ARA, dbs maintain BUY with target price $0.89($0.6) EPS for FY09/10 raised
by 1% and 3.2%
-Growing its AUM. ARA Asset Management Ltd (ARA) announced its appointment
as asset manager and convention and exhibition services provider for
Harmony Fund” post the fund’s purchase of Suntec Singapore International
Convention & Exhibition Centre for S$235m. One of ARA’s managed reit ?
Suntec REIT, is a 20% stakeholder in this fund.
-A strategic acquisition. We view this transaction as a strategic move for
ARA as it will control both the convention centre and as manger of Suntec
REIT - the adjacent office and retail mall. This will give ARA the free
role in realizing the full potential of one of Singapore’s iconic asset
amidst the re-making of downtown Marina Bay area with the upcoming Marina
Bay Sands Resort.
-Growing EPS by 10% in FY10. ARA is expected to earn management fees as
asset manager & service provider for the fund, we project these fees to
increase EPS in FY09 and FY10 to 6.6 Scts and 6.9 Scts respectively.
-Maintain BUY, TP S$0.89. We have revised our valuation metrics to sum of
the parts (SOTP) valuation, which is likely to reflect fully its strategic
equity stakes in Suntec REIT and AmFirst REIT. Our SOTP valuation of S$0.89
offers 31% upside.
ASCENDAS REIT, cimb maintain NEUTRAL with target price $1.70($1.68)
- Meeting expectations in the first quarter. A-REIT’s 1Q10 results met
consensus and our expectations. Net property income of S$80.7m (+15.8% yoy)
and distributable income of S$61.0m (+17.9% yoy) was reported, with growth
attributed mainly to an enlarged portfolio base of 89 properties vs 86
properties one year ago. DPU declined 7% yoy to 3.62cts, due to increased
number of units after its rights issue. DPU for the first quarter forms 28%
of our forecast of 12.8cts for FY10.
- Occupancy down marginally, reversions holding up. Portfolio occupancy as
at Jun 09 was down marginally to 97.1% (-0.7%pts qoq). This was mainly
attributed to a decline in the occupancy rate for its multi-tenanted
properties which came down to 94.0% (-1.3%pts). A-REIT’s Business and
Science Park segment and Hi-Tech segment continued to see positive
reversions, although at a slower pace, as rents of expiring leases remain
significantly below market rental rates.
- Maintain Neutral at raised target price of S$1.70 (from S$1.68). We
reduce our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our
declining house forecasts in recent months. Our discount rate is
correspondingly reduced to 8.4%, down from 8.5% earlier. There are no
changes to our estimates. Due to the uncertain outlook of industrial
indicators, we expect occupancy levels to continue to weaken. However, we
expect increased contributions of AREIT’s built-to-suit development
projects completing over FY10 and built-in rental growth for its leaseback
arrangements to moderate the decline in revenue.
ASCOTT TRUST, cimb maintain NEUTRAL with target price $0.88($0.79)
- In line. 2Q09 distributable income of S$11m (-17% yoy) and DPU of 1.79cts
(-18% yoy) were in line with Street and our expectations, forming 25% of
our full-year estimate. 1H09 DPU of 3.56cts forms 49% of our full-year
forecast. Gross profit of S$20.8m fell 11% yoy but improved 5% qoq.
Although demand for serviced residences slowed globally yoy, ART’s qoq
performance was boosted by contributions from Somerset St Georges Terrace
and Somerset Westlake which were acquired after 2Q08, and improved gross
profit margins (+1.3% pts qoq).
- REVPAU of S$119 was down 17% yoy. With the exception of flat REVPAU in
the Philippines (+1%), REVPAU in all other countries fell Singapore (-39%),
China (- 19%), Vietnam (-12%). Yoy, portfolio REVPAU of S$119 was down 17%.
- Asset value down S$60.6m to S$1.55bn; 100% cash distribution. As at 30
Jun 09, HVS International revalued ART’s portfolio at S$1.55bn, (-1.8% from
Dec 08 valuation). After revaluation, NAV is now at S$1.36 and price to
book value is 0.65x. There has been more aggressive marketing of ART’s
properties, particularly for longer stays of more than one month and it
expects fruits by 2H09. REVPAU is expected to improve moderately by 5-10%.
ART says it will be maintaining its 100% cash distribution policy.
- Maintain Neutral, target price raised to S$0.88 (from S$0.79). We reduce
our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our declining
house forecasts in recent months. Our discount rate is correspondingly
reduced to 9.1%, down from 10.3% earlier. There are no changes to our
estimates. After the recent price surge, we believe ART is fully valued.
Maintain Neutral.
CAMBRIDGE TRUST, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $0.54($0.52)
- DPU above expectation. 2Q09 results are in line with consensus forecast
but 6% above our expectation mainly due to amortised loan transaction costs
that were added back into distributable income. Distribution of S$10.7m
(-13.8% yoy) and DPU of 1.35cts (-13.8% yoy) form 31% of our FY09
forecasts. 1H09 DPU of 2.64cts represents 60% of our full-year forecast.
The yoy decrease in distribution can be traced to higher management fees
paid in cash and higher borrowing costs. Net property income of S$16m was
flat (-0.3% qoq), while portfolio occupancy was stable at 99.5% (+0.3% pt
qoq) as at Jun 09.
- Private placement of S$28m diluted DPU by 8%. On 27 Jul, management
announced a private placement of 71.1m units to raise gross proceeds of
S$28m. This represented 9% of the units in issue as at 31 Dec 08. Assuming
no other changes, DPU would be diluted by 8%. About 23% of the privately
placed units will go to its sponsors NAB (19%) and Oxley (4%). Units issued
to NAB and Oxley will be priced at S$ 0.399/unit, based on the adjusted
volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of units for the full market day on 24
Jul 09. Units issued to other investors will be priced at S$0.392, a 5%
discount to VWAP.
- Maintain Outperform; higher target price of S$0.5 (from S$0.52). We
reduce our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our
declining house forecasts. Our discount rate is correspondingly reduced to
9.1%, down from 9.4% earlier. There are no changes to our estimates. Our
target price rises in tandem to S$0.54 (from S$0.52), still based on
DDM-valuation. We maintain our Outperform rating given its share-price
upside potential and forward yields of 12%.
CCT, cimb remains UNDERPERFORM with target price $0.83(from $0.76)
- In line. 2Q09 results were in line with Street and our expectations. Net
property income of S$73.3m was up 42% yoy and 5% qoq, aided by strong
rental reversions and improved operating margins. Distributable income for
2Q09 was up 33% yoy. However, DPU of 1.7cts (24% of our full-year forecast)
declined 34% yoy due to a bigger unit base after its rights issue. 1H09 DPU
of 3.33cts was in line with expectations, forming 47% of our full-year
estimate.
- Reversions remained 45% above the last signed. Reversions for office
rents were 45% above previous rental levels. Average monthly passing rents
for the portfolio rose 5% qoq to S$8.14psf from S$7.73psf in 1Q09. CCT’s
portfolio occupancy stood at 96.2% (-0.5%pts qoq).
