Tag Archive | "Bank Of England"

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Fed Leads New Cash Bailout For Globe

Posted on 21 September 2008 by Alex

 

World markets steadied overnight after major central banks revealed huge large-scale emergency $US180 billion injections of dollar liquidity in an attempt to halt the global financial market crisis.

Wall Street finished up strongly with the S&P 500 up over 4%; oil rose to $US102 a barrel, then fell back to  $US96, gold jumped again to close to $US900 an ounce, European markets were down, but not out and confidence seemed to be a little stronger than on Wednesday.

Reports circulated of a new US Government funds to buy distressed assets and even shares.

And the pressure on interest rates eased as the flood of cash out of the stockmarket eased: US 10 year bond yields edged up to 3.54%, a small but welcome rise.

Helping was the central bank move.In total $US180 billion in new facilities, with another $US110 billion being created by some of the non-US central banks.

And the UK financial regulator cracked down on short selling of financial stocks, following the US SEC the day before. And there was talk of some sort of Government ’solution’ whatever that means.

The Fed and the ECB will make big injections of cash on a daily basis until further notice.

The announcement, timed at 3 am East Coast US time yesterday morning on the US Federal Reserve’s website  revealed the largest direct, coordinated intervention so far. That put the announcement right into the start of European trading.

Besides the Fed the other central banks were the bank of Japan, The European Central bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Swiss National bank; all of whom were involved in similar, but smaller coordinated injections on liquidity over the past year.

But nothing as large as this.

And, important for us here, Australia wasn’t involved.

Our Reserve bank has pumped more than $A11 billion into our markets this week so far to keep liquidity levels high, but that has been of the RBA’s own estimation, not part of a wider effort.

It has injected funds; the Bank of Japan was doing something similar, but the moves haven’t been coordinated.

The RBA pumped in $A3 billion yesterday while the banks boosted the amount they kept in the Exchange Settlement Account with the RBA overnight to more than $A6 billion, in case there were problems overnight.

That’s because Australia doesn’t need a coordinated approach designed to boost the supply of US dollars to keep the markets liquid, especially in Europe.

The central banks involved in the coordinated move said they would “continue to work closely together and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures.”

The funding remains in place until well after January 1, 2009.

Asian stock markets regained much of their losses on Thursday as news of the intervention by the six central banks spread across the region.

The ECB and the Bank of England did larger than expected auctions of cash in the morning overnight to ram home the point that there was enough money available to meet all needs.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.03% lower at 17632, 46 after first appearing to have closed in positive territory. Earlier in the day the index fell much as 7.7% after fears grew that there would be losers after the $US85 billion dollar bailout of AIG.

The Russian market traded fitfully last night after freezing the day before and trading being suspended on the stockmarket. There was limited trading yesterday but full trading is due to resume tonight, our time.

The authorities are pumping in billions of dollars today into the markets (share and credit) to try and maintain stability when dealings start tonight, our time

Lloyds TSB and HBOS completed the preliminaries on their merger/takeover, despite criticism from some HBOS shareholders. They didn’t understand the option was nothing, or something.

News of the central bank move broke about half an hour before equity trading finished in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng surged by nearly four per cent in just over 20 minutes.

Last night the Chinese Government revealed plans to scrap stamp duty on share deals to help boost confidence levels among investors.

Markets in Australia, Japan and China missed the impact.

The central bank moves came too late for Australia where Macquarie Bank was hammered, closing down 23%

The Nikkei ended 2.2% in Tokyo at a 27-month closing low of 11,489.30, after earlier dropping as much as 3.8$; In China, the Shanghai composite index closed 1.7% lower at 1,895.84. 

In Australia, the ASX 200 index closed 2.4% down at 4,607.30. But Australia had been down more early in the day.

Losses also quickly narrowed elsewhere in Asia and in Europe, markets opened stronger and US futures reversed an easier tone to rise.

Vulnerable HBOS was rescued, and attention in the US was on the fates of Morgan Stanley, which was reportedly talking to several groups, including Wachovia and HSBC and Washington Mutual, the big savings and Loan, which may receive an offer later today.

Now there’s talk Morgan Stanley is talking to a Chinese sovereign wealth fund about selling a 49% stake. Morgan shares were sold off sharply overnight, while Goldman Sachs shares were also sold down.

The ECB said in its announcement that it would expand its armoury by offering “for as long as needed” $US 40 billion in overnight funds to eurozone banks.

The Bank of England moved to add additional funds into the stressed sterling markets, announcing that it would renew the 25 billion pounds (around $US35 billion) it loaned the banking sector earlier this week for another seven days and is expanding the ability of banks to borrow from their own funds kept on deposit at the central bank.

The ECB is expanding its reciprocal arrangements with the US Fed to increase to $US25 billion the amount it provides in the market for 28-day funds and $US15 billion over 84 days.

Under the expanded plans, the amount of outstanding dollar liquidity provided by the ECB could reach as much as $US 110 billion – compared with $US50 billion. This is designed to boost the amount of US dollars available in Europe. The Fed will conduct auctions and the ECB and the Bank of England will price their auctions off those rates.

The Bank of Japan has agreed make available $US60 billion (In a Term Auction Facility) of dollar liquidity, and the Bank of Canada $US10 billion.

The ECB and the Bank of England said they would each offer up to $US40 billion in overnight funds.

The Fed said it would authorise $US180 billion expansion of temporary foreign currency swap arrangements and Bank of Japan announced it would launch dollar-supply operations as part of the worldwide effort to tackle the dollar shortage.

