The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index is a commodity price index created in 1957 and currently made up of 19 commodities (petroleum products, base metals, agricultural products…). It has a critical role as a transparent and widely available benchmark for the performance of commodities as an asset class.

In our last update of August 13, the bearish technical indicators were arguing for a further move on the downside. At this time the CRB index was trading at 385, and the expected target for the correction pullback was 363, which was a key Fibonacci ratio. The price action eventually fell below this level as it posted a closing low price at 341 on September 16.

A strong rebound has already driven the Index back to 366, the closing price yesterday. Investors consider that the correction that occurs on the global commodities markets has been too strong in a relatively short-time frame. Despite the lower demand worldwide generated by a slowing economic growth, the financial credit crisis and the action plan decided by US authorities is likely to make the US Dollar plunge. That’s why, as a mechanical hedge against the decline of the Greenback, the commodities have bounced back sharply.

Three days ago (September 22), surging prices for oil, silver, soybeans and gold sent the CRB Index to its biggest gain in more than five decades.

All 19 commodities in the index gained. However the very next sessions should be choppy as the price action has just reached a first resistance line. This resistance is built by the lower high points (points C, D and now E) posted since the beginning of the retracement initiated in early July (point A).

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Between A and B, the CRB fell by 28%. Despite the recent bounce back, the price action has failed to cross above the medium-term resistance line at 374, which also corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of the 2 months-and-a-half-decline, and to the 30-day moving average. There are consequently 3 good reasons for traders to sell back the CRB.

However the technical indicators have turned bullish therefore a further upside move is probable. The RSI showed that the CRB was clearly oversold, so did the Commodity Channel index that is now well oriented on the upside. The MACD has triggered a bullish signal last Friday.

If the current price development succeeds to clear the resistance level and to jump above 375, the next targets would probably be the next Fibonacci ratios, therefore 390 (38.2%) and 405 (50%).

Investors tend to forget that commodities are an extremely volatile asset class.

Price swings have always been violent and the recent surge lasting through July drew a huge amount of fast money from hedge funds and other institutions - which are all liquidating as I write this. Bank failures and bailouts have also pressured prices as liquidity-starved institutions make a run for hard cash.

But you must remember that commodities plunged in value in the mid-1970s en route to incredible all-time highs by January 1980. That’s happening again in 2008.

The CRB Index surged to an all-time high of 226.80 in September 1974 - at the height of the inflation squeeze, banking crisis and Arab oil embargo - and then commodities crashed to a new low of 175.90 by February 1975, a 22% plunge.

Gold prices, which Nixon set free in August 1971, soared to a high of US$184 an ounce in December 1974 based on the London monthly close. Prices then crashed all the way down to US$109 an ounce by August 1976. That’s a dizzying 41% drop.

Commodities can suffer a major bull market reversal, and that can make new investors nervous. Honestly, it wouldn’t be a surprise if commodities posted a negative year in 2008 after seven spectacular years of consecutive profits.

It is actually a positive development to see speculative money exiting the asset class because it takes policymakers’ attention away from high prices. Case in point: Earlier this summer Congress held special hearings to voice their concern over oil price manipulation. Now that prices are falling, Congress will once again turn a blind eye to the next run-up in the prices.

If you believe, like I do, that inflation is still very much embedded in the financial system then you must also adhere to hard assets, including gold. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that we’ll see much higher inflation as a result of this extravagant spending.

In my Commodity Trend Alert (CTA) service, we’ve recently raised our hedges against commodities. I anticipate tough markets for most of the sector until clearer signs emerge that the Fed has arrested deflation.

Still, I’m buying distressed oil companies and oil equipment stocks - and I’m buying oil right along side some of the best positioned global insiders. The energy sector remains the only segment of the marketplace heavily accompanied by net insider buying since prices began dropping in July.

Gold, which FDR confiscated in 1933, would probably rally in a deflationary economy. We got a taste of the huge gold rally to come when gold jumped over a US$100 last week after the AIG rescue.

Also, gold stocks haven’t been this cheap and bombed-out since 2005. In fact, the mining stocks trade at a seven-year low versus physical gold! You should be aggressively buying up this sector now.

Since July, commodity bulls have been trampled during the worst credit crisis in history. The entire complex has gone from being extremely overbought in June to heavily oversold in late September.

