The idea of Australia as a value play is getting more appealing each day. Especially where iron and coal are concerned. ABARE predicted recently that Australian resource export earnings should rise over 53% by the end of this financial year.

Thank-you iron and coal exports. Those gains are showing through in the RBA’s latest release of Australia’s basket of exporting commodities:

But the truth is you can’t buy Australia as a stock. You can buy an index of the market, sure.

Or you could start accumulating the Australian companies that get the exporting cash injection. Specifically, the ones that can outlast the financial crisis. That is the key. It leaves investors (and China’s steel mills) two options. Take a look at a cheaper Fortescue. Or take a prudent look at the iron junior market again.

Three Reasons to Buy Iron Juniors Now

Having seen the action in iron this week, there are three reasons why we’d go with the latter.

Iron juniors might get the business China doesn’t want to give to the big three. Or they might get taken over by Chinese, Japanese or Korean steel-makers who want first-hand access. Or the big three might start picking them up so they don’t lose their grip on the global market.

A leading Chinese company has been given approval to lift its shareholding in Murchison Metals. The Federal government’s decision will see Murchison shares jump today on the ASX. Murchison shares jumped 10.9% in Friday’s big surge to close up 12c at $1.22. They had been weak for the last few weeks as investors have gone cold on resource stocks and Sinosteel moved to mop up Midwest. Now it can switch its attention to Murchison. Sinosteel has a 2.6% stake in Murchison, but close to 20% is controlled by the Harbinger hedge fund of the US. It delivered control of Midwest to Sinosteel last week by reversing its opposition to the Midwest bid and accepting the Sinosteel cash offer. There was no mention of board representation for Sinosteel on Murchison in the event it gets to 49.9%, the maximum allowed under the Government’s decision, revealed yesterday. That maximum level is also a hindrance because it can’t get to that level by making a full bid. It can acquire it gradually, but that could take years. But the Government’s decision means Sinosteel has also been allowed to tighten its control on the Mid-west iron ore province east of Geraldton in Western Australia. The Federal Government has green-lighted an application by Sinosteel Corporation of China to acquire up to 49.9% of Murchison Metals, but not control, according to a statement from the Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan yesterday. Mr Swan said that he made the ruling under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975. It had been expected for some time and came less than a week after Sinosteel secured control of rival Midwest Corporation and moved to compulsorily acquire the outstanding shares in Midwest. Sinosteel had previously sought to acquire up to 100% of Murchison, which was the subject of an Interim Order under the Act. Sinosteel withdrew that application after some opposition was voiced. Mr Swan said that “there have been significant developments since the original application was made.

“The Western Australian Government recently awarded rights to construct new port facilities at Oakajee to a joint venture between Murchison and Mitsubishi Corporation.

“It is also considering proposals to build new railway lines to link the iron ore deposits in the Mid West region to the port.

“Sinosteel has recently acquired more than 97% of Midwest Corporation Limited which has iron ore deposits adjacent to Murchison’s.

“Midwest and Murchison have previously sought to merge their operations by takeover proposals that did not proceed.

“The Government welcomes foreign investment in Australia and I will continue to ensure that investments are consistent with Australia’s national interest.

“The Mid-West region may ultimately become a significant new source of iron ore exports to the north Asian iron and steel markets.

“Murchison is an emerging iron ore miner with deposits in the region.’

Mr Swan that that “In determining this application, I have determined that a shareholding of up to 49.9% in Murchison will maintain diversity of ownership within the Mid West region.

“The Government considers the development of such potentially significant new resource areas should occur through arrangements that are open to multiple investors.

“This approach is consistent with the national interest principles we released in February and with the approach I have outlined previously, including in discussions with my Chinese counterparts.

“The Government’s objective is that development of our considerable natural resource endowment occurs in a manner that allows Australia to remain a reliable supplier in the future to all current and potential trading partners.

“This ensures the maximum development of our resources and a fair return to all of the Australian community.”

Sinosteel had offered $6.38 a share offer for Midwest.

The acquisition was the first successful hostile Chinese takeover of an Australian company and became possible after Murchison’s former Midwest deputy chairman David Law and US investor Philip Falcone (Harbinger) agreed to the offer at the last minute early last week.