Earlier on Thursday central banks in Japan, Australia and India pumped a further $US28 billion into money markets while China relaxed its policy for the second time this week.

South Korea sold US dollars in the swap market and said it would try to halt the slide in bond prices, the Philippines intervened to support the peso, and not for the first time this week, Taiwan said it could use a state fund to prop up stocks.

 

 

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RBA, ECB, Fed, Bank Of England

Posted on 04 August 2008 by Alex

 
Attention for investors here will be on the market financials like the banks, June 30 companies reporting and the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow, but we should also not take our eye off the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision early Wednesday morning, our time.

There are also corporate reports in the US, Europe and Britain that could influence markets, while some important statistics will also be released and could influence markets, especially our jobs numbers for July on Thursday.

All in all it will be another week of volatility for investors to contend with.It was a year ago this Tuesday that the RBA lifted interest rates to 6.50%; that was the start of four increases that the credit crunch later turned into at least six, or 1.50% or more on mortgage and other rates.

Here we have the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow: no change is expected. The Fed tomorrow night, our time and the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday night, our time.

After the flood of poor economic news in Australia last week, there’s a small chance of a cut here, but not much.

What will be interesting is whether there’s a change in its post meeting statement to signal that an easing is in the offing.

The money market has already priced in a 20% chance of an RBA cash rate cut on Tuesday and a 90% probability of a move by October, with two cuts by next February.

Australian statistics due for release include the June quarter and 2007-08 financial year house price index, and job ads today, housing finance and employment and unemployment figures for July on Thursday.

Unemployment could show a small rise to partly reverse the surprise jump in the number of new jobs in June.

The June full year and half year profit reporting season will also start to kick off with stocks such as AXA, Seven network, News Corp and West Australian News due to report.

The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says his group expects overall profit growth for 2007-08 to come in pretty weak at around +3%, down from +15% in the previous financial year.

“The economic back drop to this reporting season is the toughest since 2000-01 as growth has slowed sharply and costs have picked up. All sectors, including resources which have been hit by rising costs, are likely to report soft results for 2007-08.

“However, while the results are unlikely to be the disaster the market is currently priced for after its 30% slump from last year’s high, the focus over the next few weeks of the reporting season is likely to be on the outlook statements released by companies and these are likely to be disappointing.

“While market expectations for 60% growth from resources in 2008-09 are reasonable given the latest surge in coal and iron ore prices, consensus expectations for 5 to 10% growth in the rest of the market are likely way too strong and will be revised down.” he wrote.

After Friday’s shock earnings downgrade from insurer and bank, Suncorp Metway, anything is possible.

Important results this week will include transport and infrastructure operator, Asciano.

It’s been a constant mention as a possible victim of the credit crunch and had to abandon a stalking takeover attempt of Brambles at a big loss.

Its shares have risen recently, so perhaps the company might be out of trouble. Its price has bounced from less than $3 a share to $4.15 close on Friday. The shares rose 71 cents alone last week!

Media groups, News Corp, Seven Network and West Australian Newspapers all release final profit this week. Seven is stalking WAN and recently lifted its stake to over 22% in a major creep up the register.

News Corp’s newspaper operations in the US and Britain will take a hit and some analysts believe its US Pay TV, film and TV business may also be hurt by indifferent performance and falling consumer spending in the recessed US economy.

Tabcorp is another group of interest to report since the Victorian Government snatched its gaming licence post 2012 away from it. The company’s shares have been weak ever since and there has been talk of some corporate activity.

In the US the focus will be on the Federal Reserve which is expected to leave interest rates on hold and highlight the offsetting upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.

 

The Fed last week added extra liquidity moves to help a still “fragile” financial system which will push its help out into January 2009.

Friday saw the 8th US bank to be seized and closed by regulators this year: it was only a tiddler with just over $US250 million in assets and based in Florida. 

But the news of the failure, coming on a Friday after trading ended, will worry investors again: it’s the third Friday in a row that a bank failure has been announced.

The key US regulator, the FDIC, warned four other small US banks Friday to either get new capital, stop lending in some areas, or to stop issuing credit cards. This can be a precursor to later problems as managements struggle to find new capital or income streams.

We will also get US data for pending home sales, personal spending and the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation will also be released, while in London The Bank of England also meets to consider interest rates, as will the ECB.

Both central banks will most probably leave rates steady, although the Bank of England is under enormous pressure to ‘do something” to ease the economic pain and the slide towards recession.

Like here, the US and other major economies, rising inflation seems to be the least concern in Britain for most people these days, even with high petrol prices still cutting demand at retailers.

US corporates reporting this week and likely to influence the market are tech bellwether Cisco Systems, consumer products giant, Procter & Gamble and troubled insurer American International Group. All are due to report on Tuesday, US time.

US analysts say that even if the earnings reports are solid and bring some relief, US investors will be on edge as concerns about the impact of the credit crisis on the economy persist. 

That’s especially so after Friday’s report on Friday showed US unemployment rose to 5.7% in July, its highest rate in four years, as employers cut 51,000 non-farm payroll jobs.

That’s why the spotlight will fall on the Fed’s statement that will accompany its rate decision on interest rates early Wednesday morning, our time.

The poor jobs report, along with lower-than-expected second-quarter US economic growth figures, have helped cement views that the Fed will keep benchmark lending rates steady at 2% for several months.

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