- Maintain Underperform, target price raised to S$0.83 (from S$0.76). We
reduce our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our
declining house forecasts in recent months. Our discount rate is
correspondingly reduced to 8.4%, down from 8.5% earlier. There are no
changes to our estimates. We expect occupancy to continue to weaken in the
year, weighed down by weak demand and strong upcoming supply. Over 2010-11,
we expect reversions to turn negative for CCT as rents for expiring leases
in two of its major buildings Six Battery Road and Raffles City are
significantly higher than current market rents (S$7-8psf), and anticipated
future rents (S$5-6psf). Maintain Underperform rating as catalysts in the
medium term are still lacking.
CDL TRUSTS, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $1.41($0.99)
- DPU in line. 2Q09 results were in line with our expectations but exceeded
consensus. Payout to unitholders is 90%, at S$15.8m. This translates to a
DPU of 1.89cts, or 21% of our full-year forecast. 1H09 DPU amounts to
3.86cts, or 49% of our full-year forecast, which assumes a 90% payout.
Actual DPU available for distribution based on a 100% payout for 1H09 is
4.25cts, 54% of our FY09 forecast.
- Room rates down 30% yoy; occupancy down 12% pts yoy. CDLHT’s Singapore
portfolio occupancy was 75.5% (-12% pts yoy), recovering moderately (+1%)
from the last quarter. This was despite more difficult operating conditions
with cancellations and meetings held back due to H1N1. Average room rate
for the Singapore portfolio was down to S$178 (-30% yoy). However, this
fall is measured against 2Q08, CDLHT’s strongest quarter since its listing.
- More surprises in the bag. Management revealed that July’s occupancy had
risen above 80% in Singapore, in line with industry performance. This is a
positive start to 2H09. We are expecting more events such as the F1 night
race, the continuance of the APEC Conference 2009 till November, and the
return of bookings for conferences and meetings postponed by H1N1. We
expect more upside surprises from 1) possibly reduced interest cost as
loans could be refinanced at lower margins; 2) a return of payout to 100%
as early as 2H09 if conditions continue to improve; and 3) room rates
priced on a daily basis.
- Maintain Outperform; DDM-based target price raised to S$1.41 (from
S$0.99). CDLHT’s performance has met our above-consensus estimates despite
difficult conditions. We are positive that it is out of the woods. Hence,
we revise our assumptions for 1) full-year average occupancy to 75-85%
(from 70-80%); and 2) average room rate up by 15% in 2010, from +3%. We
maintain our 90% payout assumption. Our DPU forecasts increase by 4-11%
following the changes in our assumptions. Our target price rises
accordingly to S$1.41 (discount rate 9.1%), offering 19% potential price
upside and forward yields of 7%. We believe CDLHT will be one of the key
beneficiaries of integrated resorts opening in 2010.
CDL TRUSTS, jpm upgrade to OVERWEIGHT from UNDERWEIGHT with target price
$1.80($0.55)
-We upgrade CDREIT to Overweight as we believe that the trust is currently
at the bottom of its earnings cycle. With corporate and leisure travels to
pick up potentially, RevPAR for the hotels under CDREIT’s portfolio should
stabilize with earnings outlook likely to improve. We have raised our DPU
estimates for FY10/FY11 by 21%/34% to reflect our more optimistic outlook
on RevPAR. The opening of the 2 Integrated Resorts (IR) in 1Q10 should also
provide an extra catalyst for the share price performance.
- Supply could be well absorbed with 11.2mil annual visitor arrival.
Although 7,248 rooms are scheduled to come onstream in 2010 and onwards,
representing 23% of the current stock, the hotel industry could achieve 80%
occupancy rate on our estimates if annual visitor arrivals hits
11.2million. We believe that a 10% increase from the 2008 level (or a 6%
increase from 2007 level) is not unachievable especially with the various
initiatives by the government and private sectors to target 17 million
visitor arrivals by 2015.
-Valuation highly sensitive due to operating leverage. As a result of high
operating leverage, the trust’s valuation is highly sensitive to our RevPAR
assumptions. We estimate that every 10% change in RevPAR assumption for
five Singapore hotels would affect our DPU estimates by 12% and our
valuation by 10%.
- We raise our Jun-10 price target to S$1.80/unit, based on our DDM model.
The increase is a result of higher earnings estimates, higher longterm
growth rate, lower discount rate and rolling forward out timeframe. Key
risks to our rating and price target include a continuous declining trend
in RevPAR, lower-than-expected visitor arrivals or any potential events
that could adversely affect both corporate and leisure travels.
CDL TRUSTS, ssb maintain SELL with target price $0.8($0.48)
- Results slightly ahead ? For 2Q09, distributable DPU was 2.07 cents, down
5% qoq and 32% yoy due to weaker operating performance. Including 1Q09 DPU
of 2.18cents, 1H09 DPU was 4.25cents. However, due to the cut in payout
ratio, actual 1H09 DPU was 3.86cents. The results appear ahead of both
consensus and our estimate of 7cents and our estimates of 6 cents.
- RevPar decline worsen in 2Q09 ? Compared 2Q08, avg occupancy in 2Q09 for
its portfolio of Singapore hotels fell from 87.1% to 75.5% while ARR fell
30.2% to S$178, translating to RevPar decline of 39.6% vs the decline of
27.7% in 1Q09. Novotel Clarke continues to be the best performer with
revenue falling just 24% yoy and Grand Copthorne Waterfront the worst,
falling 39%.
- Encouraging signs that worst of decline might be over ? Although overall
occupancy for Singapore hotels improved to 76% in June from 69% in May,
average room rate continues to fall to S$179 vs S$184 previously, thus
industry wide RevPar rose 6% compared to 1% during the corresponding period
last year. The MoM RevPar decline for May-09 was also lower at 4% vs 6% in
08.
- TP and DPU raised, Sell maintained ? We have raised our FY09 to reflect
the better than expected performance at Novotel and the lower than expected
interest expense. We have also raised our estimates for FY10 and beyond
given the economic outlook is better than what was previously expected. Our
TP is raised to $0.80, from S$0.48 as a result. We, however, remain
cautious on stock as it is already pricing in a V-shaped recovery in RevPar
while we think it is ahead of its fundamentals. We estimate hotel RevPar
has to increase 30% and payout at 100% to justify current price. New High
Risk based on quant.
DBS, mac downgrade to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM with target price $13.64
($14.09) EPS for FY 09/10 raised by 11% and lowered by 15%
-DBS’ Group Holdings’ share price rose 65%year-to-date, outperforming its
peers. Over the past month, it has risen by 18%, giving it the second-best
performance among its peers. Given that it has reached our target price
(adjusted to S$13.64 from S$14.09), we are downgrading our recommendation
to Neutral from Outperform.
-DBS’ share price has risen by 65% year to date, outperforming its peers.
Over the past month, it rose 18%, the second-best performance among peers.
We believe the strong share price movement has largely reflected the
receding fears of NPLs as well as potential for better non-interest income.