In just 30 days, the markets have violently transitioned from concerns about inflation to a sudden panic over deflation. The credit crunch has stopped inter-bank lending and corporate borrowing, leading us to the worst panic in American capitalism since the 1930s.

It’s also resulted in the most indiscriminate commodity sell-off since the bull market began in late 2001. And 2008 might be the first year since 2001 that commodity benchmarks finish in negative territory.

And until the deflation (i.e. the environment of rapidly declining prices) ceases, commodities will remain vulnerable. Never in the history of capitalism have commodity prices rallied during a severe contraction in bank credit.

When commodity prices are tanking, no one wants to know about mines, grades or new discoveries. Attention is on sliding share prices, falling prices for the commodity themselves, so rarely do investors concentrate on the underlying growth or ideas behind a company’s decision to do something. The only time heads pop up and look around when there’s some corporate activity: the chance to exit an investment because someone else has popped along with what seems to be a great offer in a falling market. That’s the greater herd theory at work: value can only be found in what the mob sees as a good idea or investment. And when times are tough and investors are scarce, interesting and intriguing news from the mining sector can slip past, almost unnoticed. In the past week or so we saw a couple of examples of this with Kagara Ltd revealing a very rich nickel strike in Western Australia, to go with mining plans for a big deposit it has outlined elsewhere in WA and Western Areas also revealing an upgrade to its Spotted Quoll prospect, which is in the same area (along the same strike zone actually) near Forrestania in Western Australia. Kagara last Wednesday had its shares suspended pending an announcement about the quality of the strike at its romantically named Lounge Lizard prospect in WA. That was done and the shares remained off the boards until Friday when it revealed that the strike was a very attractive grade of nickel (two years ago the shares would have gone mad). Kagara, which is a zinc and copper producer said it had found an intersection of “massive and semi-massive” nickel sulphides at the Lounge Lizard deposit in West Australia. “Kagara Ltd is pleased to announce a record intersection of massive and semi massive nickel sulphides in hole LFPD18W2W1 at the Lounge Lizard deposit in West Australia. The intersection is comprised of three zones of massive sulphide with an aggregate drilled width of 33.46 metres within a 76.50 metre section. “The intersection lies approximately 150 metres up dip of the previously announced indicated resource of 5.7 million tonnes at 1.08 % nickel which includes an indicated high grade resource of 263,000 tonnes at 6.42% nickel “To Kagara’s knowledge this intersection is the best in terms of contained nickel drilled, either historically or in recent times, in the Forrestania region and will result in a significant increase in the Lounge Lizard resource,” it said. But Kagara shares have been weak and are down sharply in the past week. They finished at $2.50 yesterday, down from $3.15 a week ago on Tuesday. They hit a 52 week low of $2.39 this week, breaching the previous low of $2.63. That’s a fall of around 19% in a week. The sharp fall in commodity prices has been the driver as no one wants to know anything about new metal discoveries. Copper, nickel, lead and zinc remain under pressure, and so does the Kagara share price The Kagara strike is north in the same area of Western Area’s Spotted Quoll nickel discoveries, which that company reported on earlier this month. It too has a very significant nickel discovery, but the market doesn’t want to know. Shareholders will be hoping for more at the AGM in Perth later today (Friday) The shares closed at $8.60, down 98 in the past two days. Investors are treating it like all other mining companies. No talk of a ‘boom’ here these days. Here’s part of what Western Areas said last week. “The Board of Western Areas is pleased to announce a 118% increase in the high grade mineral resource at Spotted Quoll.

“The revised mineral resource estimate at Spotted Quoll now comprises a total 1,045,900 tonnes at an average grade of 7.2% nickel for 75,140 tonnes contained nickel to only 300 metre vertical depth.

“The majority of the mineral resource (88%) is in the high confidence Indicated Mineral Resource category.

“This excellent result confirms the potential for a major underground mine below the proposed open pit. Western Areas is already considering early development of an underground mine which could produce ore concurrently with the latter stages of the open pit.

“In this event, production could significantly exceed the target 8,000 tpa nickel from Spotted Quoll. A mining proposal for the Spotted Quoll open pit has been lodged and, assuming this is approved by the end of 2008, ore production is expected to commence in the Sept Q 2009.