It’s not just the U.S. anymore. The entire global economy is slowing down. Several countries in Europe and Asia are already either in recession or teetering on the brink of a contraction in output. But there’s one country that’s managed to remain relatively unscathed: China.

Yes, the world’s main driver of commodity consumption this decade continues to grow. That tells me that the recent decline in commodities is way overdone.

Since hitting a peak on July 3, the benchmark Reuters/CRB Index has plunged 25%. All commodities representing this index have declined sharply, including crude oil (32%), gold (22%), copper (22%) and the grains (28%).

China is still one of the more formidable factors supporting raw materials. As commodities have crashed recently, the Chinese are once again hoarding industrial metals like copper, tin, and steel scrap.

The U.S. credit problems won’t stop the Chinese from grabbing commodities - especially when the U.S. dollar inflation-adjusted interest rates are in negative territory. The U.S. Fed Funds currently stands at 2% versus 5.6% inflation through July.

China can’t afford a recession. A major contraction in output would devastate the economy and result in tens of millions of people becoming unemployed. To combat a recession, the Chinese have started to expand credit again after tightening the money-supply since 2006 in small increments. The People’s Bank of China also has the capacity to spend heavily and finance continued expansion.

If you think the Federal Reserve has muscle, think again. China is home to more than US$1.7 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves. They can literally bailout the entire American banking system with one check. They’ll do everything they can to keep this expansion going strong.

Meanwhile, commodities are now heavily oversold. In the span of just 60 days, the world has become obsessed with deflation. Just a few short months ago, inflation fears ruled the markets. That’s a major flip-flop. Commodities are not good deflation-based hedges. Like most assets, commodities decline amid deflation.

In my eyes, the U.S. government has played a big role “talking down” commodities by attacking oil trading speculation. The government blames hedge funds and other speculators for US$147 oil in July. Nonsense.

Was the government helping these same speculators when oil was trading at US$15 back in 1998? Of course not. In an election year, it’s really no surprise the Feds are targeting oil prices. They wanted lower oil prices and they got it.

The macroeconomic picture is also a factor hitting commodities.

The global economy is slowing this fall. Europe is several months behind the United States in this credit squeeze and Japan is basically in recession again. But the emerging markets should get a dose of good news as oil and food prices have plunged by about 25% since July.

These countries, including China, will continue to expand even at the expense of weaker exports. China, India and many other emerging markets are piling billions into domestic infrastructure projects. I’m expecting these and other domestic projects to keep these markets humming until the West can stabilize credit markets.

Commodities are in a brutal correction. We saw similar dramatic pullbacks in 1974-1976 before the sector resumed its historical bull market run to its peak in 1980. It isn’t over yet.

JIULING, China - A military helicopter carrying 10 people injured in China’s devastating earthquake and four crew members crashed in fog and turbulence, and authorities were searching for survivors, state media reported Sunday.

The Russian-designed Mi-171 transport helicopter crashed Saturday afternoon in Wenchuan county in China’s southwest, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

There was no immediate word on any survivors or casualties. Xinhua said a search and rescue operation was under way.

The confirmed death toll from the May 12 earthquake, China’s worst in three decades, was nearly 69,000, with another 18,000 still missing.

Two injured miners who had been stranded in Sichuan province’s mountains since the quake were airlifted out Sunday in a helicopter, Xinhua said.

Six parachuting soldiers found the men a day earlier and treated them, Xinhua said.

Meanwhile, troops equipped with diggers and backhoes finished digging a channel to siphon off water from an earthquake-formed lake that authorities feared could burst and further devastate stricken areas.

The lake formed above Beichuan town in Sichuan province when a hillside plunged into a river valley during the May 12 quake. It is the largest of more than 30 quake-formed lakes.

More than 600 troops from China’s armed police force, who had been working around the clock for six days, finished digging the trench Saturday evening, Xinhua said. The channel _ nearly 500 yards long and up to 10 yards wide _ is meant to drain off some of the lake as its water level continues to rise, Xinhua said.