However, we think the earnings outlook remains uncertain and is likely to
be impacted by higher NPLs.
- The group is expected to report its 2Q09 results on 7 August 2009. We
estimate a net profit of S$456.7m, 5.5% higher QoQ but 30% lower YoY. Key
areas of potential surprise are likely to lie with lower loan loss
provisions and higher non-interest income.
- FY10 earnings are expected to see muted underlying profitability given
our view that loan growth could remain weak amid lacklustre margins. We
also anticipate NPLs peaking in FY10, together with loan loss provisions,
given the lagged impact of the economic downturn on NPLs.
-We have raised our net profit forecast for FY09 by 11% but lowered it for
FY10 by 15%, largely on the changes in our loan loss provision and
noninterest income assumptions.
FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $1.21
($1.12)
- Met expectations. 3Q09 results are in line with Street and our
expectations. DPU grew 3.2% yoy to 1.94cts, to make up 27% of our full-year
forecast. Distribution income (+4.1% yoy) and net property income (+4.4%)
grew despite disruptions from enhancement work at Northpoint, boosted by
higher contributions from Causeway Point and Anchorpoint. Portfolio
occupancy was stable at 93.2% (-0.2% qoq) even though Northpoint’s
occupancy was affected by enhancement work. Renewals were on track and
reversions were 14% above preceding rates.
- Northpoint and other leasing updates. Enhancement work on Northpoint is
expected to end shortly. Physical occupancy was 75% as at end-Jun 09.
However, 97% of the net lettable area has been leased, including space
being negotiated with tenants (talks in advanced stage). Management
estimates that enhancement will increase Northpoint’s average rents by 20%
(to S$13.20 psf) and full-year net property income by 30% (to S$18m).
Additionally, 98% of gross rental income for FY09 has been locked in.
- Maintain Outperform and raised target price of S$1.21 (from S$1.12). We
reduce our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our
declining house forecasts in recent months. Our discount rate is
correspondingly reduced to 8.1%, down from 9.2% earlier. There are no
changes to our estimates. Our target price is raised accordingly to $S1.21
still based on DDM valuation. FCT’s progress in pre-leasing renewals,
positive reversions and stable occupancy reaffirm our belief that suburban
retail is stable despite the downturn. Maintain Outperform.
GENTING SP, cimb upgrade to TRADING BUY from UNDERPERFORM with target price
$1.05($0.51)
- Turning bullish on RWS. Having seen the construction progress at both IRs
during our recent visit, we are impressed by the speed of work at Resorts
World at Sentosa (RWS). We believe that the odds are bigger now for RWS to
open ahead of its rival. Our earlier estimates are overly conservative,
given the IR’s potential for opening before the year is out.
- Significant upgrade to FY09-11 EPS estimates. We have narrowed our FY09
loss assumption by 24% as we expect RWS to incur pre-operating costs of
S$300m instead of S$450m before. For FY10, given the sizeable upgrade in
RWS’s EBITDA estimates, we now expect Genting Singapore (GS) to turn around
to a S$324m profit instead of a S$8m loss. Our FY11 our core earnings
estimates have been raised by 42% to reflect our more optimistic outlook
for RWS.
- Upgrade to TRADING BUY from Underperform. We expect strong newsflows from
RWS in the coming months as it gears up for its maiden opening. We see
strong rerating catalysts from 1) the award of its casino licence, sometime
in 4Q09; and 2) the quick pace of construction which could lead to a
pre-2010 opening. These reasons, together with our preference for
higher-beta plays, lead us to upgrade the stock from Underperform to
TRADING BUY. Our sum-of-the-parts target price has been raised from S$0.51
to S$1.05 after the 44% uptick in RWS’s 2011 EBITDA and pegging a higher
16x EBITDA multiple (13x previously) to value RWS, in line with the recent
re-rating in global gaming stocks.
GREAT EASTERN by cl
- Great Eastern (GE SP - S$14.44 ? N-R) has made an offer to redeem their
GreatLink Choice (GLC) products from policy holders.
- Recall GLC was an insurance product that was wrapped around a CDO. Most
were sold to retail investors vs. private banking clients in the Lehman
minibond saga.
- Management is offering to redeem this product at the original purchase
price of S$1.00 per unit. Given these products are almost worthless expect
full redemption.
- GE sold S$594m of these products and upon redemption Management expects a
fair value of ~S$344m for the underlying CDOs implying a S$250 write-down
in 3Q09.
- This is 92% of GE FY08 core-profits.
- More importantly this will result in a ~S$218m write-down for OCBC (OCBC
SP - S$7.75 - SELL) in 3Q09 upon consolidation; 18% of FY09 earnings.
- Along with OCBC’s higher risk loan book, we are SELLers ahead of results
(out 03 August 2009, PM).
- Great Eastern’s 2Q09 earnings were up 522% YoY to S$97.7m.
- This was primarily driven off a S$74m profit in the life insurance
nonparticipating fund vs. a loss S$11m a year ago.
- This was driven off falling corporate bond yields and a strong equity
market in 2Q09; expect to see similar improvements in bank trading income
as well.
- Total 1H09 insurance income at S$131m is ~60% of our OCBC FY09 insurance
income expectations. Positive for OCBC 2Q09 results.
- However, sustainability here is questionable given the non-participating
fund’s gearing towards equities.
- 2Q09 life assurance profits were up 4x YoY, which, apart from the
nonparticipating fund, was underpinned by the investment-linked fund (+15%
YoY).
- Profits from the shareholders’ investment fund rose 2x YoY from equity
sales.
- Volatility in investment markets will impact insurance profitability
going forward, Management warns.
- Fee income fell 26% YoY on lower management fees from Lion Capital (AUM
here has contracted 21% YoY).
- Gross premiums fell 37% YoY in 2Q09 continuing the negative growth
momentum from 1Q09.
GREAT EASTERN, csfb downgrade to UNDERPERFORM with target price $12.84
- Great Eastern’s 1H09 net profit grew 451% YoY to S$335 mn. However,
excluding a non-recurring insurance profit of S$210 mn (mainly arising from
implementation of new risk-based regulatory capital framework in Malaysia),
1H09 core net profit of S$168 mn (up 169% YoY) is 55% of our full-year
estimate. Growth in profit is mainly due to the improvement in investment
conditions, which saw appreciation in equity and debt securities held.
- 1H09 weighted new business premiums declined 28% YoY, due largely to a
70% YoY drop in single premium sales in Singapore.
- GE’s capital adequacy ratios in both Singapore and Malaysia exceed 200%.
This is well above the minimum regulatory ratio of 120% for Singapore and
130% for Malaysia.
- One-time redemption offer for CDO products could result in a S$250 mn
provision in 3Q09.
- Given that the stock price has risen beyond our target price (now implies
11% downside), we downgrade the stock to an UNDERPERFORM. GE trades at
P/EMBV of 1.2x.
