
In London, November Brent crude rose $US2.15 to settle at $US104.60 a barrel.

COMEX
Gold prices fell as an agreement in principle on a US government financial rescue package prompted investors to sell safe-haven assets in favour of stocks.
Gold for December delivery fell $US13 to settle at $US882 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling as low as $US868.80.
Other metals traded mixed. December silver fell 16.5 US cents to settle at $US13.275 an ounce, while December copper rose 2.8 US cents to settle at $US3.1345 a pound.

Very quietly compared to all the noise about the big bailout proposal from the US Government and the other move for the Fed to offer a lifeline to struggling mutual cash management funds, new steps to relieve distressed commodities markets were launched Friday by US regulators after Lehman and AIG woes triggered a wave of selling and emergency actions by exchanges earlier in the week.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main regulator of US commodity markets, said it was ”prepared to provide temporary and conditioned hedge exemption relief for firms taking on swap positions from distressed companies”.

The move would allow Wall Street’s investment banks and trading companies to take over some large commodities’ positions held by Lehman Brothers and AIG, known as swaps, without surpassing limits set by the regulator and the exchanges on speculative limits.

”This will allow for continued risk management and orderly functioning of the markets,” the CFTC said in the statement.

That means in particular the huge oil market will be stable.

AIG acts as a counterparty to a substantial portion of the $US30 billion invested in the DJ-AIG commodity index, the second most popular benchmark in the asset class. Lehman Brothers was also a significant player in commodities markets.

The CFTC added that it was coordinating with commodity futures exchanges to facilitate rare block trading, which allow the transfer of large positions. That would allow the people liquidating Lehman and winding up AIG’s speculative positions to handle large groups of deals with the same counterparties.

“CFTC staff is engaged in heightened monitoring and surveillance of financial company single-stock futures traded on futures exchanges – in coordination with the SEC’s emergency action on short selling and in our collective effort to prevent manipulation of financial stocks,” the Commission said.

That will be significant as already there are traders developing ways of circumventing the ban on short selling: one is sell the S&P500, then hedge the stocks you don’t want; in effect you short sell the stocks remaining in the position unheeded.

The move links to the one on Friday where cash funds were guaranteed. Many mutual funds have commodity based offerings and investors use the associated money market fund when moving their money from fund to fund..

The US Treasury on Friday rushed to the aid of ailing money market funds, saying it would guarantee the holdings of funds as it attempted to prevent the spillover of the financial crisis to the $US3.4 trillion business.

In establishing the temporary guarantee program for the US money market mutual fund industry, the Treasury tapped the Exchange Stabilisation Fund, which was established by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 in response to the Great Depression. The support will be done via the Fed.

The move to shore up the fund is designed to allow the Treasury to insure the holdings of any publicly offered eligible money market mutual fund – both retail and institutional – that pays a fee to participate in the program.

It came after the Reserve Fund was forced to reveal it was ‘breaking the buck’ in paying investors 97c in the dollar and not the usual $1 in redemptions after being exposed to $800 million worth of Lehman Brothers debt that is facing big losses.

Crude oil rose Friday in New York, capping the biggest three-day rally in almost a decade, on speculation government measures to resolve the bank crisis will spur the economy and bolster petroleum demand.

That’s the theory, the reality is that there will be no impact on the US economy and oil prices will start sliding very quickly.

Oil rose 6.8% on Friday as output disruptions from hurricanes in the US and attacks in Nigeria’s main oil producing region continued to have as much impact on price and sentiment as what was happening in the sharemarkets and credit system.

October crude futures jumped $US6.67 to settle at $US104.55 a barrel in New York after rising 7.4% to touch a day’s high of $US105.25 a barrel.

Oil prices rose 15% last week, the biggest three-day rally since December 1998 as shorts scrambled to cover short positions.

That lifted the week’s performance to a 3.3% gain, the first weekly rise since mid August. It’s still down 29% from the high of $US147.27 reached on July 11.

The October contract expires tonight, our time, so when the Fed and the US Government moved on the mega bailout, traders decided to cover their positions.

Inventory positions in the US in the wake of twin Hurricanes Gustav and Ike will be key figures for the market this week.

