Poor Correlation on the Way Up

Posted on 19 August 2008 by Alex

The majority of energy stocks have struggled this year as oil prices raced to a record high of US $147 a barrel. Stocks simply couldn’t rally as the bear market in global stocks applied downward pressure on the entire complex.

Oil futures tell a completely different story. While major U.S. and international oil companies rose only 3.5% from January 1 to July 11, oil futures rose an astounding 63%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 Index tanked more than 10%.

Admittedly, the recent peak in oil prices was extreme and indicated a short-term “bubble.”

Commodities have been the prime beneficiaries of the global institutional boom. Industry players have already created a flurry of exchange traded funds to take advantage of this commodity bull market.

Also, hedge funds have turned to commodities to gain exposure to one of the few remaining profitable segments of the market. In fact, hedge funds’ “big trade” over the last 12 months has been riding the wave in commodities, including oil and shorting or betting against financial stocks. That trade violently reversed last month.

Another dose of bad news for commodities lately is the dollar’s rapid recovery. With the dollar in a freefall over the last few years investors had scrambled to hedge their portfolios against rising inflation and a decaying currency. But that trend is over, at least for now.

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  1. Commodities » Poor Correlation on the Way Up Says:

    [...] [Technorati] Tag results for commodities wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt The majority of energy stocks have struggled this year as oil prices raced to a record high of US $147 a barrel. Stocks simply couldn’t rally as the bear market in global stocks applied downward pressure on the entire complex. Oil futures tell a completely different story. While major U.S. and international oil companies rose only 3.5% from January 1 to July 11, oil futures rose an astounding 63%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 Index tanked more than 10%. Admittedly, the recent peak in [...]

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