GREAT EASTERN, ssb maintain BUY with target price $12.20
- 1H09 estd. core profit S$137m ? Ex-one time items, GEH made an estimated
2Q09 core profit of S$95m (1Q09 core S$42m net of S$195m one-time gains)
vs. our FY09 forecast S$330m. New business premiums continued to be weak,
but non-par profits were lifted by improving equity and debt markets, and
BV/S rose to S$7.06 (Mar S$6.78). The qoq result is positive for OCBC’s
2Q09 result (reports 3 Aug), but GEH’s redemption offer on its GreatLink
Choice product will need an estimated S$250m pre-tax provision to be taken
in 3Q09 results.
-2Q09 reported profit S$98m, (1Q09, S$237m, 4Q08 76.5m) ? Premiums rose
6%qoq to S$1,249m. Core insurance profit S$128m (1Q S$65m), comprising par
fund profit S$27m, non-par profit S$77m, ILP profit S$23m. 2Q one-time loss
of S$3m (1Q profit S$213m). Interim DPS for 1H09 S$0.05/share
- GreatLink Choice redemption offer? GEH is making a one-time redemption
offer to policyholders of this product, whose market value remains at a
steep discount to par due to its underlying CDO investments. The 5 tranches
of this product had invested premiums of S$594m, a Jun-09 NAV of S$217m,
and coupons paid of S$48m. Making some assumptions on redemption, GEH will
make an estimated S$250m provision to be reflected in its 3Q09 results.
- Outlook ? The continued recovery of equity markets may lift performance
for the rest of 2009, but we suspect lower new business premiums
(especially on single premiums) could remain the trend for some time. Mgmt
have previously indicated that there would be greater reliance on higher
margin but lower volume regular premium sales in the near term.
MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST, cimb maintain NEUTRAL with target price $0.68
($0.62)
- In line. Distribution income of S$28.7m (+27%) and DPU of 1.48cts (-23%)
are in line with Street and our expectations (27% of full-year forecast).
DPU contracted 22.6% yoy due to additional units from a rights issue in Aug
08, while qoq growth was marginal at 0.7%. 1H09 DPU of 2.95cts forms 53% of
our full-year forecast. Revenue in 2Q09 slipped 2.4% qoq mostly due to a
depreciation of the HK$ and ¥ against the S$. The impact of this on net
property income (-1.2% qoq) was mitigated by reduced property expenses
(-11% qoq) while the effect on distributable income was cushioned by the
hedging of income streams from Hong Kong and Japan.
- Occupancy stable at 98.3%; renewals on track. Portfolio occupancy
improved 0.3% pt to 98.3% in Jun 09. About 65% of the leases expiring in
2009 were successfully renewed in 2Q09. Average rental reversion rate was
flat. Tenant arrears remained small at 1% of annualised gross revenue.
- Maintain Neutral, target price raised to S$0.68 (from S$0.62). We reduce
our risk-free rates applied across our coverage, in line with our declining
house forecasts in recent months. Our discount rate is correspondingly
reduced to 8.6%, down from 9.4% earlier. There are no changes to our
estimates. Our DDM-derived target price rises accordingly to S$0.68, from
S$0.62. Although the pressure to maintain occupancy and rents remains, we
are encouraged by its relatively high tenant retention rate of 80% and
success in securing refinancing at lower interest rates. We believe MLT
will be able attain our forecast distribution for FY09.
OCBC, cimb maintain OUTPERFORM with target price $7.79
-Offer to redeem CDO-linked products an immediate, one-off negative. Great
Eastern (GEH) announced that it is making a one-time redemption offer to
its GreatLink Choice (GLC) policyholders. The offer will be open for
acceptance from 3rd August to 28th August 2009. During the offer period,
GEH will redeem at par, less the total annual payouts received to-date.
Total value of investment products involved is S$594m. Following the
redemption offer, GEH will take delivery of the underlying CDO instruments
and will account for the fair value of these instruments at the close of
the offer period. The financial impact to GEH is conservatively estimated
at S$250m in 3Q09, the financial impact for OCBC is S$218m, taken in 3Q09.
-What is GLC? GLC is a series of investment-linked insurance products with
the underlying investments in CDO instruments. GLC aims to provide
investors with enhanced fixed annual returns and a return of the principal
amount on maturity. Insurance coverage is provided over the duration of the
investment. Both the annual payouts and principal repayment on maturity are
not guaranteed. The products were rated AA/AA- by S&P at inception, with
features such as 1) a built-in loss protection level allowing for 16-23
credit events for each fund; 2) reference entities diversified across
various industries; 3) no single reference entity >1.5% of overall
exposure.
-Maintain S$7.79 target price and Outperform rating for now, pending
results. Our target price and recommendation is unchanged for now. This
negative news might not be just a negative catalyst for OCBC’s share price;
it serves as a negative for the entire sector. Banks have previously
settled with vulnerable investors regarding the sale of Lehman-related
products. The MAS has also slapped bans between 6-24 months on the sale of
third-party structured notes already. OCBC’s actions put pressure on the
other banks. We expect the banking stocks to see a bout of profit-taking in
the near-term.
OCBC, uob maintain BUY with target price $8.12
-The decision to redeem GLC will result in negative hit of about S$218m in
OCBC’s 3Q09 results. Do not expect a sell-off as it is an one-off gesture
of goodwill to pacify Great Eastern’s loyal policyholders.
-OCBC’s insurance subsidiary, Great Eastern, will make a one-time
redemption offer to policyholders for investment in GreatLink Choice (GLC),
a series of investment-linked products with underlying investments in
collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). The product has a built-in loss
protection and is diversified across multiple industries and geographical
regions. Unfortunately, market values for GLC products are at steep
discounts to par (38.9-80.8% discount) due to credit events triggered by
the global financial crisis.
-Great Eastern will redeem 594m GLC units at $1.00 each. GLC policyholders
taking up the offer will receive a refund based on their original
investment amounts less total payouts received to-date, and the insurance
coverage will cease. Great Eastern will take delivery of the underlying
CDOs and will account for the fair value of these instruments at the close
of the offer period.
-The financial hit will be incorporated in Great Eastern’s 3Q09 results and
is estimated at S$250m. The negative impact on OCBC 3Q09 results is
expected at around S$218m.
-Maintain BUY. Our target price of S$8.12 is based on a P/B of 1.58x
derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 11%, payout ratio 48%, required
return 8% and constant growth 4.5%).
SINGTEL, dbs downgrade to HOLD from BUY with target price $3.50($3.22)
-Good results from forex gains. We expect SingTel to report 1Q10F net
underlying earnings of S$980m (+13% yoy, +2% qoq) on 13th Aug, ahead of
consensus estimates of S$920m-S$930m. Last year, exchange rate losses
exacerbated SingTel’s earnings but FY10F should be a recovery year. Based
on quarterly results posted by Bharti and half yearly results posted by PT
Telkom, we estimate that mark-to-market gains from these two associates in
1Q10F to be about S$60m. Besides, associates from Pakistan and Bangladesh
may also report foreign exchange gains. In view of the forex gains and
better performance of Telkomsel, we raised SingTel FY10F earnings by 2%,
which are 4% ahead of consensus now.