Energy companies have resumed about 12% of oil production and a quarter of natural-gas output in the Gulf of Mexico after shutting almost all of it before the hurricanes.

The Gulf accounts for about 26% of American oil output and around 14% of gas production.

In Nigeria, Shell warned that the recent escalation in militant attacks would hurt earnings. The country has lost about 280,000 barrels a day from the violence on top of production already shut-in, according to government officials.

November Brent crude rose $US4.42, or 4.6%, to $US99.61 a barrel in London.

Gold futures dropped sharply on Friday to end a very volatile week.

But it still had its biggest weekly gain in almost nine years on the turmoil in the financial markets.

Comex December gold futures fell $US32.30, or 3.6%, to $US864.70 an ounce in New York, but the metal jumped 13% over the week, up $US100.20, the best since October 1999.

Comex December silver futures dropped 22.5 USc, or 1.8%, to $US12.475 an ounce on Friday. That left it up 16%, the best since early 1987.

Gold is now up 3.2% so far this year, while silver has dropped 16%.

Comex Gold for immediate delivery rose $US18.26, or 2.2%, to $US869.23 on Friday.

Comex December copper futures rose 11.05 USc, or 3.6%, to $US3.1765 a pound in New York. But that still left the metal down half a per cent over the week.

On the London Metal Exchange, three month copper rose $US311, or 4.6%, to $US7,060 a tonne, or $US3.20 a pound. The price is up 5.8% this year.

Nickel however had its biggest weekly drop in almost four years as stocks of the metal rose to a nine-year high, signalling weak demand from consumers, led by stainless steel producers.

London Metals Exchange stock rose 0.9% to 52,326 tonnes, the highest since July 1999.

That was after a 0.6% dip in second quarter stainless steel output this year, compared to the same quarter of 2007.

Three month nickel ended at $US16, 843 a tonne. The fall was more than 12% for the week, the biggest since October 2004.

The International Nickel Study Group said the world’s nickel surplus rose for a third month in July as consumption of the metal dropped to a nine month low.

The INSG said nickel production of the metal exceeded demand by 9,900 tonnes tons in July, compared with a surplus of 7,700 tonnes in June.

Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL) is a gold mining, development and exploration company, focused on the Lihir gold mine and processing facilities located in Papua New Guinea.

Yesterday we saw that Sino Gold Mining (ASX:SGX) was likely to take advantage of the strong Gold price rebound. Today we have a look at a similar stock, also strongly correlated with Bullion prices. The analysis is therefore almost the same as the 2 stocks (SGX and LGL) have the same price action.

Click to Enlarge

Two charts illustrate this: the first one is the LGL price development in parallel with gold prices (Gold in red line), while the second one is the LGL/SGX comparison (SGX in blue line). There again the positive correlation of LGL with both Gold and SGX is flagrant.

Click to Enlarge

As indicated yesterday, many indicators argue for a strong rebound of the Bullion, in the current context of financial crisis and uncertain business climate. Gold price soared yesterday, the biggest gain ever posted in one day, as the credit market turmoil convinces investors to pull their money out from equities and to put it back in safe-haven assets. Yesterday SGX jumped by 22.54% and LGL bounced 15.89%.

As same causes create same consequences, a further momentum is expected for LGL.

Several signals argue also for a positive development.

The stock actually lost 61% of its value between the historical high posted in last March, at $4.39 (well the real historical high had been posted in October 2007 at $4.45), and the recent low posted last week (at $1.6950). The stock has been obviously oversold and, as it has already bounced back impressively, a large retracement is more than likely.

The MACD just triggered a bullish signal yesterday, as it crossed above its signal line. So did the Relative Strength Index, which has quit the oversold area and has been soaring for a week now. The On Balance volume indicator (OBV) provides a running total of volume and shows whether this volume is flowing in or out of a given stock. Here the OBV has also clearly bottomed and has turned upward: money is flowing back into the stock. Once again, if both price and volume move on the upside, it’s a good sign that a bullish momentum is building up, and that a positive trend may be possible.

