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Commodity Hayride Hearkens Past Lessons

Posted on 24 September 2008 by Alex

Investors tend to forget that commodities are an extremely volatile asset class.

Price swings have always been violent and the recent surge lasting through July drew a huge amount of fast money from hedge funds and other institutions - which are all liquidating as I write this. Bank failures and bailouts have also pressured prices as liquidity-starved institutions make a run for hard cash.

But you must remember that commodities plunged in value in the mid-1970s en route to incredible all-time highs by January 1980. That’s happening again in 2008.

The CRB Index surged to an all-time high of 226.80 in September 1974 - at the height of the inflation squeeze, banking crisis and Arab oil embargo - and then commodities crashed to a new low of 175.90 by February 1975, a 22% plunge.

Gold prices, which Nixon set free in August 1971, soared to a high of US$184 an ounce in December 1974 based on the London monthly close. Prices then crashed all the way down to US$109 an ounce by August 1976. That’s a dizzying 41% drop.

Commodities can suffer a major bull market reversal, and that can make new investors nervous. Honestly, it wouldn’t be a surprise if commodities posted a negative year in 2008 after seven spectacular years of consecutive profits.

It is actually a positive development to see speculative money exiting the asset class because it takes policymakers’ attention away from high prices. Case in point: Earlier this summer Congress held special hearings to voice their concern over oil price manipulation. Now that prices are falling, Congress will once again turn a blind eye to the next run-up in the prices.

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