“The revised mineral resource rates Spotted Quoll as one of the world’s highest grade and most continuous nickel deposits, less than 12 months since its discovery in October 2007.

“Importantly, Spotted Quoll remains open at depth and open along strike. Further mineral resource upgrades are likely as drilling continues between 300m and 600m vertical depth.”

A map on page two of this announcement on Friday from Kagara shows the proximity of the two companies’ big strikes.

This was the second bit of good news from Kagara in recent weeks.

On August 22 it revealed more details about the deposit it was working on at Admiralty Bay with discussion about a possible mine. The shares rose after that, but that was very much different to the reaction to Friday’s announcement.

“Kagara is pleased to announce an initial resource estimate for the Admiral Bay deposit containing an Inferred resource of 72 million tonnes at a grade of 3.1% zinc, 2.9% lead, 18 grams per tonne silver and 11% barium reported at a nominal 2% zinc equivalent cutoff.

“This is a subset of a larger Inferred resource containing 97 million tonnes at a grade of 2.4% zinc (2.3 million tonnes of zinc), 2.9% lead (2.8 million tonnes of lead), 16 grams per tonne silver (48 million ounces of silver) and 16% barium also reported at a nominal 2% zinc equivalent cutoff.

“The model has been restricted to a 2.1 kilometre section of an 18 kilometre strike length of known mineralisation and the resource remains open to the east and west along strike.

“$35 million has been spent over the past 18 months at Admiral Bay and confirmed Admiral Bay as a deposit of world significance.

The company said the resource remains open to the west where the closest drill hole is located 2 kilometres along strike and which encountered a 13 metre intersection grading 4.3% zinc, 3.1% lead, 29 g/t silver and 9% barium and also encountered 25 metres grading 4.5% zinc, 0.8% lead, 23 g/t silver and 3% barium. Intersections of up to 20 metres at 8.3% zinc, 4.9% lead, 36 g/t silver and 21 barium from within the resource, have demonstrated the potential for higher grade zones within the overall resource.

“Scoping studies using the resource grades and contemplating a 10 million tonne per year underground operation have shown that the operation has the potential to produce 300,000 tonnes of zinc, 250,000 tonnes of lead and 4.5 million ounces of silver annually.

“Metallurgical test work has shown that coarse grained very high quality lead and zinc concentrates will be produced at recoveries in excess of 95% into very high quality concentrates.

“The cost of production is expected to be in the lowest quartile of cash costs worldwide.

“Metallurgical test work is continuing on the recoverability of barite to a saleable product and it is expected that a proportion of the 2 million tonnes of barite processed annually will be recovered which will further reduce the cash cost of production.

“A number of development options are currently being considered for taking the project forward.

“Drilling over the past 12 months has shown that defining a reserve from surface drilling is currently cost prohibitive and an exploration shaft with 2.5 kilometres of lateral development will be required to bring the project to a bankable status. At present, a diamond drilling program to obtain geotechnical information in preparation for the sinking of a shaft is nearing completion.”

So Admiralty Bay has a lot of potential, but there are higher costs than first thought in getting to them and getting them out.

But as attractive as they are, the market has gone right off resources and mining stocks in particular. It’s an old story for miners about the fickleness of the herd.

As I said yesterday, the commodity bull market isn’t over…not by a long shot. Even with the higher dollar and the temporary correction in oil prices, it’s still a mistake to think we’re on the cusp of a commodity bear market. 

This simply isn’t the same oil bull market we saw in the 1970s. For starters, the energy sector is not as reliant on U.S. domestic consumption compared to 10 or 20 years ago.

Compared to the last oil shock in the 1970s, China was barely a factor in global consumption. Today China is the primary reason why most commodities are in a secular bull market. That’s also the case regarding oil. It’s a primary demand-driven trend that won’t end anytime soon.

The Chinese are becoming big global consumers. Total domestic retail sales in China grew a formidable 23% year-over-year through July compared to just 0.1% in the United States. The Chinese are avid consumers and of course, major exporters. The economy will continue to grow and that means the consumption of raw materials, including oil.

Compared to the 1970s when China was barely a dot on the consumption map, today they   devour excess supplies of most commodities - especially on corrections or when prices dip lower. The Chinese hoard commodities during big corrections.