A significant retracement of the recent decline is likely. Yesterday the price closed at $2.48, well above the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio. The next objectives are therefore $2.7 then $3.1 (the 38.2% and 50% retracement ratios).

The slump in global commodity prices, led by oil and gold, is looking ominous for producers, and great for consumers and economies like China, India and the US and Europe. But the reasons for the fall are sending a different message; one that you might not want to hear: the rest of this year and much of 2009 is going to be miserable, more miserable than we have so far seen in 2008. Oil prices eased further overnight after initially rising on the fighting in Georgia: prices fell under $US114 a barrel before closing at $US113.01 in New York.  Gold fell more than $US33 an ounce in overnight trading, and then fell a further $US4 an ounce in early Asian trading yesterday to trade around $US828 an ounce, the lowest level since late December, 2007. It then rose a touch, then fell sharply by almost $US16 an ounce to trade around $US813 an ounce. Gold actually hit an intra day low in Asia yesterday around $US802 an ounce.It then recovered and traded around $US822 this morning. Oil is now down more than $US33 a barrel form its peak a month ago of over $US147 a barrel, a fall of more than 22%. Prices have fallen more than $US6 a barrel from before the Georgia fighting started last Thursday. But gold prices have plunged by more than $US50 an ounce since the fighting started last week and that is as good an indicator (along with oil) on the enormous switch in sentiment in global commodity markets. The Australian dollar fell, rose and then fell well under 88 US cents in Asian trading yesterday, while the US currency jumped under $US1.49 to the euro to maintain its rapid appreciation. The Australian dollar was actually closing on 87 US cents late yesterday as oil and gold prices continued to weaken.It was at 87.60 US cents this morning. A month to six weeks ago fighting in such a sensitive area, plus the bombing of a major oil pipeline, like the one in Turkey at the weekend, would have seen a surge in oil prices, while gold would have chased itself higher as nervous bears sought their usual haven of value or protection in volatile times. Now the normally nervous nellies in the markets don’t seem to care. Investors no longer see commodities, especially gold and oil, as havens or plays to make money.It is an astounding change in sentiment. The surge in the US dollar has become too powerful as momentum from big investors searches for new havens of safety. And they have found it in the US which they figure won’t lose as much as leaving money invested in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, or in commodities. Markets like commodities would have reacted negatively to news of war in the Caucasus, which is an important oil-exporting region.

The fact that oil and gold prices keep falling strongly suggests that investors/traders now strong believe the world economy is in bad shape. That is bad for oil prices, gold and other actively traded commodities.

If you believe that speculators were responsible for some of the strong surge in commodity prices, then you have to blame them for some of the rapid retreat in commodities in the past month.

When we look back at this time we will see that the first 11 days or so of July were the peak of the current commodity price surge.

But while there’s good news in lower commodity prices, the fact that markets now reckon 2009 is going to be worse than this year isn’t good news.

There are some important statistics due out in Europe (eurozone growth for the June quarter) and the US (retail sales and industrial production) which could confirm the downturn in both giant economies, or at best, sluggish growth.

And what are big investors doing? Selling commodities (open interest positions, which are contracts not closed out or delivered on any given day) are falling, indicating that the investors who plunged into commodities, are retreating.

And they are buying US shares.

But for Australia there’s goodish news from China, with consumer price inflation down and signs the economy is not tanking in an inflationary spiral (See accompanying story).

This slump in oil and other commodity prices is sending a message that global economy will worsen, not improve: a message that the Reserve Bank has been very alert to.

It’s why the bank has been pushing a message of an incipient easing in monetary policy with a rate cut next month.

The Bank is angling to make a pre-emptive cut in rates (just as it launched pre-emptive rate rises, starting a year ago to tackle inflation) to allow the economy room to adjust to any further downturn in the global economy.

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has made it clear on a couple of occasions that the bank moved early to act against inflation, not wait until inflation appeared, then act.

It’s why its reading of the global economy, and the rapid slump in domestic activity, has seen it push domestic economic growth to equality with inflation in its short to medium term policy objectives.

And that’s why the National Australia Bank yesterday warned that the RBA had to avoid engineering too hard a landing for the economy.