-Trading above the regional valuations. At 8.7x EV/EBITDA, and 14.5x FY10F
PER, SingTel is trading above the regional EV/EBITDA of 5.5x and PER of
14.4x. Three key changes in our SOTP valuation are (i) DCF valuation of the
core business (Sing-Optus) are based on lower WACC of 8.5% instead of 9.5%
earlier, implying core FY10F PER of 14x vs 12x earlier. (ii) Telkomsel
target price at 15x PER rolled over to 2010 from 2009 earlier. (iii) Higher
target price for AIS.
-Potentially higher stake in Bharti? Aggressive network expansion plans of
new players such as Telenor and Sistema in the next 12 months may restrict
Bharti’s earnings growth to single-digit from next year onwards. As such,
acquiring more stake at 9x Bharti’s FY10F EV/EBITDA and 15.5x FY10F PER may
not be a significant catalyst for SingTel.
SMRT, amfraser maintain BUY with target price $2.11
- 1QFY10 net profit jumped 20% YoY to S$48.2mil on a surge in EBITDA
margins to 40% from 35% in 1QFY09, as SMRT benefitted from lower oil
prices. In particular, bus and taxi operations returned to the black with
operating profits of $1.2mil and $1.1mil respectively. With a 1%-point cut
in corporate tax, a lower effective tax rate of 15% (vs 16.8% in 1Q09) also
helped boost bottomline.
- Despite a slow economy and the impact from the H1N1 pandemic, train
ridership was more resilient than bus ridership. MRT ridership rose 3% YoY
to 128 million in 1Q10 while that for LRT rose 2% to four million. However
train revenues were flat YoY - S$115.6mil for MRT and S$2.2mil for LRT -
due to the 4.6% cut in average fares effected from 1April 2009. The average
fare fell 2.9% YoY to 90.3 cts for MRT and 2.1% Yoy to 54.7 cts for LRT.
- On the other hand, bus ridership fell 1% YoY to 70.4 million. Coupled
with a larger 4.3% YoY drop in average fare, bus revenues fell 4% YoY to
S$49mil. Total fare businesses accounted for a combined 77% of total
operating revenues. Hence, total revenue grew a modest 3% YoY to $229mil.
- SMRT’s non-fare revenue was boosted by higher rental and
engineering/other services, which offset a 7% YoY fall in taxi revenues.
The latter was due to a smaller fleet size after the disposal of more than
300 old taxis in the previous quarter. In terms of the rental business,
another 23 units of shops were added which boosted lettable commercial
space by 6.7% to 27,879 sqm (+6.7% YoY) in 1Q10. Further to 28 refurbished
stations, another five are currently undergoing upgrading and this provides
further boost to rental income.
-Total Operating costs fell 1.3% YoY, due to lower diesel expenses. Energy
costs for fare business fell a hefty 21% YoY on the back of a 53% YoY
plunge in diesel costs for buses to S$7.5mil as crude oil prices ranged at
half its levels a year ago. This helped to offset a 16% rise in electricity
costs for trains, which saw an increase in consumption due to the opening
of Circle Line Stage 3. Other operating costs which comprise cost of diesel
sales to taxi hirers, fell 5% YoY. Together, these energy-related items
accounted for 33% of total costs in 1Q10.
- Staff costs made up 41% of costs. As SMRT added 246 to bring total
headcount to 6,474, staff costs rose 3% YoY to $69.4mil. We project
headcount to reach 6,828 for FY10 as SMRT continues to ramp up for the next
phases of CCL3. Repairs and maintenance jumped 14% YoY to $17.2mil as CCL
came onstream.
- Due to lower-than-expected growth in ridership in 1Q10, we moderate our
full year forecasts, even after factoring a pick up in the following
quarters on the back of an economic recovery. We project 9% growth in MRT
ridership and 6% growth in bus ridership in FY10. At the bottomline, we
lower net profit by 2% to $171.9mil in FY10 and 3% to $180.2mil in FY10.
- We maintain our Buy rating for SMRT which is trading at 20% discount to
Fair Value of $2.11. With the Land Transport Authority’s push towards
public transportation, we continue to like the fundamentals for SMRT. In
addition, SMRT is in the midst of negotiating a 49%-stake in Shenzhen ZONA
Transportation Group. This deal would mark SMRT’s first overseas foray in
public transport services and would lend further upside to the stock.
SMRT, cimb maintain NEUTRAL with target price $1.76($1.77)
-Above expectations. 1QFY10 net profit of S$48.2m (+19.6% yoy) was above
our and market consensus of S$40m. This was attributed to lower fuel costs,
lower average staff costs from the jobs credit scheme and lower other opex,
despite flat revenue of S$215.8m. The flat revenue was due mainly to fare
rebates and lower taxi rental income from a reduced fleet size. No dividend
was declared.
- Operating expenses. Operating expenses fell 1.3% yoy to S$171m on lower
energy costs (-21% yoy) and other expenses (-4.7% yoy). Within energy,
diesel costs fell 53% yoy to S$7.5m, while electricity costs rose 16% yoy
to S$16m due to higher consumption, despite 25% lower rates from 1 Apr 09
under the latest energy contract. Staff cost rose 3.3% yoy on higher
headcount (currently 6,474 staff, +13% yoy) for the opening of the Circle
Line, salaries and CPF contributions.
- Operational review. Revenue from all transport-related segments fell;
train and bus revenues fell on fare rebates despite posting ridership
growth of 3% yoy and 0.05% respectively. Average fares per trip fell
between 2-4%. However, group PAT margins improved to 22.3% from 18.7% a
year ago, thanks to good cost management. LRT, bus and taxi operations all
turned profitable, albeit just marginally. Rental growth (+12% yoy) was
buoyed by increased 7% yoy of rental space while rental rates were steady.
- Challenging outlook. Train and bus revenues are expected to be lower on
lower fares and higher transfer rebates. Advertising is also expected to
slow down in tandem with the slower economy. Outlook for taxis has improved
after trimming the fleet by 12% yoy. Overall operating costs should rise
with the opening of the Circle Line, repair and maintenance and higher
electricity expenses.
- Maintain Neutral. Despite the outperformance, we believe the remaining
quarters will be challenging. We fine-tune our FY10-12 forecasts by -0.3 to
1.4%. We maintain our WACC of 9.6%, which translates to a slightly lower
DCF-derived target price of S$1.76 (previously S$1.77), supported by a
dividend yield of about 4.5%.
SMRT, cl upgrade to BUY with target price $2.10 EPS for FY09/10 raised by
8.4% and 8.1%
-SMRT’s 1Q10 earnings came above CLSA’s ahead of Street expectations.
Core-income expanded 20% YoY on the back of rising train ridership and a
turnaround in taxi operations coupled with falling energy costs. We believe
tough macro conditions and a rail centric government transportation policy
are structural positives for SMRT’s rail business (which delivers 66% of
EBITDA). Together with resilient rental income, the Group offers a highly
defensible FY10 dividend yield of 5%. With our unchanged DCF-based target
price implying 24% upside, upgrade to BUY.
