Tag Archive | "Fannie And Freddie"

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US government buys two mortgage giants

Posted on 08 September 2008 by Alex

  • Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee nearly half of the US mortgage market
  • Background: See how Fannie and Freddie affect the economy
  • Reaction: Mortgage giant bail-out unprecedented
  • THE US government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yesterday, placing them in a “conservatorship” to help avert a financial system meltdown from the housing crisis.

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the US regulator was seizing control of the government-chartered, shareholder-owned firms underpinning trillions of dollars of home loans.

    The move constitutes a massive government intervention in the financial system in an effort to contain the damage from the worst housing slump in decades, which has rippled through the banking system and led to multibillion-dollar losses for Fannie and Freddie.

    The plan “is the best means of protecting our markets and the taxpayers from the systemic risk posed by the current financial condition” of the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, Mr Paulson said.

    “Because the GSEs are in conservatorship, they will no longer be managed with a strategy to maximise common shareholder returns, a strategy which historically encouraged risk-taking,” he said.

    New chief executives have been installed as part of the action Mr Paulson said was needed in view of  “the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the GSE structure”.

    Departing CEOs Dan Mudd of Fannie Mae and Dick Syron of Freddie Mac “have agreed to stay on for a period to help with the transition”, Mr Paulson said.

    Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, part of frantic several days of talks to come up with the rescue plan, lauded the effort.

    “These necessary steps will help to strengthen the US housing market and promote stability in our financial markets,” Mr Bernanke said.

    Tne key element in the plan enables the Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency to purchase a new class of preferred stock in the firms that  “will ensure that each company maintains a positive net worth”, Mr Paulson said.

    The Treasury will initially purchase $US1 billion ($1.23 billion) in shares in each of the firms, but will have the authority to boost that total to $US100 billion  in each.

    This will mean cash will be injected as needed, an action “more efficient than a one-time equity injection, because it will be used only as needed and on terms that Treasury has set”.

    The new plan does not eliminate the existing common and preferred shares but means they would absorb any losses ahead of the government, Mr Paulson said.

    “With this agreement, Treasury receives senior preferred equity shares and warrants that protect taxpayers,” the treasury chief said.

    “Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, common and preferred shareholders bear losses ahead of the new government senior preferred shares.”

    Another step — authorised by emergency legislation passed by Congress in July — opens up a new, unspecified, treasury line of credit to the two firms through the Federal Reserve.

    “This facility is intended to serve as an ultimate liquidity backstop,” and will be available through December next year, Mr Paulson said.

    He also said Treasury “is initiating a temporary program” to purchase mortgage-backed securities of Fannie and Freddie, to help provide liquidity in a financial market strained by a credit crunch.

    “Treasury will begin this new program later this month … Additional purchases will be made as deemed appropriate,” Mr Paulson said, adding: “There is no reason to expect taxpayer losses from this program, and, in fact, it could produce gains.”

    The scale of the program “will be based on developments in the capital markets and housing markets,” according to a Treasury fact sheet.

    Under the plan, Fannie and Freddie will “modestly” increase their portfolios of debt through the end of next year. Then, these will be reduced at the rate of 10 per cent a year in an effort to limit “system risk” to the financial system, Mr Paulson said.

    The portfolios will eventually stabilise “at a lower, less risky size”, he said.

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    mortgage loans

    Posted on 04 September 2008 by Alex

    PIMCO Scoops Fannie and Freddie Debt

    Some of the best values now lie in distressed mortgage-backed securities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds. PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund manager with over US$800 billion in assets, has been aggressively accumulating the debt of both lenders.

    Credit spreads for government mortgage agency debt have surged over the last few months and now trade at their highest levels in history compared to Treasury bonds. Premiums are now trading at just under 300 basis points or 3%.

    The government has already guaranteed that both crisis-plagued mortgage lenders won’t fail. That means Fannie and Freddie debt is cheap at current prices, even though shareholders are likely to get wiped-out if the government eventually nationalizes Fannie and Freddie.

    And as the mortgage market goes, so goes the real estate market…

    Buying Up Busted Properties

    U.S. real estate also offers excellent values, particularly from rising foreclosures and bank repossessions. This is exactly what occurred in the 1989-1991 Savings & Loan crisis. Then several years later, vulture investors earned big profits from buying cheap properties.

    In the most devastated real estate markets of Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida, investors can find an abundance of residential and even a growing universe of commercial properties gone bust.

    To be sure, financing has grown more difficult for even the most creditworthy of borrowers as banks balk at lending. But many deals will be closed in the coming months and years, as banks grow increasingly desperate to get rid of a truckload of properties at fire-sale prices.

    Real estate in the United States is extremely cheap when priced in euro, yen or most other currencies. In 2007, more than 20% of all residential property purchased in Manhattan was by Europeans. I expect that trend to accelerate in 2008, especially if the euro continues to soften.

    U.S. Stocks Offer Some of the Best Values in Global Markets –
    Especially when Accounting for Currency Changes!

    Lastly, U.S. stocks offer big values compared to other markets because of the potential for higher currency-adjusted returns.

    Over the last seven years, dollar-based investors have earned big profits in overseas stock markets, using the dollar’s decline to rack up huge currency-adjusted gains in foreign stock prices. But the opposite might occur now similarly to the 1995-1999 period, when U.S. markets outperformed foreign markets.

    Therefore, I expect U.S. stocks to finally benefit from a surge in foreign institutional money after years of net outflows. I also think the huge inflows into foreign equity funds will slow markedly over the next 12 months as mutual fund investors redirect capital to domestic funds, which have badly lagged behind other markets.

