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Midday Market Roundup 31/07/08

Posted on 01 August 2008 by Alex

Wall St is up 452 points in two days and we are trying to respond but struggling. After a 79 point rise early on the market is now flagging in low volume to be up 33 - Not as promising as the 92 point rise the SFE Futures. Resources outperforming +2.1% led by the big boys – BHP, RIO and FMG up 2.5%, 2.2% and 3.8%. The drop in the market from the open this morning has come in financials – they were up 1.6% and are now down 0.6%. The NAB has announced a new CEO following last week’s profit warning. They were up 2.1% first thing and are now down 1.3%. Stocks hitting fresh yearly lows today include TABCORP Holdings and Patties Foods.

Wall Street closed up 186. Up 189 at best. Up all session – closed on high. It was a good night for Financials +2%, diversified banks up 3.8% and Investment banks and brokerages +3.5%. Bush signed the Housing Bill that will save 15% of flailing home-owners – designed to reduce foreclosures. Fannie Mae and Freddie Macquarie Group up 5.3% and 3.7% after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended the emergency limit on naked shorting until August 12th. Oil had a good night – up 3.7% - which led to oil sensitive stocks falling - Automobiles down 3.8% and the Amex Airline Index down 4.9%. 2Q earnings on the S&P have dropped 24% verses a year earlier says Bloomberg – Ex financials earnings have gained 2.8% so far. Companies missing 2Q estimates: Garmin down 22%, Cisco down 1.12%, and Electronic Arts down 6.56% offset strength in Comcast which was up 4.64% despite posting below-expectation-results. The NASDAQ had an OK session closing up 0.44%.

  • Both BHP and RIO up in ADR form overnight, 2.7% and 4.16% respectively.
  • Metals mostly up overnight – Copper up 1.23%, Nickel up 3.9% and Zinc down 0.32%. Aluminium was unchanged.
  • Oil price up $4.53 to $126.74 after a surprise 3.5m barrel fall in U.S. inventories.
  • Gold down $13.60 to $902.90
  • Bonds down with the 10 year yield up to 4.05% from 4.04%.

The big news this morning is that Brisconnections unit trusts (BCSCA) have listed today at a dollar and have traded at 48c. This is the company described by its own CEO as a natural short. That should put a few planned floats on the back burner for a month or twelve.

The other big news today is the National Australia Bank (NAB) announcing Cameron Clyne as John Stewarts replacement. Clyne currently heads the NAB’s New Zealand operations and will take over from Stewart on Jan 1 2009, but will become group CEO designate on October 1 to “ensure an orderly handover”. The fact that the appointment was internal suggests that either the NAB management has depth or it has a lack of options. Coming so close after the profit warning the market would be excused for a wry smile on the NAB statement that “Mr. Clynes appointment represented the culmination of an extensive succession planning exercise conducted over the last 18 months”. Nothing to do with the profit warning then. NAB was up but is now down 38c to 2509c.

Double Whammy for Woolworths: New Zealand’s Court of Appeal overturned a High Court ruling that would have allowed Woolworths and Foodstuff to make a takeover bid for The Warehouse Group in NZ. On another issue, the AFR reports that the ACCC is set to propose several major reforms from its grocery price inquiry, which will include a Grocery Watch price monitoring system. WOW down 9c to 2495c.