As a precaution, authorities evacuated about 200,000 people.

Downstream, people packed their belongings and left the villages of Jiuling and Qinglian on Sunday. Soldiers in camouflage fatigues and orange life vests patrolled the empty streets. Warnings spray-painted in red on one building in Qinglian showed how high waters might reach should the lake burst.

The quake was especially painful to many Chinese because it killed so many children _ many of whom had no siblings because of the government’s population-control policy that limits many families to one child.

Citing Sichuan’s head of family planning, Xinhua on Saturday reported that an estimated 7,000 children without siblings died and another 16,000 were injured.

The destruction of almost 7,000 classrooms has led to complaints from angry parents that schools were poorly built.

In the town of Juyuan, about 100 parents marked International Children’s Day on Sunday by gathering to mourn their children killed when a middle school collapsed. The parents also vented their anger at school and local officials.

On a large white banner hanging on a part of the school that still stands, someone had written that “a blood debt” should be paid by those responsible for allegedly shoddy construction.

One parent circulated a letter that thanked the Communist Party and government for their help but also said parents were suing school leaders and local education authorities.

To reporters taking photos, one parent yelled: “The next time you go to a news conference, ask a lot of questions. Help us get justice for our dead babies!”

China’s Cabinet has ordered appraisals of all school buildings in the quake zone, according to Xinhua. It quoted a Construction Ministry investigator, Chen Baosheng, as saying that steel concrete-reinforcement rods in the Juyuan Middle School _ where 900 students were buried _ “were too thin.”

Chen Huaqun said her 15-year-old son died in the school.

BEIJING (AFP) - - People around the world have reached deep into their pockets to help survivors of China’s devastating earthquake, but fears are growing corruption will mean not all donations reach the millions in need.

In the two weeks since the quake that rocked southwestern Sichuan province, leaving more than 87,000 people dead or missing, a staggering 34.79 billion yuan (five billion dollars) in donations has been collected at home and abroad.

However, reports have already emerged of diverted aid supplies or scams being launched to grab a piece of the largesse.

Corruption is rampant in China, both in government ranks and throughout society, as the country ploughs through its development boom without a free press or an independent judiciary.

President Hu Jintao has repeatedly warned that corruption is one of the biggest threats to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party.

With the eyes of the world on China’s relief effort, the government has repeatedly warned that any corruption involving the relief money would be dealt with harshly.

On Wednesday, the party’s anti-graft chief said officials would receive “quick, strict, and harsh penalties” if found guilty of corrupt practices that impact the earthquake relief effort.

“Making a profit from a national calamity by withholding and embezzling quake relief funds and supplies goes against the principles of justice,” He Guoqiang, secretary of the party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, was quoted as saying by state-run Xinhua news agency.

“Once such misconduct is spotted, it must be dealt with quickly and harshly and laid bare in public.”

The Civil Affairs Ministry has also sought to emphasise its efforts in ensuring relief money is not wasted.

“The funds collected by relevant government agencies or the treasury must not be drastically reduced by administrative costs,” civil affairs ministry spokesman Yu Jianliang has said.

Aid charities must publish the percentage of donations used for such expenses, he added.

Most of the aid donations are being funnelled through the Chinese Red Cross, the non-governmental China Charity Federation or various governmental groups, the ministry said on its website.

About a third of the five billion dollars in donations has already reached the disaster zone, according to the ministry.

However, authorities have already uncovered several instances of misuse of funds.

In the quake-devastated city of Mianyang, the People’s Daily reported 10 cases of tents being used by people whose homes had not been destroyed.

In the city of Deyang, government officials were found hiding cases of milk, biscuits and drinks in a store run by their relatives, the website wenxuecity.com reported — prompting a near-riot by thousands of angry victims.

Another case involved a policeman in Chengdu, capital of quake-hit Sichuan province, who was accused of commandeering refugee tents. The case caused a protest by hundreds of people, the Nanfang Metropolitan Daily reported.

The instances of aid misuse have sparked an outcry in online forums.

“If corruption becomes endemic, it will be just as dangerous as the earthquake itself,” said one man from northeastern China in a forum hosted by Sohu.com.