-Resilient trains. 1Q10 train ridership increased 3% YoY in-line with CLSA
forecasts, but as expected revenues were flat given the fare reduction
package that came online in April 2009. Train operating profits improved 5%
YoY on the back of higher maintenance fees (which contributed S$7.5m
additional revenue above normalised levels. Excluding this, 1Q10 earnings
would have been in-line). Ridership in the Circle Line in its first month’s
operations has been disappointing at ~30k passengers/ day; 30% below
expectations. While we see no material impact to overall Group ridership,
expect an improvement here as more stations come online. Hence we maintain
our 8% YoY ridership growth target for FY10.
-Weak buses, but taxi turnaround. Bus ridership continued to weaken falling
1% YoY and 2% QoQ. But the segment posted an operating profit of S$1.2m vs.
a loss of S$3.3m a year ago from lower fuel costs. But at just 4% of
EBITDA, not material. Taxis, too, saw a turnaround posting an S$1.1m
operating profit vs. a loss of S$1.3m a year ago from lower depreciation
charges given the smaller fleet. Recall the Group reduced the fleet by 12%
in 4Q09. Taxi hire-out rates are >90%, according to Management.
-Rental growth remains positive. 1Q10 rental revenues increased 12% YoY and
operating profits +21% YoY from higher rental yields (average rent up 8%
YoY). The Group has increased average lettable space by 4% YoY, which has
led to a marginal decline in occupancy from 99.3% in 4Q09 to 98.6%.
Management expects rentals to remain stable and we expect total lettable
space to rise by 14% YoY in FY10 as more stations are refurbished.
Advertising revenues while 4% lower YoY, saw an 8% improvement QoQ despite
tough macro conditions. We expect a 10% YoY contraction here in FY10, but
the risk is on the upside, we believe.
SMRT, csfb maintain UNDERPERFORM with target price $1.60
- SMRT delivered June-2009 quarter results in line with our estimates.
Revenue was flat, while earnings, up 20% YoY, were boosted by a one-off
S$7.5 mn in maintenance income receipts. Excluding this, 1Q10 met 24%/26%
of our full-year revenue/earnings estimates.
- While rentals have remained resilient and yields on taxis have improved
(on a 14% YoY reduction in fleet size), daily ridership on the new Circle
Line so far is a-third lower than that of the Land Transport Authority’s
and SMRT’s projections.
- We view the new appointment of SVP, Business Development (Europe and
China) as positive, given his previous track record at rival ComfortDelGro,
and thus reaffirming SMRT’s focus on overseas growth. Management, however,
articulated that the earnings impact from recently acquired Zona will
remain insignificant over next three to five years.
-We have kept our forecasts and DCF-based S$1.60 target price intact for
now, and continue to see SMRT’s valuations at 16x P/E as demanding relative
to its historical average of 14x, and the Singapore market. UNDERPERFORM
reiterated.
SMRT, db maintain BUY with target price $2.05
-Results were in line. SMRT posted a 3.3% YoY growth in revenue to S
$229.0m as the impact of the 4.6% fare reduction and lower hired-out taxi
fleet, partially offset by higher rental and fees from overseas. Earnings
grew by 19.6% YoY to S$48.2m on the back lower energy costs. We maintain
our earnings forecasts, 1Q10 earnings makes up 26.5% of our FY10E forecast.
-Train showing decent growth in profitability on lower costs. Train revenue
was flat at S$115.6m as the fare reduction offset the 5.0% YoY growth in
ridership. EBIT for the division grew by 8.0% YoY to S$36.7m due to higher
operating income partially offset by higher electricity costs. LRT revenue
was also flat at S$2.2m but managed to post a turnaround in EBIT due to
lower staff costs.
-Turnaround in Bus and taxi profitability. Bus revenue declined by 3.7% YoY
to S$49.0m on fare reduction and lower ridership (-1% YoY). However, the
bus division posted a turnaround in EBIT of $1.2m from a loss of S$3.5m due
to lower diesel costs. Taxi revenue declined by 6.6% YoY to S$17.7m due to
a lower holding fleet and posted a turnaround in EBIT of S$1.1m from a loss
of S$1.3m on lower operating expense as a result of a smaller holding
fleet.
-Circle Line (CCL) off to a weak start however impact is immaterial. Mgmt
said that the startup cost on CCL is not going to have a material impact on
the group in FY10E. Mgmt has managed to show cost synergies and was able to
contain staff costs despite a 12.9% YoY increase in headcount to 6,474 in
Jun09 mainly attributed to the opening of CCL. This was offset by the 8.5%
YoY decline in the average cost per staff. Outlook - mgmt expects the EBIT
for taxi to improve due to a smaller holding fleet. Rental revenue is
expected to be higher due to the redevelopment of five MRT stations.
SMRT, dbs maintain HOLD with target price $1.65
-1Q10 slightly ahead. SMRT’s 1Q10 net profit of S$48.2m (+20% yoy) was
slightly ahead of our expectations due to a higher nonfare operating income
(S$13.1m, +134% yoy). This arises from receipts for maintenance income and
should not be sustained over 2Q - 4Q10. Revenue remained flat on fare
reduction and a smaller taxi fleet, offset by higher rental and fees from
overseas projects.
-Ridership was resilient, rental revenue grew 12%. Average daily ridership
for trains remained resilient, increasing by 4.8% yoy and 3.7% qoq to
1,431k/day. Average ridership for bus, however, dipped marginally (-1.1%
yoy, -2.9% qoq) to 773.3k/day. Rental revenue drove topline, increasing 12%
yoy to S$15.5m. Total lettable space increased to 28.799sqm (+9.7% yoy) due
to the upgrading at 2 stations. Circle Line 3 ridership was at c.30k/day
and not expected to be material till the full line opens around 2011.
-Healthy balance sheet, net cash position. It will repay its current
interest-bearing borrowings totaling S$150m in Dec’09 (S$100m) and Jan’10
(S$50m).
-Shenzhen Zona ? immaterial contribution. The proposed investment in
Shenzhen Zona (RMB320m or S$68.4m) for a 49% stake should be completed in
the next few months, but is not expected to have material contribution to
the Group’s bottomline. We estimate the contribution to be about 3-5% of
the Group’s net profit in FY11F.
-Stable operations expected. Despite the downturn, MRT ridership remained
resilient and tracks our full year assumption for 3% growth in FY10F. We
maintain our Hold recommendation with a TP of S$1.65 based on 14x FY10F PE.
SMRT, jpm maintain NEUTRAL with target price $1.80
- Net profit of S$48.2MM (+19.6% Y/Y) was in line with expectations on the
back of a 21% decrease in fuel costs. Specifically, diesel costs fell 53%
Y/Y in line with the lower oil price. Electricity cost increased 17% with
the commencement of operations of Circle Line Stage 3 in May. Operating
cash flow was strong at S$95MM putting the company in a net cash position
of S$69MM. However, its S$319MM cash balance is earmarked for capex
(~S$150MM for the full year), and the 49%-acquisition of Shenzhen Zona
announced in July (~S$68.4MM). Management highlighted that earnings
contribution from Shenzhen Zona is expected to be immaterial for the next
3-5 years post conclusion of the deal.