  • ABC Learning has released a Trading Update: Expects FY08 Loss before tax $437m due to additional write-downs and provisions and it won’t pay a 2H dividend. Says it is compliant with all banking covenants and that the first three weeks of FY09 have been encouraging. ABS down 11% to 73c.
  • Goldman Sachs and Southern Cross Securities sell 30m shares in Fortescue at 800c ($240m). 4.8% discount – on behalf of an early backer (KC Wong?) – offered to International institutions. KC Wong has 134m shares. He bought at prices of between 1 and 3c. Harbinger also thought to be a seller of 17.5% but more likely to do it to a buyer than to the market. Hasn’t done the share price any harm this morning. FMG up 47c to 887c.
  • Alumina (AWC) interims are out – look good - 1H Net profit of $43.8m with underlying earnings off $152m, in line with 2H07. Declared an interim dividend of 12c and expects global demand to remain strong. AWC up 12c to 449c.
  • Leighton Holdings (LEI) announced its John Holland division has been appointed construction partner for the $240m contract to strengthen the West Gate Bridge. LEI up 11c to 4236c.
  • Just Group (JST) up slightly after saying it expects to announce a 3.5% rise in 2H sales with FY08 sales above the mid point of its guidance. JST up 9c to 326c.
  • Asciano (AIO) flying – up over 10% - on speculation it may have cancelled plans for dilutive rights issue of over $1bn and be about to embark on asset sales instead. AIO up 49c to 415c.
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE) has released their June Q report. June Q revenue of $254m, resulting in record FY revenues of $821m. AWE has net cash reserves of $339m, is debt free and is looking for growth opportunities. AWE up 5c to 359c.
  • St. George Bank’s (SGB) board has re-endorsed its recommendation for the Westpac takeover offer during a two-day meeting that ended yesterday afternoon. SGB up 29c to 2700c and WBC up 19c to 2113c.
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) up on the news that Macquarie has put it on their restricted list (can’t publish research recommendation or advise on it) prompting the rumour that it is one Macquarie satellite that will be privatised. MIG up 4c to 265c.
  • Perilya (PEM) announced production numbers – June Q Broker Hill lead output 13,368 tons and Zinc output 28,344 tons. Metal output up 18.5% on the Q. PEM up 1c to 54c.
  • Arrow Energy (AOE) have increased their net 2P reserves by 81%. AOE up 6c to 329c.
  • ROC Oil (OSH) has released their Bidder’s Statement for Anzon Australia.  ROC down 0.5c to 149.5c.
  • ConnectEast Group (CEU) announces EastLink average daily trips of 270,868 in the first 25 days.  CEU down 0.5c to 94c/
  • ANZ CEO Mike Smith has told The Australian that the market has had “a correction that was needed” (don’t you hate that hindsight cliché) and investors had “lost sight of the fact that banks are still very profitable businesses” in this country. ANZ up 19c to 1629c.

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Midday Market Roundup 28/07/08

Posted on 28 July 2008 by Alex

Midday Market Roundup 28/07/08

 

Not a good start to the week – down 72 after an ANZ profit warning – the banks have knocked over 50 points off the index – that comes despite the SFE Futures predicting a 24 point rise in the market this morning prior to the warning. The ANZ has experienced its second worst day ever. Friday was its 3rd worst. They have followed in the NAB’s footsteps and announced $1.2bn worth of provisions. Financials down 3.6%. Resources putting up a bit of a fight – outperforming +0.6%. Financials down 4.2%.

 

The Dow Jones closed up 21 on Friday - Up 95 at best. Down 24 at worst. The Dow closed down 1.09% for the week but is off 4.8% of its low last week. The positive session came on the back of upbeat economic data and mostly decent earnings reports. Financials down 0.6% after being down as much as 2.2% early on – concerns remain regarding the strength of the banks’ balance sheets. Congress working to push the enactment of the sweeping housing legislation which just passed by lawmakers this weekend. Bloomberg report that the ‘Bank of America, JP Morgan and US lenders may sign up customers backed by the government, and cast off bad home loans after Congress passed legislation to prop up Fannie and Freddie. Technology up 1.6% - Nasdaq outperformed after strong gains in majors – Microsoft up 2.83%, Yahoo! up 2.92%, Google up 3.44%, Apple up 1.94%, Intel up 1.57% - helped by Juniper Networks beating 2Q profits expectations.

 

  • Both BHP and RIO up 2% in ADR form on Friday.
  • Metals mixed on Friday – Copper up 0.7% and Aluminium up 0.65%, Zinc down 0.8% and Nickel down 1.72%.
  • Oil price down $2.03 to $122.58 – down seven of the last nine sessions, and is down 16% from its $147 peak. Woodside down 179c to 5042c.
  • Gold up $4.50 to $926.80. Newcrest up 23c to 2918c.
  • US Bonds down with the 10 year yield up to 4.10% from 4%.