An editorial in the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, on Thursday said graft concerns would only increase as the flow of long-term government money for reconstruction picks up.

“Reconstruction funding is estimated to reach several hundred billion yuan, and the efficient use of such a large sum of public money is a cause of public concern,” it said.

JIANGYOU, China (AFP) - - China on Sunday declared three days of mourning and suspended the Olympic torch relay nearly a week after a massive quake struck the country’s southwest, as the death toll continued to mount.

The announcements came after a powerful aftershock rattled devastated Sichuan province, killing at least three people and hampering China’s efforts to help nearly five million homeless facing the threats of disease and floods.

From Monday, the government ordered the national flag to fly at half-mast for three days and called for three minutes of silence nationwide at 2:28 pm (0628 GMT) Monday, exactly one week after the massive quake struck.

During the period of national mourning, the Olympic torch relay — eagerly awaited across China — has been suspended, organisers of the Beijing summer Games announced.

Authorities on Sunday raised the number of confirmed deaths to 32,476 from the quake and revised upward the strength of the quake to 8.0 on the Richter scale. The US Geological Survey has put its strength at a magnitude of 7.9.

Sunday’s aftershock, with a magnitude of 6.0, shook some of the worst-hit parts of Sichuan, killing at least three people in the town of Jiangyou, local government official Liao Boxun told AFP by phone.

People in the town, which was dotted with thousands of blue tents for quake homeless, said the aftershock had spread new fears among a population already traumatised.

“When the aftershock hit, mothers hugged their crying children and tried to comfort them, telling them everything would be OK,” Dai Yong, who works in Jiangyou, told AFP.

The region has suffered at least 24 aftershocks of 5.0 or above on the Richter scale since Monday’s quake, amid all-out efforts to rescue more than 9,500 people still buried under the rubble of collapsed structures.

Premier Wen Jiabao on Sunday urged scientists at the China Seismological Bureau to improve research on earthquakes and develop better warning systems, the Xinhua state news agency said.

Two more people were pulled to safety after improbably surviving six days under the chunks of concrete and other debris, but the pace of such miracle rescues slowed markedly.

Officials have estimated the final death toll could eventually top 50,000.

In a bid to help quake survivors, two US military planes packed with food, power generators and other goods flew into Sichuan province, the first aid that China has accepted from foreign armed forces.

Rescue experts from Japan, Russia, Singapore and South Korea, as well as Taiwan and Hong Kong, have been allowed in to help the effort.

Rain also compounded the misery for many of the estimated 4.8 million who have been left without homes.

Tens of thousands of people huddled in appalling conditions in the town of Maoxian under leaky makeshift rain covers, in dire need of food, medicine and shelter, the Sichuan News Online site reported.

“The people have gone from one disaster to another,” the report said.

Flood fears also persisted, with the Sichuan government saying landslides triggered by Monday’s earthquake had blocked rivers and streams in at least 21 places, causing water levels to swell dangerously behind the rubble.

China had already on Saturday evacuated thousands of people in devastated areas near the quake epicentre due to one such blocked river.

Worse is possibly to come, with China’s national meteorological centre predicting torrential rains later this week in the quake disaster zone, warning they could trigger landslides.

The World Health Organisation said Saturday that the lack of safe drinking water or proper waste disposal along with cramped conditions in makeshift camps was “conducive” to disease outbreaks.

The military, however, said that nuclear facilities in the region had been checked for signs of any damage and were confirmed safe.

Relief workers by Saturday had finally restored land connections with the worst-hit counties of Beichuan and Wenchuan, allowing the full horror of the quake to begin to emerge.

Luo Hong, a 22-year-old woman who sells beer, learned that her 55-year-old father, Luo Zaiping, was killed at the coal mine where he worked.

“He worked hard his entire life. Originally he wasn’t supposed to work Monday and then this happened,” she said.

Xinhua reported that five employees were killed and at least three pandas were missing at the world-renowned Wolong panda breeding centre, which was heavily damaged.

The news appeared to contradict early reports that more than 80 giant pandas at the centre were confirmed safe.