- Rental yield remained stable The resilient ridership has helped retain
tenants and keep the rental yield robust. Revenue from this segment grew
12% and operating profit was up 13%. Management expects to register higher
rental revenue growth for the year as more lettable space becomes available
post redevelopment of the stations.
- Modest MRT ridership growth MRT ridership increased 3% Y/Y. Revenue was
flat with the onset of fare reduction this quarter. Excluding one-off other
operating income of ~S$7.5MM, operating profit was actually down 16%. This,
we believe, was also partially contributed by operating losses from the
1-month operation of Circle Line (CCL) Stage 3. While management did not
provide any guidance, we estimate the operating loss at CCL to be about
S$1-2MM. Hence, the full year loss due to ramp-up costs for CCL could be
higher than our full year estimate of S$10MM. Ridership achieved for CCL
Stage 3 was over 30,000/day for the quarter.
- Taxis turned positive The taxi business turned in an operating profit of
S$1.1MM after 4 quarters of losses, helped by lower operating expenses as a
result of a smaller average holding fleet (2,605). The company retired
about 400 taxis last year. As a result, hired out rate has now reversed to
over 90%.
- Maintain Neutral with Jun-2010 PT of S$1.80 We remain cautious that
operating losses at Circle Line may widen should ridership not increase
sufficiently to take advantage of the high operating leverage.
SMRT, kim eng maintain HOLD with target price $1.70
-Weaker than it looks. SMRT reported flat 1Q10 revenue compared to a year
ago but net profit jumped 20% YoY vs our expectation of a slight decline,
due mainly to a one-time, non-operating gain of $7.5m from a special train
project and $4.4m in Jobs Credit Scheme benefits. Adjusted for these items,
net profit fell 8% YoY to $36m. No dividend was announced for the quarter.
-Mixed topline but margins improved. Train revenue was flat despite 5%
higher ridership while Bus revenue fell 4% YoY due mainly to fare cuts from
1 Apr 2009. Taxi revenue fell almost 7% YoY due to a 12% reduction in fleet
size. However, EBITDA margin improved 5%-points to 40% due mainly to lower
fuel and electricity costs. Train profit was boosted by the non-operating
gain, while Bus operations turned around to profitability on lower diesel
costs.
-Rental continued to be the bright spot. Despite the recessionary
environment, rental income continued to grow (+21% YoY, +11% QoQ), above
management’s previous guidance of a flat performance for 2010. SMRT was
able to keep rental rates steady as its high-traffic train stations
continued to be preferred tenant locations, while improving lettable area ?
two additional stations were upgraded in 1Q10, with another five to be
upgraded in2Q10.
-Pressures on profit remain. We continued to expect loss of revenue from
fare cuts and transfer rebates as well as higher costs due to Circle Line
to exceed Budget savings. So far, CCL ridership is below expectations
(30,000 daily vs 45-55,000 targeted) and the opening of stages 1 and 2 in
mid-2010 is still not expected to be enough for the line to break even.
Shenzhen Zona, the first overseas M&A, has materialised but is not expected
to contribute materially for 3-5 years.
-Maintain Hold. Cost pressures point toward a cap on growth in the short
term. With a double digit PE , we can only justify a Hold recommendation at
this time. However, dividend yield is relatively decent at 5%, while CCL
will be positive in the long run, with breakeven expected in 2012.
Additional overseas M&A could also be a catalyst; SMRT has in fact recently
hired a senior business development VP for Europe and China.
SMRT, nom maintain BUY with target price $1.96
-SMRT posted a 20% y-y rise in 1Q10 net profits to S$48.2mn, helped by 133%
rise in other operating income, mostly reflected in its rail division, and
S$1.8mn forex gains. Excluding non-recurring income, estimated at S$7mn,
earnings would have been in line with our estimate of S$39.5mn. We maintain
our BUY rating on SMRT and our PT at S$1.96. Dividend yields of 4.8% remain
attractive relative to peers 3.5%, while the group’s ROE of 20% is well
ahead of peer average of 14%.
- SMRT’s rail division saw flat revenue of S$115.6mn, as lower average
fares (effective April 1, 2009) were offset by growth in average daily
ridership. Average daily ridership for trains gained 5% y-y to 1,431,000,
while average fares fell 3% to S$0.903 cents. However, rail EBIT increased
8% y-y to S$36.7mn, ahead of our estimate of S$31.9mn, with EBIT margins
improving to 31.8% (29.4% previously). Management highlighted that this was
due to higher other operating income which was partially offset by higher
repair and maintenance and electricity costs. While no details were given
on the Circle Line performance (the initial stage three of the new line
commenced in June), management highlighted that 2Q10 electricity costs are
expected to increase on higher consumption as a result of Circle Line and
increased train runs, while revenue is likely to be lower on reduced fares.
Circle Line ridership is averaging 30,000 per day, which is ahead of our
estimate of 25,000 for FY10.
- Both the group’s bus and taxi EBIT staged a turnaround, with bus EBIT at
S$1.2mn (previous loss of S$3.5mn) and taxi EBIT at S$1.1mn (from loss of
S$1.3mn), marginally ahead of expectation. Bus was higher due to lower
diesel costs while a smaller taxi fleet (down 12% to 2,605 vehicles) helped
lower operating expenses.
- Rental income from its train station retail outlets continued to improve,
as average lettable space increased by 7% to 27,879 sq metres, with rental
EBIT up 13% y-y to S$12.5mn. Group advertising income however fell 5% to
S$5.4mn, but the division was profitable with EBIT at S$3.5mn (-10%y-y).
- We maintain our price target of S$1.96, based on DCF using a WACC of 7.5%
and terminal growth of 1%. Our earnings and price target could be
negatively impacted by higher-than-expected electricity costs, lower fares
or a sharp fall in rail and bus rider-ship.
SMRT, ocbc maintain BUY with target price $1.92
-Sturdy 1QFY10 results. SMRT Corporation released a sturdy set of 1QFY10
results last Friday. Despite being impacted by fare-reduction package and
smaller average hired-out taxi fleet, the group managed to maintain its
revenue relatively flat (-0.0% YoY, -0.5% QoQ) at S$215.8m, thanks to
higher train ridership, rental revenue and fees from overseas project. In
addition, it enjoyed a 133.6% boost in other operating income of US$13.1m
(one-off), jobs credit of S$4.4m and lower energy costs, which more than
offset a hike in its staff and related costs, and repair and maintenance
costs. As such, notwithstanding a muted topline, SMRT achieved a 19.6% YoY
(+24.8% QoQ) growth in net profit to S$48.2m. We also observe that its LRT,
bus and taxi businesses had, over the quarter, turned back into the black
at the operating profit level, while both its train and rental businesses
registered higher operating profits YoY. Only the advertising, and
engineering and other services segments lagged, with operating profits down
9.8% YoY and 30.4% YoY, respectively. The quarterly results were within
expectations, where revenue formed 23.8% of our sales estimate and net
income 29.1% of our earnings projection.