 

John Stewart (NAB CEO) was on TV at the weekend painting a pretty grim picture with the message that the NAB has taken the pain now, but everyone else has to follow. ANZ have obliged this morning with a profit warning of their own.They will announce 2H provisions of around $1.2bn due to ongoing deterioration in the global credit markets. 2008 Cash EPS expected to fall by 20-25%. CEO Mike Smith says, “ANZ’s underlying business is continuing to deliver a solid performance, and we expect a cash profit of over $3 billion in 2008…However we need to recognize where we are at with legacy issues in Institutional and the change in the economic cycle.” Dividend maintained. ANZ down 10% or 177c to 1598c.

 

It has been a busy start to the week…

  • Lots of research this morning on the National Australia Bank(NAB) after its profit warning on Friday - ABN AMRO has a target price of 3496c down from 3746c. Were’s maintain their Buy recommendation but took them off the BUY conviction list. They have a 3333c target price and believe the stock was oversold on Friday. Merrill Lynch and Macquarie have UNDERPERFORM recommendations. NAB down 64c to 2592c.
  • Macarthur Coal (MCC) has welcomed the formal approval by the board of South Korea’s Posco of its purchase of a 10% stake in the company. MCC up 79c or 6% to 1430c.
  • Australand Property (ALZ) has announced a 79% fall in 1H profit to $25.6m due to a downturn in the residential market conditions, especially in NSW. ALZ currently in a trading halt ahead of a capital raising to strengthen its balance sheet. ALZ unchanged at 97.5c.
  • Mirvac Group (MGR) MD Greg Paramor will be replaced with current Executive Director Nick Collishaw after delivering MGR’s annual result on August 26. MGR down 7% to 228c.
  • Qantas Airways (QAN) has appointed Alan Joyce – current chief executive of subsidiary Jetstar – as CEO and will replace Geoff Dixon after the annual shareholders meeting on November 28. QAN down 4c to 345c.
  • Atlas Iron (AGO) has announced a significant increase and update to resources estimates of its Ridley Magnetite. 52% increase in total resources to 1.32bn tonnes. AGO up 3c to 258c.
  • Lend Lease (LLC) have won a $344m retail development contract. LLC down 1c to 978c.
  • Equinox Minerals (EQN) has announced that the recent exploration drilling at its Kanga Prospect continues to intersect significant copper intercepts. Hasn’t done much for the price. EQN down 6c to 364c.
  • Iron ore Peru project developer Strike Resources (SRK) up 4.3% after a $103m placement at a 39% premium to a Russian steel billionaire (who owns part of the Arsenal Football Club). SRK up 9.5c to 207c.
  • Coal stocks blitzing it after Felix Resources (FLX) up 11.4% after it announced that it is now a takeover target. It has received takeover interest from a number of parties, but all talks are preliminary and no formal written offer have been made. FLX up 11% to 1957c.
  • Orica (ORI) down 12% after raising around $600m through an institutional placement at 2275c to pay debt and fund growth. They will also have a 1 for 8 retail rights issues at 2250c.
  • Chairman of soon to be listed BrisConnections Trevor Rowe says his company is a “natural short” (?!). It will be the biggest float for 2008 - $1.2bn. Lists this week.
  • Revenue from Macquarie Infrastructure Group’s (MIG) France’s Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhone increased 1.9% from last year in the last Q and 4.4% in the last half year. MIG down 12c to 253c.
  • Merrill Lynch have upped their recommendation on St George Bank (SGB) to BUY saying there’s a higher chance that the St George deal goes ahead with ACCC basically giving the takeover the green light. SGB down 6% to 2686c.

 

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Fox Resources Halts Mining

Posted on 08 July 2008 by Alex

Fox Resources Halts Mining

 

It won’t be the last move of its kind by an Australian mining company.

Small miner, Fox Resources yesterday announced that it had been forced to wind down underground mining at its Radio Hill operation in Western Australia and defer a key nickel project after a drop in metal prices in recent weeks.

It’s another sign, first evident in the March quarter, but obscured by the surge in oil prices and record price rises for iron ore and coal in recent contracts, that the resources boom is very old and looking to disappear.

Fox said yesterday in a statement to the ASX that it would complete underground mining and milling operations at the Radio Hill nickel and copper mine by the end of this month and defer the start of the Sholl B2 nickel project until 2009 following a fall in the nickel price.

The price of nickel slumped to a two-year low of just over $US20,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Friday amid a supply surplus for the steelmaking ingredient. 