Barely Any Demand Destruction in China

What some investors fail to understand is the primary source of new oil demand comes from the emerging markets, not the United States or Europe.

According to Merrill Lynch, oil demand growth in the emerging markets has never contracted year-over-year in the modern era. Although demand destruction has started in the emerging markets, the overall trend for consumption remains long-term bullish.

Total oil supplies remain in deficit to the tune of roughly 2 million barrels per day or 87 million barrels of demand compared to 85 million barrels of supply. That discrepancy in supply and demand has been consistent for over a year and remains threatened by supply bottlenecks in many oil-producing markets and threats of regional conflicts.

Oil Stocks are Cheap

A stable dollar is a plus for world growth because a lower dollar will help moderate inflation for many emerging market currencies. This should stimulate economic growth and demand for oil and other distillate fuels at a time when the global economy is slowing.       

Provided that U.S. interest rates remain low for the foreseeable future, and they will, global economic growth will continue. Oil prices will find a floor. That makes energy stocks a great buy at these distressed levels.

I’ve been busy buying oil and energy services companies over the last few weeks following big price declines. Most oil stocks are not priced for US$75 oil let alone oil prices north of US$100 per barrel. And compared to banks, energy stocks have real assets and real earnings!

Cash-flows for the majors in the United States, Canada, and Europe are bulging and dividend payments are still increasing. These stocks now trade at 52-week lows and should form a bottom over the next several few weeks or sooner as oil prices finally trough.

Thank God for the Chinese!

To recap, the global macroeconomic picture is nothing like it was in the 1970s. This is perhaps the most significant bullish point I can make about this big correction for raw materials. We don’t have skyrocketing interest rates and double-digit inflation.

China is now a major player with regards to commodity consumption. It was almost insignificant 30 years ago. Thank goodness for the Chinese. If they didn’t exist the bear market in U.S. stocks and bonds would be far more severe, the dollar would be near-worthless and commodities would be trading in the basement.

Provided that global interest rates remain historically low and the United States and Europe can eventually stabilize the ongoing credit crisis then global economic growth should reaccelerate later in 2009.

A stable dollar will also mitigate inflationary pressure globally and that’s a positive development for new consumption. Also, slowing growth and lower commodities prices now will eventually open the door to central bank rate cuts in 2009 - a boon for commodities.  

The time to buy or accumulate new positions in the energy sector is now. The oil majors and the oil drillers have been smashed hard over the last six weeks and offer great value in an otherwise sluggish earnings landscape. Earnings for the oil majors and the drillers will continue to flourish even at US$75 oil, which I don’t expect unless the Chinese economy collapses. And that won’t happen anytime soon.    

Blame It On Oil and Germany

What’s causing the latest drop in gold prices? You can blame it on the resurgent U.S. dollar, falling crude oil prices, and the latest batch of economic data in Germany. The latest data coming out of the biggest Eurozone economy points to a contraction of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). This data was critical because it compelled foreign exchange traders around the globe to shift their focus and dump the euro last week.

A big drop in crude oil prices is another major factor lending support to rising stock values since mid-July. As inflationary pressures continue to ease, the market has begun to discount the possibility of a quick economic recovery in the United States later this year.

Lower commodity prices act like a tax cut for consumers. These lower prices reduce the coast of living and allow consumers to spend more disposable income to non-energy and food items.    

The dollar, of course, had been heavily oversold for months. Since peaking just north of 1.60 euro, the greenback has rallied an impressive 6.5% since early July.

In Europe, economic growth is now slowing sharply following the release of second quarter German GDP, which showed a contraction. Along with other stumbling economies in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to keep raising interest rates this year - especially if oil prices continue to decline.

That makes U.S. dollar assets more attractive for prospective investors because Europe is behind the United States in the economic and credit cycle.

The Reuters-CRB Index is the benchmark for commodity performance, reader. Just to refresh you a bit on its price action during the last few years, let’s have a look at a long-term weekly chart.

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A double-bottom (points A and B) occurred in 2001. As you can see, that was ground zero for the commodities boom.

The first bullish trend started in early 2002 and wound up in August 2006. During this period the CRB Index rose 92%.