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    Fannie And Freddie

    Posted on 15 July 2008 by Alex

     
    Too big to fail, and too big to completely nationalise, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the errant twins of world finance remain stuck in a credit warp until the US Government can work out just what to do with these elephants.

    But there are a host of things that investors should be wondering about and looking for.

    Firstly, there are further tests ahead: Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley are all due to report second quarter earnings soon, as is JP Morgan.

    These reports will contain more big losses, some of which will surprise. In the wake of the Bear Stearns and now the Fannie and Freddie support from the US Government, any nervy fallout will be eased.

    But the fate of one, possibly two of these are not sorted out: market analysts wonder about Citigroup and Merrill Lynch which are busy downsizing, as is America’s second largest company, General Electric, which is in the process of selling billions of dollars of financial and industrial assets in an effort to improve its performance and financial strength.

    The US Treasury and Fed moves to stand behind Fannie and Freddie send two clear signals.

    First is that the credit crunch and associated financial crisis is far from over and remains a major problem.

    But secondly, it confirms that US authorities will do whatever is necessary to prevent a systemic meltdown in the US financial system.

    The later is important and will probably drive a bounce in share markets led by the financials which have been sold down dramatically over the last few weeks. That sell off continued yesterday in Australia and the US.

    Lodnon saw gains after a big Spanish bank bid for the struggling mortgage bank, Alliance and Leicester. The bid will go through.

    However, whether any bounce in shares proves to be durable or not is debatable. Certainly the rally after Bear Stearns surged, and then fizzled out miserably to where we are now. ”

    Will there be a rebound in share prices like there was for six weeks to two months after the rescue and bailout of Bear Stearns in mid-March by the Fed?

    Share prices surged strongly in that period with the Standard & Poor’s Index coming within a handful of points (less than 10) of going positive for the first time since its peak late last year.

    It has subsequently dropped so far to be down more than 21% from its peak last October/November and in the hands of the bears. Seven other major markets around the world had a similar experience in the aftermath of the Bear rescue; all are now in bear territory.

    That surge and bust will temper investor enthusiasm this time. 

     

    Fannie and Freddie join the other once proud standard bearers of American business, the commercial and investment banks, on the public teat of the discount window and the US Government will provide enough money and commit enough to buy shares to recapitalise both Fannie and Freddie to the point where they are able to operate independently again.

    Just how long that happens is the open ended 64 trillion dollar question. The discount window support for investment banks was initially until September, and now possibly into 2009 and the first anniversary of its extension next March.

    The Bear Stearns rescue sent a message that no investment bank would be allowed to collapse, and that the same banks would now be supported by the Fed’s discount window for as long as possible to enable them and their commercial banking rivals, to continue to lend money into the US economy.

    That has sort of happened, but US banks are cutting back their lending. The failure of an investment bank would lead to all sorts of knock-on effects throughout the global markets on debt, shares, credit insurance and a host of other products. Markets would shutdown until the damage was sorted.

    But if that was a problem with a $US40 billion rescue (in terms of the Fed’s support for Bear Stearns) what would the failure or enfeeblement of Fannie and Freddie do with their 38% share of the US mortgage market, and billions of dollars of debt and securities from them scattered through the portfolios of investors in every part of the world.

    Russia sent the US a pointed message on Friday when it expressed confidence in its $US100 billion of holdings in US agency debt (such as Freddie and Fannie paper) and how it regarded those holdings ratings as being on a par with US sovereign debt.

    Fund managers here have Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securities in their fixed interest portfolios.

    Their failure would have global repercussions to the extent that they guarantee mortgage debt that investors all around the world, including in Australia, are exposed to. There would be a knock on effect to our mortgages and to the value of investment portfolios.

    And any chance of the securitisation markets regaining strength would be destroyed overnight. Fannie Mae and then Freddie Mac were pioneers of mortgage securitisation.

    They are in fact the largest securitisers in the world: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issue debt to raise money for their purchases of mortgage securities. The companies accounted for about 81% of demand for mortgages in the first quarter as other buyers retreated. They also issue mortgage-backed bonds known as agency debt and shorter term three and six month debt

    They have continued financing housing while all forms of US bank lending has shrunk in the past quarter: down some 9% and one of the steepest falls on record. Bank lending had been growing at 15% in March in the US.

    Now in the US, as in Europe and Britain (as it was in Japan from 1989 till recently) the private sector’s ability to lend money and grow credit has weakened considerably.

    In the US, the Fed has the commercial and investment banks and now Freddie and Fannie on its discount window life support system; in Europe, the European central bank continues to provide similar support for banks, as does the Bank of England, Japanese banks no longer need help from the Bank of Japan, but the country is still not financially viable, with government debt far exceeding the size of the economy.

    But the US Government has pumped over $US92 billion of an expected tax rebate of around $US160 billion (including businesses and other groups); it is now financing house lending, one way or another, and student loans. Soon car loans and credit cards? Well, effectively, the Fed’s discount window operations is making sure those and other smaller credit markets don’t freeze up as well.

    It is no longer a question of low interest loans to help the less well off or to stimulate business: it’s making loans and cash advances to the US people without question that is now the main game of the US. defence etc are secondary.

    The government is influencing the financial life of the country in a way never seen before. Not even in The Depression.

    Sunday saw that extended with public money being committed to support Fannie and Freddie and fill the two blackest of holes in global finance.

     

     

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