Stainless steelmakers have been substituting other materials or cutting back on the amount of ferro nickel they are using ever since prices for the metal spiked to over $US50,000 a tonne 15 months or more ago.

Fox shares dropped 5c, or 6.25%, to close at 75c.

The company said it would turn its attention to explore for iron ore, nickel and copper in the Pilbara region of Western Australia and work to improve the efficiency of the Radio Hill mine.

Fox said it would: “increase iron ore exploration drilling at the new Mt Oscar Iron Ore Project following recent drilling success. A second drill rig is expected on site in July 2008 and an update on the progress and outlook for Mt Oscar will be announced later in the week.

“Continue base metal exploration at the Bertram Nickel Project, Radio Hill and the De Beers Base Metals Projects. The Company is currently in discussions with China’s largest nickel producer Jinchuan, to boost the Company’s greenfields (no previous exploration) base metals exploration in the region within its 3,000 square kilometres of tenements.

“Upgrade the Radio Hill mill with the installation of a new crushing circuit, which is expected to significantly reduce the operating cost and improve mill efficiency. Jinchuan has offered excellent support including technical assistance and supply of all components required for the crusher upgrade.

“And defer the commencement of the Sholl B2 nickel project to 2009. Sholl B2 was expected to commence production after the completion of the Radio Hill underground operations in the second half of 2008, as announced on 14 January 2008.”

The move has been backed by the company’s largest shareholder, Jinchuan Group, which is China’s largest nickel producer. (It was a big shareholder in Allegiance Nickel which was taken over by Zinifex, shortly before it revealed plans to merge with Oxiana.)

“We believe this decision will be in the best interest of shareholders and Jinchuan looks forward to supporting Fox throughout this exciting phase of growth,” Jinchuan’s non-executive director on the Fox board, Tian Yulong, said in a statement to the ASX.

Jinchuan holds about 10.92% of Fox.

Sholl B2 was described by Fox in January as a “key deposit” in the company’s developing nickel business and was expected to come into production in the second half of this calendar year.

In a commentary on last week’s commodity market action in metals, Goldman Sachs JBWere said that it was “another turbulent week for base metals - copper briefly traded at fresh highs for the year on Thursday with cash hitting $4.08/lb, but Friday saw demand worries return to the fore and copper dropped 4%.

“At the other end of the spectrum it was all one way traffic for the oversupplied lead market – prices fell 14% on the week - with cash now at 70c/lb it’s hard to believe lead was trading at almost double that price just four months ago!

“With Peruvian strike action petering out, attention is refocusing on the demand side of the equation – in particular China’s resilience to OECD economic weakness. 

“Notwithstanding energy related cost-push and potential for further supply disruptions, the next couple of months could be a bumpy ride for base metals as (northern hemisphere) summer shutdowns exacerbate an already uninspiring demand outlook in the major OECD economies.

“We therefore believe that earnings disappointments and downgrades to earnings forecasts are likely during the July/August period. 

“Coupled with weaker macro-economic sentiment and the likelihood of seasonal softness in commodities prices, this is likely to lead to further share price volatility through the September quarter.”

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Markets Battered

Posted on 07 July 2008 by Alex

 
America was closed, Europe and Asia sagged, oil retreated a little, and other commodity prices were leaderless: American holidays continue to emphasise the primacy of US markets in setting global price levels in a wide range of products.

European markets fell 2.7% (some individual markets were off more, some less); US markets were off around 1.2% or a bit more (but closed on Friday), Asia was down more than 3% and Australia was off 3%-plus as well, despite Friday’s rise. Our market will be flat to slightly weaker today judging by the futures market Friday night.

Friday’s rise here was a bit of a ‘con job’ by punters looking to exploit higher commodity prices, and not worrying that the US markets were closed or the European markets were unsettled.

There was this belief that the poor US jobs figures were ‘good news’ because the 62,000 jobs lost meant US interest rates were not rising any time soon. Jobs losses in the US are going to worsen in coming months. 

US investors and some local optimists still don’t understand that 2008 earnings in the US, Europe and here are going to worsen, before they get better and that forecasts for a big rebound in 2009 are off the planet. Some forecasts have US earnings rising 20% in 2009.

