Bull Market or Bear Market Rally?

Posted on 04 September 2008 by Alex

The dollar has gained against global currencies since August 8, when Germany’s mighty economy contracted in the second quarter, triggering one of the biggest dollar rallies in years.

And maybe it was time for a rally. Since peaking more than six years ago versus the world’s major currencies, the U.S. dollar has posted some dizzying declines. Only a few currencies in the world have actually declined in value against the sad buck since late 2001…one of which being the Zimbabwe dollar.

But this current bout of dollar strength has more to do with the surprising weakness of other foreign economies than a resumption of U.S. growth. We’re simply ahead of the curve.

The market views the dollar as a leading currency as other economies begin to grapple with an economic slowdown or, in some cases, recession. The United States has already gone through the process of priming the economy with interest rate cuts and fiscal measures to boost consumption, driving the dollar lower in the process. Now it’s the turn of the Europeans and Japanese. They are only now starting to enter slowdowns in their economic cycles.

$USD Chart

That means they’ll be cutting rates, so their currencies will weaken. And the value of their assets – in dollar terms – will decline.

Therefore, savvy investors in the next few months will look to build positions in some of the U.S. economy’s most beaten-down, oversold assets. Specifically, foreign and U.S. investors alike can find significant value and opportunity in distressed U.S. debt, real estate and stocks.

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