Olympic torch relay halted for three days for quake mourning

BEIJING (AFP) - - The Beijing Olympic torch relay will be halted for three days as part of a national mourning period following a devastating earthquake, Games organisers said Sunday.

The torch relay suspension will begin on Monday, the organising committee said in a statement on its website.

The decision marks the latest setback for the relay, which was supposed to be a months-long celebration of Beijing’s hosting of the Olympics but has continually been disrupted.

Pro-Tibet demonstrators disrupted the relay in London, Paris and San Francisco to protest against China’s crackdown on unrest in the Himalayan region, which broke out in mid-March and spread to neighbouring regions.

The torch was put out several times in the chaotic relay through Paris.

The flame, which returned to China earlier this month for a three-month national journey ending in Beijing in August, also had to be put out on Saturday when an over-enthusiastic crowd in the eastern city of Wenzhou blocked the relay route, the Beijing Youth Daily reported.

China’s Cabinet on Sunday announced three days of national mourning after an estimated 50,000 people died in its worst earthquake in three decades.

Chinese government buildings will fly the national flag at half-mast for the three days starting Monday, it said.

The nation will also observe three minutes of silence at 2:28 pm (0628 GMT) Monday, exactly one week after the earthquake struck southwestern Sichuan province.

The confirmed death toll rose on Sunday to nearly 32,500.

Residents run as they evacuate to higher ground from the center of earthquake-hit Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of floods from a river blocked by landslides

DONGHEKOU, China - Two rivers blocked by landslides threatened to flood towns shattered by China’s massive earthquake, sending thousands of survivors fleeing Saturday in a region still staggering from the country’s worst disaster in 30 years.

A mountain sheared off by the mighty tremor cut the Qingzhu river and swallowed the riverside village of Donghekou whole, entombing an unknown number of people inside a huge mound of brown earth.

Compounding the horror for survivors, a lake rising behind the wall of debris threatens to break its banks and send torrents cascading into villages downstream.

Pannicky residents streamed out of the entire county on the northern edge of the quake zone, spurred on by mobile phone text messages sent en masse by local government officials warning that the water level was rising and people downstream were being evacuated.

In the town of Beichuan, 60 miles to the south, thousands fled as the reports circulated.

Rescue work resumed later in the day and experts were monitoring the river above Beichuan, the People’s Daily newspaper said on its web site. The swift exodus underscored the jitters running through the disaster zone. A strong aftershock — the second in two days and measured by the U.S. Geological Survey at magnitude 5.7 — shook the area early Sunday for 45 seconds, causing people to run into the streets.

In all the devastation wrought by the quake, little looks as bleak as Donghekou.

The road to the village ends in a tangled twist of metal and tar. In the small valley below, the village itself has disappeared when the mountain collapsed. Locals said two other villages further upstream, Ciban and Kangle, had suffered the same fate. The three villages were home to about 300 families, locals said.

Eerie and still, the remaining landscape has few signs of human life — a soiled green floral scarf, a rubber pipe, a log.

“Oh God! I have lost everything,” said Wen Xiaoying, 32, whose voice shook as she surveyed the valley below for the first time since returning from far-off Guangdong province where she worked.

She held up one hand as she ticked off the family members that died — her father, her mother, her sister and her brother-in-law — all of them buried somewhere in the muck before her.

“When I saw them the last time, we celebrated together,” said Wen, a glimmer of a smile showing through as she remembered happier days. “I didn’t expect it would be the last time I saw them.”

Su Ciyao trudged over the bend in plastic slippers, carrying a plastic rice bag stuffed with salvaged clothes.

“My village is over there,” the 44-year-old said, gesturing to the swollen earth behind him. Asked where his family was, he could only shake his head.

“Only me,” he said, and then set off without a backward glance.

Drizzling rain in the valley added to the gloom, and to the fear of carloads of people who clogged the twisting mountain roads as they streamed out of the region.

The government’s daily update added another few thousand bodies to the death toll as it continued climbing toward an expected final tally of at least 50,000. Cabinet spokesman Guo Weimin said 28,881 deaths have been confirmed so far.