One year of consolidation followed. Then the second bullish trend meant 58% gains for investors…until July this year. Then commodities took their second correction, breaking the long-term support line.

That’s the big picture. Now let’s switch to a short-term daily chart.

Click for a larger version

The second bullish trend mentioned above developed between point A and point B. During this period, the 75-day moving average was the stalwart of support. The break below this line on July 18 triggered bearish signals for many traders and fund managers. It was a key point around 435, as it was also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

The further move downward found a bit of support on the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, at 408, as the price action rebounded a bit (point C). Yesterday the price closed below the 50% Fibonacci level. We see another drop in the next few days.

The different oscillators and momentum indicators all show bearish configurations that should drive the CRB index lower. The RSI and MACD for example, despite currently reaching low levels, are still bearish.

The fast pace of commodity gains last year wasn’t sustainable. This is the commodity correction we had to have. It’s not the least bit surprising.

But here’s the part you’re probably interested in. Where does it end?

The next target now is clearly now around 363. There’s more than one reason for this.

Firstly it’s the last Fibonacci ratio (61.8% retracement level). Secondly, and foremost, it’s the level of a significant high. It was, indeed, the high of the first bullish trend ended 2 years ago (point D on the chart). Expect it to be the new low in the commodity boom.

This is a further 6% move on the downside from there. At 363 the CRB would be oversold. A technical rebound would be probable. That may be the point to buy back into resources. However, a break below 363 would give some further bearish momentum on the medium-term.

The Commodity and Currency Circle

If the global economy is slowing, and China is forced to work through excess inventory, demand for commodities will be impacted. I’m guessing crude oil prices, in particular, will suffer from the realities I just described.

And remember, commodity prices and currencies influence each other in a self-feeding circle.

For example, falling crude prices could be the one thing that allows U.K. and European central banks to begin lowering their interest rates.

If and when that happens, the dollar will become more attractive relative to those currencies.

It wouldn’t take a bold move on the part of the U.S. Federal Reserve, either (nor do I expect one).

A narrowing interest rate disadvantage between the dollar and euro - or the dollar and the pound - would be hugely supportive for the greenback.

In fact, this may very well be why the dollar HAS ALREADY been holding up given such incredibly dismal news day after day from the U.S. economy.

Take a look at this chart …

Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and crude oil.

At the very left of the red rectangle on my chart, you can see where the tight inverse correlation began to break down. That’s when the dollar bounced higher from its all-time low. Crude soared well beyond its record high at the same time.

Crude rallying and the dollar drifting slowly higher simultaneously? That was certainly no inverse correlation.

But from the furthest right point of that red box is where the tight inverse correlation has resumed. Only this time, the direction is in favor of the dollar. And it comes exactly after a new all-time high for crude prices.

Translation: The buck could be back.

The dollar has been able to continue its rally this week, even amidst a blitzkrieg of central bank announcements. While it has a long way to go - and recovery may not be swift - I think it’s time to keep the dollar rally scenarios in clear sight. Especially now that other economies are catching the bug.

Why the Next Six Months Will Be Your Best Chance to Buy Resources Since 2003

The resource bears took a few swipes yesterday, reader. This morning we read that the commodity boom is over.

It’s articles like this that are making companies like BHP cheap. It’s down 25% in a couple of months. And bears will make investing in commodity-based equities a good idea in the second half of the year. It’ll probably be the best opportunity you have to buy mining and energy stocks since 2003.

But buying resources is not as clear (or easy) as it once was, as you’ve probably found. And that article above isn’t just pessimistic. It’s utterly dismal. We felt like a pallbearer as we read.

“Demand from China is softening….the CRB Commodity Index fell 10% last month…gold will slump to $650 an ounce…”

Hey…we’re still locked up in our room with some sort of allergic reaction. But we’re not that feverish. Let’s unpack those comments.

China Shifts Gears to a Domestic Boom

“Demand from China is softening.”

Quite possibly true. China’s annual GDP is running at a rate of about 10% this month. That’s about 1.8% down on the high it hit last year. That means consumption has probably fallen off too.

But so has every country. It’s what happens in a credit crisis. You can put the drop in economic growth so far down to the shockwaves from America…not a fundamental demolition of Asian demand.