-Outlook on business segments. Looking ahead, SMRT has kept its cautious
tone on the outlook, saying that its profitability is likely to be affected
by continuing volatility in diesel prices, the fare reduction package and
ramp-up costs for the progressive opening of the remaining Circle Line
stations. For 2QFY10, particularly, the group expects lower revenue from
its train, bus and advertising businesses, and higher operating expenses
and electricity costs with the start of Circle Line Stage 3. Its taxi
revenue is also expected to fall YoY, although its operating performance is
likely to improve. Lastly, revenue from rental is projected to rise,
contributed mainly by increased lettable space from the redevelopment of
various stations.
-Retain BUY. We have kept our FY10 sales and profit forecasts unchanged as
the results and outlook were largely in line with our expectations.
However, we now raise our DDM-derived fair value from S$1.81 to S$1.92 on
marginally higher dividend assumptions (+3%) and lower cost of equity (from
6.5% to 6.4%). We believe SMRT has the capacity to grow its businesses both
locally and overseas, and to manage its cost efficiently. While we have not
factored in any contribution from Shenzhen Zona Transportation pending the
completion of its acquisition, we think it is likely to provide further
catalyst to its profitability and share price. Maintain BUY.
SMRT, ssb maintain SELL with target price $1.50
- Target S$1.50?1Q result came ahead of our and consensus forecasts largely
due to a one-time revenue of S$7.5m. Excluding this, result was in line.
Core operating revenues (bus, rail and taxi) largely flat, but earnings
benefited from lower diesel & other expenses, & growing contribution from
retail rentals. SMRT remains a solid company with stable and defensive
earnings. However at this stage of the mkt recovery cycle, the stock will
likely continue to underperform vis-à-vis the STI (+8% vs. STI +81% since
Mar-09). Maintain Sell.
-Analysis?1Q profit 28% of consensus & 31% of Citi FY10E estimates. Core
revenue flat, but group revenue rose 3%yoy on one-off S$7.5m maintenance
income. Op. profit rose to S$58m (+20%yoy) from rail (S$37m,+8%yoy), rental
(S$12.5m,+13%yoy), advertising (S$3.5m,-10%yoy) while bus (S$1.2m) and taxi
(S$1.1m) reversed previous losses on lower diesel and other op. expenses.
- Rail?1QFY10 MRT ridership 1.43m (+4.8%yoy), for a profit of S$36.7m
(+8%yoy) and op. margin of 33%. LRT booked a small gain of S$0.04m. Mgmt
did not provide details of the operating performance of the just opened
Circle Line stage 3, but suggested that any near term losses would be
immaterial.
-Bus/Taxi?Bus revenue fell 4%yoy on lower ridership and fare, but offset by
lower diesel cost to book S$1.2m profit (1Q09 S$3.5m loss). Taxi revenue
also declined by 7%yoy inline with smaller hired-out fleet (-12%yoy), but
lower operating expenses contributed to S$1.1m profit (1Q09 S$1.3m loss).
- Rental & advertising?Retail rental profit rose by 13%yoy to S$12.5m on
better yields and increased retail space (+6.7%yoy), while advertising
profit fell 10%yoy to S$3.5m due to weaker economic environment.
SMRT, uob maintain BUY with target price $2
-As noted in our preview, 1QFY10 results came in stronger on a yoy basis,
owing to lower energy- and wage-related costs. More clarity on Zona was
offered during the conference call. Maintain BUY and target price of
S$2.00.
-SMRT Corporation reported 1QFY10 net profit of S$48.2m (+19.6% yoy, +24.7%
qoq) on total turnover of S$229.0m (+3.3% yoy, +1.7% qoq), representing
29.2% of our full-year estimate. The stronger results cameas little
surprise to us but we expect energy-related expenses to rise in the coming
quarters (SMRT has not finalised its electricity contract for its next
consumption period from Oct 09 to Mar 10, or 3Q and 4QFY10). Other
Operating Income also included revenue recognition from a one-off project.
-Zonadeal expected to be concluded within the year. Management indicated
that the acquisition of 49% of Shenzhen Zona is expected to be concluded
within the next few months, pending approval from the Chinese authorities.
Contribution from Zona is expected to start immediately but will be
insignificant in the next three to five years. Nonetheless, it is a
valuable beachhead for the company’s foray into China.
–Circle Line. Ridership for CCL3 continued to stay in the 30,000+ region
per day, lower than our expectation. Management reiterated that although
operating loss for the new line is anticipated due to essential operating
overheads, they are not expected to be material.
-No material changes. We fine-tune our profit estimates for FY10-12 by
+0.1- 2.9%, factoring in lower ridership from CCL3, a higher net lettable
area for the rental segment and lower energy expenses.
-Maintain BUY; target price S$2.00. We continue to like SMRT for its
disposition to leverage on the Singapore growth story, especially as a
beneficiary of foreign population growth. We also view its overseas
ventures positively as we believe it to be an essential component in the
company’s next leg of growth.
SPH, uob maintain BUY with target price $4.40($3.90)
-July page-counts point to further improvement in advertising spending,
driven by Singapore’s property boom. We raise target price by 13% to
S$4.40. Maintain BUY.
-Diminishing contraction. Our page-count monitor ofThe Straits Times
indicates further improvement in advertising spending in July with a
smaller yoy contraction of 10% from -16% in June (May -14%, April -16%,
March - 22%). Anecdotal evidence points to a rise in property ads given the
current residential property boom with new project launches practically
every week. Developers are also re-marketing old projects which are not yet
fully sold. The property boom is also generating higher activities in the
secondary property market, thus leading to more classified ads.
-Rising job ads point to greater business confidence. The total number of
recruitment ad pages has also improved from 230 in March to 279 in July.
Singapore’s unemployment rate remains comfortable. The seasonallyadjusted
unemployment rate for 2Q09 has remained unchanged at 3.3%, the same as in
1Q09. Resident unemployment even declined to 4.6% in 2Q09, from 4.8% in
1Q09. This could be due to the government’s Jobs Credit scheme cushioning
job losses and the hiring of 13,000 to fill civil service jobs since the
start of this year.
-The worst is over. While SPH isusually a late-cycle recovery play, we
believe advertising revenue (AR) growth will stage an early comeback this
time round, with advertising spending recovery aided by the opening of
Singapore’s two mega integrated resorts- Marina Bay Sands and Resorts
World@Sentosa in end-09/1Q10.
-SPH is a proxy to an improving domestic economy as well as a yield play.
We maintain our earnings forecasts. In view of increasing evidence of an
advertising spending recovery, we raise our target price by 13% to S$4.40,
in line with our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of S$4.38/share. Our
previous target price of S$3.90 was at a 10% discount to our SOTP valuation
which has factored in Paragon’s recent revaluation of S$1.98b in June. SPH
offers an attractive annual dividend yield of 6-7%.