The official Xinhua News Agency, citing regional officials, said more than 10,600 people were known to be still buried almost one week after the 7.9 magnitude quake hit, shattering thousands of buildings in dozens of towns and cities in Sichuan province.

The number of security forces helping victims rose to almost 150,000, and the government added cash payments to victims to its response.

The government would give $715 in compensation to each family that lost a member in the earthquake, China National Radio reported Saturday on its web site. At a State Council meeting hosted by Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing, the government also decided it would also hand out a daily ration of food and $1.40 to survivors, the report said.

Almost a week after the quake struck, rescues were still occurring.

Rescuers pulled at least seven more survivors from collapsed buildings, the last a man saved after 128 hours. Both of his legs had to be amputated. Another, 20-year-old highway worker Jiang Yuhang was pulled free shortly after his mother arrived from a neighboring province.

“I was expecting to see my son’s body. I never expected to see him alive,” his mother, Long Jinyu, said on state television.

Experts say buried earthquake survivors can last a week or more, depending on factors including the temperature and whether they have water to drink, but that the chances of survival diminish rapidly after the first 24 hours.

Rescue teams from Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Russia worked alongside Chinese troops, and more international aid was arriving, including a U.S. Air Force cargo plane loaded with tents, lanterns and 15,000 meals.

Soldiers help residents as they evacuate to higher ground from the center of earthquake-hit Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of floods from a river blocked by landslides

A resident carries a baby get off a track as he evacuates for higher ground, near the epicenter of Monday’s quake in Beichuan county, southwest China’s Sichuan province, China, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of floods from a river blocked by landslides.

Soldiers carry an injured woman as they evacuate to higher ground from the center of earthquake-hit Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims, as well as soldiers, and rescue workers fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of potential floods from a river blocked by landslides.

Thousands of residents and soldiers evacuate to higher ground from the center of earthquake-hit in Beichuan county, southwest China’s Sichuan province, China, Saturday, May 17, 2008, as they fear a lake would burst its banks.

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An eight-year-old student is carried by soldiers after he was found in a school some five days after Monday’s deadly quake, as rescuers continue to search for survivors in Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008

Soldiers evacuate to higher ground near the epicenter of Monday’s quake in Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims, as well as soldiers, and rescue workers fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of potential floods from a river blocked by landslides.

Residents and soldiers evacuate to higher ground from the center of earthquake-hit in Beichuan county, southwest China’s Sichuan province, China, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of residents, soldiers and rescuers fled as they fears a lake would burst its banks.

Residents and soldiers evacuate to higher ground near the epicenter of Monday’s quake in Beichuan County, southwest China’s Sichuan province, Saturday, May 17, 2008. Thousands of Chinese earthquake victims fled areas near the epicenter Saturday, fearful of potential floods from a river blocked by landslides

School bags are collected from the rubble of a collapsed building at Nanba Center Primary in the earthquake-hit Pingwu County, Sichuan province, May 16, 2008. Picture taken May 16, 2008. REUTERS/China Daily (CHINA). 

REFILE - UPDATING SECOND SENTENCE Residents and rescue workers evacuate to higher ground from the centre of earthquake-hit Beichuan county,Sichuan province, May 17, 2008 . Thousands fled amid fears a lake would burst its banks in Beichuan, near the epicentre of China’s earthquake in which a total 50,000 people may have died, a Reuters photographer said. It was not immediately clear if anyone was hurt. People were told to flee to the hillsides in a public announcement

REFILE - UPDATING SECOND SENTENCE Residents and rescue workers evacuate from the centre of earthquake-hit Beichuan county,Sichuan province, May 17, 2008. Thousands fled amid fears a lake would burst its banks in Beichuan, near the epicentre of China’s earthquake in which a total 50,000 people may have died, a Reuters photographer said. It was not immediately clear if anyone was hurt. People were told to flee to the hillsides in a public announcement 

JJ Lin 林俊傑 “愛與希望 live”

中国四川汶山5.12大地震网友为四川地震原创赈灾歌曲《为爱撑起一片天》MV

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Same as you 和你一样– At CCTV3’s “The Same Song” 央视同一首歌抗洪义演