If you think that fall is a reason for dropping your Chinese-related investments, you automatically make an assumption. You assume that American spending is more important to China’s growth than Chinese spending.

That may have been true in the past. It won’t be in the future. China hasn’t yet accumulated the same income levels as Uncle Sam. But for every spender in the US, there are four in China. Add in India, and it’s more like eight.

So we don’t see a slowing China as the end of the boom this month. It’s more of a correction. Who knows? Maybe China needed this. It’s possible to grow too fast.

And looking at the 10% drop in commodity prices…well, that depends on your view of China. If you think it’s going down the toilet, be our guest and sell everything. If you think it’ll keep growing, commodities aren’t dropping. They’re getting cheaper.

Where will commodity prices go from here? Well, just as all asset classes moved up in a simultaneous bull market from 2003 to 2007, we now have the possibility of all asset classes—equities, property, bonds, and commodities—moving down in a simultaneous bear market. It could be protracted, global, and unavoidable.

–We asked Gabriel to take a look at the CRB Index and tell us what he saw. He produced the chart below.

–What does the chart tell us? Gabriel says that, “The commodities index is experiencing a correction that should go further…This downturn corrects the bullish trend started in last August. Between August 22 last year and July 3 this year (points A and B on the chart), the index jumped by nearly 57%.”

–“The bearish momentum is likely to drive the index lower,” Gabriel adds. “The 75-day moving average was a good support to the bullish trend. The price action crossed below it on July 18. It was also corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci level. This breakout is a clear bearish signal. Moreover the index is not yet oversold.”

–Well. None of that is good news for resource bulls. It suggests that there is a capitulation low yet to be put in. That’s the point at which even resource investors begin to doubt the wisdom of being long. The market will shake out anyone without conviction between now and then.

Resource Stocks Selling Below Book Value

Investors dropped everything and stampeded out of the resource sector yesterday, reader. We mean everything. There are kitchen sinks lying all over the place. According to the Australian Financial Review, Lynas (ASX:LYC) was the best-performed miner in the top 200 yesterday. It only lost 0.4%.

So today’s issue is an idea-fest. Among the wreckage there are good stocks. Really, unless you believe there isn’t a good miner in the country, that has to be true. They all went down.

But before we get to ideas…why did the miners cop such a drilling yesterday?

Falling commodity prices. Oil’s trading at US$116 this morning. It’s leading a lot of other hard assets down. If you’re a fan of the charts, stay tuned for tomorrow’s MM. Gabriel can tell you what this plunge means for technical traders and the market’s sentiment.

Today, we have two things to say about the commodity correction.

It’s only a correction. And it’s not an all-in, broad bear market like the one you’re seeing in financials shares.

On the first point…look at what commodities have done since 2004.

No market can keep that up forever. When you hear that metals are down, or that wheat is losing ground…it’s mainly because in the last 4 years their prices took enough ground to fill the Grand Canyon.

And it’s not a bear market. Why? Because in a bear market, everything falls. That simply isn’t the case with commodities. Take a look at a break-down of that chart above.

Those are the key sectors for Australia’s trade. They don’t move in tandem, contrary to what a lot of people believe. The financial drama ended in tragedy. That’s because no-one needed a reason to buy financial stocks anymore. They just did it.

But every commodity is different, with different sources of supply and demand. We guess if you wanted an analogy for the financial market…they only trade mainly in one commodity: interest rates.

Resource stocks aren’t all the same. So we don’t expect them all to drop at once. And when they do…like yesterday…it means some are probably more valuable than they look.

Some are even trading below their book value.

Companies in the Materials Sector Trading Below Book Value

Companies in the Energy Sector Trading Below Book Value

Flat Rates…Falling Oil…Wall Street Gains 3%

But the deflation of some commodities is bringing some buyers back to the market. Add in the fact that the Federal Reserve declined to cut rates again. What do you have?

A 3% bounce in the Dow.

In a ridiculous circle of un-logic, we’re now left with a huge opening in the All Ordinaries today. The ASX200 Materials and SAX200 Mining indices are flying with a 2% gain already.

Falling commodities yesterday meant a falling ASX. The fall in oil also meant the Dow rose. And if the Dow goes up, the ASX follows it like a lost puppy. Make up your mind, ASX.