The AMP’s chief strategist, Dr Shane Oliver said in a note on Friday that “It’s anyone’s guess as to where it will go in the short term. If the oil price continues to surge then shares will remain under pressure, if it falls back then shares will have a great rebound.

“The high and still surging oil price along with slowing growth virtually everywhere, inflation worries and high bond yields are all short term headwinds for shares. Furthermore, the period out to September/October is often rough for shares. 

“As such, it remains a time for investor caution and this is likely to be the case for the next three or four months.

“Although the next few months are likely to remain rough with further falls possible, we still see shares rallying sharply in the December quarter as the oil price falls back to a level more in line with supply and demand fundamentals, the economic outlook starts to improve and investors start to take advantage of attractive share valuations. The last quarter of the year is normally strong.

“Australian shares are now trading on their lowest forward PE since 1996 and their highest dividend yields since 1991, when bond yields were above 10%. See the above chart. 

“While industrial companies are likely to see profit downgrades, current share prices are implying a greater than 20% slump in overall profits and this seems very unlikely. Prices from their highs last year they are currently trading on an 8.8% distribution yield, which is their highest since June 1996. 

“Even if average distributions are cut by 10%, this still makes for a very attractive yield.

“After the sharp rise in yields in the last few months, made worse by recent inflation fears, bonds should provide better returns over the next six months as yields decline if as we expect global growth keeps slowing and inflation fears abate.

“While the ride for the $A will remain volatile, Australia’s strong terms of trade and high relative interest rates are supportive of further gains. 

“We remain of the view that it is only a matter of time before parity is reached. The elimination of the monthly trade deficit on higher iron ore and coal prices will also likely be a positive for the $A.”

But Goldman Sachs JBWere said in a commentary during the week:

“During FY08 the Energy and Resources outperformed significantly and the only sectors to post positive returns. 

 

“The brunt of the selling was experienced in Consumer Discretionary, REIT’s, Industrials and Financials which experienced declines exceeding 25%, the majority of this occurring over the last 6 months.

“To date the share price declines have been driven largely by PE deratings in anticipation of increasing earnings risk with relatively little by way of negative earnings revisions coming through outside of those companies with excessive leverage.

“The economic data flow during June provided further evidence that the domestic economy is slowing, with retail sales, building approvals and credit growth all continuing to soften. 

“Employment growth turned negative, recording the first fall in 18 months while the RBA kept rates on hold after confirming inflation is high and demand will need to slow.

“The AUD remained strong ending the month at 96.6¢ (+1¢).

“The key issue for investors remains the trade-off between risks to corporate earnings in light of a rapidly deteriorating domestic economic outlook and increasing inflation risks; versus increasingly attractive valuations for equities.

“We continue to favour defensive sectors over domestic leverage heading into the key August reporting period, particularly given the increasing uncertainty in the domestic earnings outlook over the next 6 months. 

“The potential for the USD to find support as sentiment around credit availability improves, suggests stocks with offshore earnings could outperform during FY09.”

 


In London the FTSE 100 index closed on Friday at its lowest level since November 2005 as it threatened to join indices in Asia, the US and Europe among the bears.

The UK index has fallen 19.6% from its peak in October, leaving it just short of the 20% fall from a recent high that defines a bear market. (It dipped into the bear’s den briefly, before a small recovery.)

Friday’s 1.2% fall in London though capped a miserable week for shares around the globe: earnings are under pressure, especially in retailing; the credit crunch hasn’t gone away and continues to devour housing; oil is the big imponderable and that is making inflation more dangerous than it has been for 20-30 years.

According to figures in the weekend media in London the retail investors have deserted European markets in recent months, with $A65 billion of shares sold in the first five months of this year (that was after $A70 billion was sold off in the last five months of 2007).

The Dow joined the FTSE Eurofirst 300, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index in bear territory.

National indices fell in all 18 western European markets. Germany’s Dax Index fell 2.3% and France’s CAC 40 3%. The FTSE 100 lost 2.1% over the week.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down for a loss overall for a fourth successive week that has seen the index shed more than 12% in that time.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.7% in European trading.

The MSCI World Index had its fifth weekly drop. Bloomberg reckons that more than $US11 trillion has been cut from the value of global sharemarkets so far in 2008.

Credit crunch related losses from subprime failures and dodgy securities, write-downs, bonds, corporate deals and other high leverage products are estimated to have topped $US400 billion so far, but the surging oil price, high food costs, slowing economies and accelerating inflation have combined to cut market values in every corner of the world.

 


Asian shares fell for the fourth week in a row with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average posting its longest losing streak in 54 years. (And co-incidentally, General Motors’ share price hit a 54 year low last week as well!)

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.1% last week and Tokyo’s Nikkei fell 2.3% last week, the 12 straight days of losses is the longest losing streak since 1954.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 16% so far this year.

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Austock Still Buying MIG After Asset Tour

Posted on 30 June 2008 by Alex

Since the onset of the credit crisis last year the “Macquarie model” has come under question as to its sustainability when economic and market conditions are far less favourable and the market’s scepticism has filtered through to not only the share prices of Macquarie and its satellites but that of most infrastructure stocks on the market.

What hasn’t changed is the positive view of brokers covering a number of these stocks, with Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) a prime example. The FNArena database shows seven brokers giving the stock a Buy rating, against just two Holds and one Avoid recommendation.

Value is apparently on offer as well as the average price target according to the database is $3.77, which compares to a current share price of closer to $2.30, while the stock is forecast to return a yield of a little over 9.0% in coming years.

With such an apparent discrepancy between the current share price and its then target of $3.80 broker Austock Securities undertook a global tour of the group’s assets to ascertain whether or not its positive view on the stock was well deserved, coming away with the conclusion this was indeed the case.

Following the tour the broker has retained its Buy recommendation, though it has factored in some impact from slower economic growth in both the US and UK and cut its price target on the shares to $3.50 from its previous $3.80.

In terms of the group’s assets the broker sees the 407 toll road in Toronto as the key given it offers a 108km highway through a highly congested area where there is ongoing population growth and urban sprawl to drive demand, while the group gets the benefit of falling real costs and some flexibility in terms of setting the road’s tolls.

The APRR in France also scored good marks from the broker’s analysis given it offers growth and cost cutting opportunities despite being a mature asset, while also delivering some taxation benefits. As well, the tour resulted in the broker making minor increases to its traffic forecasts for the asset.

On the flip side the broker has lowered its estimates for the M6 toll in the UK as it notes motorists there are fighting against any real increases in the tolls being charged. As well, Austock sees scope for increased competition as other roads in the area are upgraded, which supports the decision to cut traffic growth forecasts.

The broker is not alone in making such a move, as earlier this month Citi lowered its rating on the stock to Hold from Buy and its price target to $2.98 from $3.14 to reflect lower traffic volumes after Macquarie similarly trimmed its earnings estimates through to FY10.

Rising real tolls on both the Chicago Skyway and the Indiana Toll Road are not the problem but in Austock’s view both are located in weak growth corridors and US drivers are struggling with higher fuel costs, especially as the increases are significant in percentage terms coming off such a low base.

As a result Austock expects both roads will struggle in the shorter-term, particularly as competing roads are being upgraded at the same time. For the South Bay Expressway the biggest issue is expected to be enforcing the collection of electronic tolls as in terms of location, growth outlook and the setting of tolls the road appears a good longer-term asset in the broker’s view.

Even at the revised price target of $3.50 the stock promises an internal rate of return of a little more than 13%, which in the broker’s view supports a Buy rating. Having said that the broker prefers Transurban ((TCL)) at present given at current levels the latter is forecast to generate an internal rate of return of about 16.5%.

Shares in Macquarie Infrastructure today are slightly higher and as at 1.35pm the stock was up 6c at $2.31, which compares to a trading range over the past year of $2.16 to $3.95.

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Midday Market Roundup 30/06/08

Posted on 30 June 2008 by Alex

Midday Market Roundup 30/06/08
June 30 2008 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)

 

The market is up 36. Resources are up 2.2% following the strong moves in the UK and the US. Financials are down 0.3% but being held up by BNB and MQG with good news on the banks’ waiver of BNB’s debt trigger clause.

 

Dow down 107. Up 32 at best. Down 155 at worst. SFE Futures down 4. Dow down 14% for the year. Crude up 45% this year. Resources up. Gold up $16. Financials down the most – fell 1.3% - only insurance brokers up 1.9% in the sector. Financials down 6.5% for the week. Merrills down 1% - reported to be about to post more write downs – may sell BlackRock. Consumer confidence survey at 56.4% - lowest for the year. Energy up. Tech majors down. Home builders down. Saudi’s embarking on what they are calling the single largest expansion of oil production capacity in history – will spend $10bn to pump 1.2m barrels per day from the Khurais field by next June. 

  • Both BHP and RIO up in ADR form on Friday, 2.22% and 0.88% respectively. BHP up 93c to 4383c. RIO up 384c to 13588c.
  • Metals mostly up on Friday – Copper up 1%, both Nickel and Aluminium up 0.7%, and Zinc down 3.1%. Zinifex flat at 820c.
  • Oil price up 78c to $139.68 after Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah say he was considering the possibility of cutting output in response to a US threat to sue OPEC members. Woodside up 84c to 6813c.
  • Gold up $16.20 to $931.30. Newcrest up 144c to 3033c.
  • US Bonds up with the 10 year yield down to 3.96%.

 

Lots of weekend press about what a terrible year its been for the stockmarket. The ASX 200 is down 16.54% so far this financial year and down 23.31% (or $400bn) from the peak on November 1st. The main issues for the year have included $400bn of sub-prime and credit market related losses, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the securities lending debacles (OPES, Lift, Tricom and Chimera), a record oil price, higher mortgage rates, a strong A$, short selling, 70% of IPOs underwater (RAMS down 97%), the collapse of MFS, ABC Learning, Centro, City Pacific, and Babcock & Brown and its satellites, a 35% fall in the foundation sector of Australian long term investments – the banks – and some aggressive tax loss selling in the last month. 

 

  • Managed funds will report their worst returns in 20 years.
  • A$ close to all time highs.
  • The Dow Jones is now below the peak hit in 2000, in other words it has gone nowhere in eight years whilst the Australian market is up 69%.

 

Babcock & Brown (BNB) up 12% in early trading on the back of the announcement that its lenders have dropped the market cap trigger clause on its debt facility and that BNB would prepay $400m of its debt using proceeds from recent asset sales – they have also agreed an increase in the rate on their debt facility by 50 basis points which will drop on the re-establishment of their BBB credit rating. Phil Green (CEO) says “The decision by the banks underscores the strength of our business and the banks commitment to Babcock & Brown”. Macquarie follows BNB up 2.4%. The whole Babcock stable having a better day with BBP up 7% and BBI up 4.4%.

 

  • APN News & Media (APN) said sales up 2% on-year to June 30 but 1H earnings to remain unchanged. Said net profit before one-offs would be “broadly in line with the same period last year.” APN down 1c to 300c.
  • Flinders Mines (FMS) in a trading halt pending “Further scientific clarification work to be carried out on recent results”. This is the company that recently announced that RC drilling at Hamersley would commence in the third week of June on five iron or targets “proximal” to the known inferred resources of Fortescue Metals.
  • Coal seam gas stocks Molopo and Metgasco both up 7% on no announcements.
  • Gold stocks having another good day on the back of a $16 jump in the gold price. Newcrest up another 6% on the research this morning post its announcement on Friday securing alternative gas supplies (at higher costs). NCM up 160c to 3049c.
  • Macarthur Coal (MCC) said ArcelorMittal has increased its shareholding from 14.9% to 19.9% through buying a 5% stake from Talbot Group Holdings - $20.00 per share. MCC down 30c to 1770c.
  • Iluka (ILU) announced it will restart its Western Australia operations having secured an alternative gas supply – diesel LPG. Apache to resume two-thirds production by Aug and full production by Dec. ILU down 3c to 468c.
  • Perpetual (PPT) will sell its managed infrastructure funds to investment and broking firm Wilson HTM Investment Group (WIG). PPT up 26c to 4430c.
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL) expands its business into the US by buying Clinical Laboratories in Hawaii and associated pathology business for $121m. SHL up 4c to 1459c.
  • Beach Petroleum (BPT) records increased production from its Cooper-Eromanga basin project. Also expects significant Queensland Coal Seam Gas growth. BPT up 4 c to 136c.
  • Ausenco (AAX) announced its Sandwell business had started a $12m contract for Porto Brasil’s eleven birth multiproduct port. AAX up 19c to 1549c.

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